Stopped out of these at breakeven... should have took profit when it was in the gap, but it didn't fill it.
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Last: 5 hrs ago by AgCPA95
Philip J Fry said:
Yeah, I get it reduces lending. How does that keep inflation down?
Makes cars more expensive. Makes housing my expensive. Makes investments into capital more expensive.
the entire rationale is as another poster alluded to.
at this stage- the Fed is only concerned with it's prime mandate: lowering inflation.
if they have to bring the economy to a screeching halt- so be it.
by raising rates and talking up a recession- that of course causes companies to begin to cut back, consumers to cut back, employees to be laid off. which starts to slow the economy, which starts to slow inflation.
if wages start coming down because there are numerous unemployed willing to take low salary to start working again = Fed success as inflation comes down.
does that make sense now?
If you have $100 and 100 apples each apple is $1. If you have $200 and the same 100 apples each apple is $2.
Monetary policy currently is to reduce the supply of dollars so that apples are $1. They are not addressing the production of apples. Maybe we dont produce enough for the economy and the money supply is actually correct.
Monetary policy currently is to reduce the supply of dollars so that apples are $1. They are not addressing the production of apples. Maybe we dont produce enough for the economy and the money supply is actually correct.
Think less disposable income for consumers. More of their money is going into their gas tank and grocery cart to the tune of $5,500 more this year than last year. They have to buy the necessities but their disposable income is drained. This will lead to fewer pleasure purchases (cars, boats, new house, vacations, etc.) The inventory of those items will increase. Their credit card interest rates are also increasing which will lead to more defaults.Philip J Fry said:
Thinking in terms of demand vs supply. How do interest rates effect demand?
I'm not sure I'm smart enough to know. It doesn't do anything for my need for food and gas.
On the supply side, it makes the cost of supply more expensive, no?
Inflation naturally curbs demand. Putting people out of work accelerates the slowing demand. Economy gets crushed, demand normalizes, price growth slows.Philip J Fry said:
My smooth ape brain just doesn't understand how raising interest rates on loans is going to bring the cost of doing business down.
ProgN said:Think less disposable income for consumers. More of their money is going into their gas tank and grocery cart to the tune of $5,500 more this year than last year. They have to buy the necessities but their disposable income is drained. This will lead to fewer pleasure purchases (cars, boats, new house, vacations, etc.) The inventory of those items will increase. Their credit card interest rates are also increasing which will lead to more defaults.Philip J Fry said:
Thinking in terms of demand vs supply. How do interest rates effect demand?
I'm not sure I'm smart enough to know. It doesn't do anything for my need for food and gas.
On the supply side, it makes the cost of supply more expensive, no?
And this is better than the government spending less to ease the surge in demand? Making borrowing money easier to help the supply side costs? Let's not forget that companies will pass on the cost of capital investment to the consumer just like they do taxes.
I mean, my brain isn't really smooth. It's annoyed that those in power hammer the middle class for their own failures.
Messing with some fibs on TQQQ... it dipped to the 1.272 extension
If we draw the same line from the lower high and the lower low... 29 Mar, the 1.272 extension 14.59
Go more extreme from all time high to the new lower low and you see 6.77 at that extenstion.
Not saying it's headed there, but that could be the dip range for the next bounce.
If we draw the same line from the lower high and the lower low... 29 Mar, the 1.272 extension 14.59
Go more extreme from all time high to the new lower low and you see 6.77 at that extenstion.
Not saying it's headed there, but that could be the dip range for the next bounce.
Bonfire1996 said:
These are times I hate being right. The FED has decided that their best, and perhaps only, tool to curb inflation is to destroy jobs.
It puts a whole new perspective in my kitchen, politically. Jeez. I never could have imagined them being that diabolical.
Makes sense when you consider that the dems want more people living off the government teet.
DeSantis 2024
FJB, FJB, FJB, etc
FJB, FJB, FJB, etc
Seriously done for the day. Loaded heavy on a SPY put when it retested the 9 EMA.
Oh and breakeven on another LUV put. That thing is not respecting that little gap.
I am for real done. Not pulling a yesterday.
Edit to add…Almost a 10% week. Brick by brick.
Oh and breakeven on another LUV put. That thing is not respecting that little gap.
I am for real done. Not pulling a yesterday.
Edit to add…Almost a 10% week. Brick by brick.
Go to lunch and have a couple beers!
Ranger222 said:
Feels more "risk on" than it has in several months
Boy, they screwed shorts end of last week who tried to position when lows were in, now they screwed bulls end of this week who were late to the party. Tough market.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Nice week! I somehow ended my trading account red. I made some timely (read: lucky) moves in my longer term account though so not terrible. I had a run of a couple monster training weeks before this, so I guess I was due for a little bit of a stinker.
"Why do you rob banks"?Philip J Fry said:ProgN said:Think less disposable income for consumers. More of their money is going into their gas tank and grocery cart to the tune of $5,500 more this year than last year. They have to buy the necessities but their disposable income is drained. This will lead to fewer pleasure purchases (cars, boats, new house, vacations, etc.) The inventory of those items will increase. Their credit card interest rates are also increasing which will lead to more defaults.Philip J Fry said:
Thinking in terms of demand vs supply. How do interest rates effect demand?
I'm not sure I'm smart enough to know. It doesn't do anything for my need for food and gas.
On the supply side, it makes the cost of supply more expensive, no?
And this is better than the government spending less to ease the surge in demand? Making borrowing money easier to help the supply side costs? Let's not forget that companies will pass on the cost of capital investment to the consumer just like they do taxes.
I mean, my brain isn't really smooth. It's annoyed that those in power hammer the middle class for their own failures.
"That's where the money is". (can't remember who said that)
Middle class is where the money is why they're always in the crosshairs.
irish pete ag06 said:
Seriously done for the day. Loaded heavy on a SPY put when it retested the 9 EMA.
Oh and breakeven on another LUV put. That thing is not respecting that little gap.
I am for real done. Not pulling a yesterday.
Edit to add…Almost a 10% week. Brick by brick.
Nm
VIX new LOD. rippy power hour?
Mester: Could Back 50 Bps Sept. Closing Comments on Fed Speak
This should about do it.... About 7 unscheduled Fed interviews this week... From CNBC, Fox Business... Bloomberg.. They all got it in before the black out period... Bostic was the most dovish talking about pausing in September... Brainard and Mester were more on the hawkish side... Saying that a pause in September was not their base case...but 50 is still in the cards.. Bullard was the most bizarre with his Raise Rates now aggressively and ease later... Nonetheless RATES GOT CLOBBERED THIS WEEK...10 years went from a 2.74 close Friday to a 2.95 ish close if we close here... 3.01 held in... Pressure was from speculators and fast money who sensed an opportunity to push rates back after month end... Economic numbers were mixed, but generally do not show recession... Walmart just said that it will limit price increases for basic foods, which is good public policy...others will follow... Inflation will be curtailed, but next week's CPI estimates are still sticky... Stocks gave it back today lead by technology.. Tesla down over 9%... Apple down over 4%... And NY Fang down close to 4%... Here are the Mester headlines... Most Fed governors seem to be reading from the same script
1) Fed's Waller Says Crypto Regulation Might Help Prevent Bailouts
2) Mester: Could Back 50 Bps Sept. Hike If Inflation Doesn't Cool
5) Cleveland Fed's Mester doesn't see a 'hurricane', admits elevated recession risk
7) Mester: Question in September will be 'is another 50 basis point hike needed or not'
8) Fed's Mester Says If See Compelling Evidence That Inflation Is Down, Maybe Could Go To 25 Bps Hik
9) Fed's Mester says she does not support a pause in September
10) *MESTER: COULD BACK 50 BPS SEPT. HIKE IF INFLATION DOESN'T COOL
11) Fed's Mester Says It Will Take Compelling Evidence, Not Just One Or Two Months Of Data, On Inflatio
12) *MESTER: WANT COMPELLING EVIDENCE INFLATION IS ON DOWNWARD PATH
13) *MESTER REPEATS THAT THE RISK OF RECESSION HAVE GONE UP
14) US WEEK AHEAD: May CPI Could Show Inflation Peak Yet to Come
15) *MESTER REPEATS SHE FAVORS RAISING RATES 50 BPS IN JUNE AND JULY
16) Fed's Mester Says We Need To See More Consistent Tempering Of Underlying Demand
17) *MESTER: WANT TO SEE SOME MODERATION IN THE LABOR MARKET
18) Fed's Mester Says U.S. Jobs Report Was Strong
19) *CLEVELAND FED'S LORETTA MESTER SPEAKS IN INTERVIEW ON CNBC
20) *FED'S MESTER SAYS JOBS REPORT WAS STRONG, WAGE MODERATION GOOD
21) Lumber prices see no relief and continue to drop as Fed rate hikes put pressure on the housing mar
This should about do it.... About 7 unscheduled Fed interviews this week... From CNBC, Fox Business... Bloomberg.. They all got it in before the black out period... Bostic was the most dovish talking about pausing in September... Brainard and Mester were more on the hawkish side... Saying that a pause in September was not their base case...but 50 is still in the cards.. Bullard was the most bizarre with his Raise Rates now aggressively and ease later... Nonetheless RATES GOT CLOBBERED THIS WEEK...10 years went from a 2.74 close Friday to a 2.95 ish close if we close here... 3.01 held in... Pressure was from speculators and fast money who sensed an opportunity to push rates back after month end... Economic numbers were mixed, but generally do not show recession... Walmart just said that it will limit price increases for basic foods, which is good public policy...others will follow... Inflation will be curtailed, but next week's CPI estimates are still sticky... Stocks gave it back today lead by technology.. Tesla down over 9%... Apple down over 4%... And NY Fang down close to 4%... Here are the Mester headlines... Most Fed governors seem to be reading from the same script
1) Fed's Waller Says Crypto Regulation Might Help Prevent Bailouts
2) Mester: Could Back 50 Bps Sept. Hike If Inflation Doesn't Cool
5) Cleveland Fed's Mester doesn't see a 'hurricane', admits elevated recession risk
7) Mester: Question in September will be 'is another 50 basis point hike needed or not'
8) Fed's Mester Says If See Compelling Evidence That Inflation Is Down, Maybe Could Go To 25 Bps Hik
9) Fed's Mester says she does not support a pause in September
10) *MESTER: COULD BACK 50 BPS SEPT. HIKE IF INFLATION DOESN'T COOL
11) Fed's Mester Says It Will Take Compelling Evidence, Not Just One Or Two Months Of Data, On Inflatio
12) *MESTER: WANT COMPELLING EVIDENCE INFLATION IS ON DOWNWARD PATH
13) *MESTER REPEATS THAT THE RISK OF RECESSION HAVE GONE UP
14) US WEEK AHEAD: May CPI Could Show Inflation Peak Yet to Come
15) *MESTER REPEATS SHE FAVORS RAISING RATES 50 BPS IN JUNE AND JULY
16) Fed's Mester Says We Need To See More Consistent Tempering Of Underlying Demand
17) *MESTER: WANT TO SEE SOME MODERATION IN THE LABOR MARKET
18) Fed's Mester Says U.S. Jobs Report Was Strong
19) *CLEVELAND FED'S LORETTA MESTER SPEAKS IN INTERVIEW ON CNBC
20) *FED'S MESTER SAYS JOBS REPORT WAS STRONG, WAGE MODERATION GOOD
21) Lumber prices see no relief and continue to drop as Fed rate hikes put pressure on the housing mar
Puke or rally here?
I am leaning pukeBrian Earl Spilner said:
Puke or rally here?
I'm with you. I promise I am NOT TRADING. Just got back from a bike ride with my 2 boys and looking to close out a put potentially in my IRABrokeAssAggie said:I am leaning pukeBrian Earl Spilner said:
Puke or rally here?
H&S potentially here.
11) Mester "On inflatio"…
Ah, no thanks
Easy sophmoric Friday humor listening to Ag baseball and Buzz Williams cracking up the airwaves
Ah, no thanks
Easy sophmoric Friday humor listening to Ag baseball and Buzz Williams cracking up the airwaves
BrokeAssAggie said:
VIX new LOD. rippy power hour?
Tough market, unless day trading best stay out and wait.
This failed selfie today symbolizes my trading and investing failures the past 18 months.
This failed selfie today symbolizes my trading and investing failures the past 18 months.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
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Posts:
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Quick check in.Diggity said:bumping this to get your thoughts on WBD at this point.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Warren Buffet just took a position in Paramount. Not that I care what Warren does, but some do. He has more money and fame than I do, but I'm just mentioning this for informational purposes only. I own WBD,...so eff him.XXXVII said:PWestAg18 said:
I was hyped until the whole fiasco with removing the Taiwan flag. Not going to pay to see it out of protest.
If you're gonna make an American military movie, don't bend the knee and edit out a Pacific ally so it can be aired in the CCP.
I will be shorting Paramount.
Do we you still have faith in this play or time to dump?
WBD
I'm hanging on to WBD. I don't even look at it. Zaslav and Malone didn't get into this deal to lose. I truly think they had to hold their nose over the AT&T negotiation, but they got it done, got out from under AT&T and now they're getting out in front of this streaming thing. Zaslav knows the biz and how to run it while Malone is a savvy investor. A great team and I expect they will show excellent results over the next 2 quarters and analysts will jump on board.
ProgN
Thank you for posting images for me.
XOM
I sold CC's against an XOM position today. Sold 6/10/22 $99 Strike for $1.85. If I lose the shares at $99 next Friday, I'm perfectly fine with that. I am expecting that to happen. XOM is going to crush the rest of the year.
Vacationers / Economy
Quite a few folks roaming around in SD....including family who I am sending back to TX today...7 days at my house is long enough.. Got a niece who is thinking about a move north. I keep telling her, the only difference between SD and TX is the Alamo. Moving on,...the variety of many States license plates on cars parked at Wall Drug, Wall, SD was about normal and according to personnel there, only a slight drop off in Memorial Day traffic. (They serve approx 1,000 people a day in their restaurant) Otherwise, all other touristy places were full and so were the restaurants. I'm thinking, folks are still spending money, maybe only slightly less, but they're still spending. Camp grounds were loaded with campers, 5th wheels, and RV's. I believe I saw fewer boats being towed than normal. Snapshot from SD.
See y'all next week!
BTHOORU!
Gig'em!
option 3, basingBrokeAssAggie said:I am leaning pukeBrian Earl Spilner said:
Puke or rally here?
59 South said:
Tough market, unless day trading best stay out and wait.
This failed selfie today symbolizes my trading and investing failures the past 18 months.
Ha, also realized I forgot to post pics from Dublin from a few weeks ago per your request. Unpopular opinion but I enjoyed Jameson more than Guinness. Guinness was like visiting a theme park!
Appreciate it
Oh how I miss a Guinness in Ireland. It tastes so good.
Went to the Guinness storehouse and immediately walked from the bottom straight to the top. Couldn't careless about how its history our how it's made. Give me that beer.
Got a little impatient and jumped back into TQQQ before the close, expecting a rally.
Closed just about even, but I'm technically net free since I've locked in $5k gains and re-entered with $3k.
Closed just about even, but I'm technically net free since I've locked in $5k gains and re-entered with $3k.
Jet Black said:
Went to the Guinness storehouse and immediately walked from the bottom straight to the top. Couldn't careless about how its history our how it's made. Give me that beer.
Lol this is the way. Lots of escalators but a quick trip to the top eh?
Selling premium on high IV stocks would be a good idea right?
Or does it equal out with them being high IV because they move larger?
Or does it equal out with them being high IV because they move larger?
59 South said:Jet Black said:
Went to the Guinness storehouse and immediately walked from the bottom straight to the top. Couldn't careless about how its history our how it's made. Give me that beer.
Lol this is the way. Lots of escalators but a quick trip to the top eh?
Maybe it was as escalators. Just remember not being able to get up there fast enough. Wife doesn't like beer so I had two.
I think we are going to be range bound for a bit.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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