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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Jet Black • 5:39p, 5/12/22
I resent that comment.
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sts7049
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In reply to Jet Black • 5:41p, 5/12/22
AG
Jet Black said:
Thought we would see a rally tomorrow but dumb fck couldn't keep his mouth shut.
if your trading logic solely revolved around him speaking or not then you aren't a very smart trader
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ProgN
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In reply to Jet Black • 5:46p, 5/12/22
Jet Black said:
Thought we would see a rally tomorrow but dumb fck couldn't keep his mouth shut.
JPow actually said that earlier in the day and I suspect that was the catalyst for the methodical selling around noon for DJIA -500 and COMP -250. The fact the markets closed strong after that is encouraging.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 5:54p, 5/12/22
There were buyers today. In the morning and again late in afternoon.

The relief rally/deadcat bounce likely comes tomorrow or Monday. Inverted red hammer yesterday and spinning top today. Green hammer or doji possibly tomorrow. This leg down is almost done but the leg up will be for swinging calls. Im long with calls expiring Monday. Will look to unload these between cases or at market open if we gap up.

Bottom still a ways down.
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sts7049
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5:55p, 5/12/22
AG
this is why i'm still short

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irish pete ag06
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In reply to sts7049 • 6:02p, 5/12/22
AG
sts7049 said:
this is why i'm still short

I watch QQQ.... and it has been methodically walked down. Every pop hits a whole number slightly below the last wall of resistance, and down it heads again. Literally may just invert my chart and trade puts. Maybe I'll fare better.
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aggies4life
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6:09p, 5/12/22
AG
Anyone in $Mstr. Got in yesterday- but was busy and didn't have time to look today. Grrrrr

Crazy day:
High 205.26
Low 134.09
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ProgN
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6:14p, 5/12/22


It's only Cali but it's floating a balloon that the Fed dems will embrace based on the polls.
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Jet Black
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In reply to ProgN • 6:24p, 5/12/22
ProgN said:
Jet Black said:
Thought we would see a rally tomorrow but dumb fck couldn't keep his mouth shut.
JPow actually said that earlier in the day and I suspect that was the catalyst for the methodical selling around noon for DJIA -500 and COMP -250. The fact the markets closed strong after that is encouraging.


Good to know. Thanks.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to ProgN • 6:54p, 5/12/22
AG
ProgN said:


It's only Cali but it's floating a balloon that the Fed dems will embrace based on the polls.


Print til you win.
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Ragoo
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 6:55p, 5/12/22
AG
Printing is the problem….
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 7:02p, 5/12/22
BrokeAssAggie said:
I'm breaking my rule and holding TSLA calls overnight. It's Friday the 13th tomorrow.


TSLA $742 AH. Probably will open red but a man can hope.
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FJ43
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7:06p, 5/12/22
Imagine that.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:11p, 5/12/22
So we ripping tomorrow?!?
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Ragoo • 7:25p, 5/12/22
AG
Ragoo said:
Printing is the problem….


Oh yes, I know. I should have chose sarcasm font
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to sts7049 • 7:35p, 5/12/22
sts7049 said:
this is why i'm still short

ES is through 3945 as of 7pm
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sts7049
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7:57p, 5/12/22
AG
at the moment yes but it rejected today at 3960. the resistance is maybe not a precise number, so until it clears convincingly i wouldn't say it's clear yet
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FJ43
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 8:15p, 5/12/22
BrokeAssAggie said:
So we ripping tomorrow?!?


Chart to me doesn't say so. Bounce up maybe but for me it needs to consolidate between low 380s-402ish. Still think we test a little lower.

I'll watch EMA rejections for confirmations. Also the gap between 405-412. For now I'm good with watching and trading smaller and less often.

OPEX next week
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:19p, 5/12/22
FJ43 said:
AgEng06 said:
Didn't do much this week (except watch my long term accounts get punished).

Are you still in those LUMN $12 calls? And if so, what are your thoughts?
I am. They are right at my cut point at the close though. Today it lost a key level...along with most things. I'll see what next week brings given June expiry.


I had added a few of these calls on SR levels and sold all today for 50%. They have been green, red, green and decided to just take the 50% and go home.

I may buy back on a dip again same strike and expiry.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:32p, 5/12/22
AG
Like magic!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:59p, 5/12/22
OPEX next week is the reason I think we'll start moving up tomorrow or Monday. So many got in OTM puts and we are pretty far below max pain (430 SPY and 300 QQQ) that I think the relief bounce will happen soon. Lots of chop and reversals along the way, but I'm slightly bullish near term.
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FJ43
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9:20p, 5/12/22

Ok hope this helps someone. Especially the new traders. After all this is a trading thread. This is just what I do and part of my 'system'. Fade me I'm a redneck.

The vertical blue line is the day I warned the death cross could happen and watch closely. Happened next day and here we are.
Pink trend lines are a channel it's been trending more or less in.
Yellow trend lines are breaks that would trigger my long trade actions.
White SRs are iPad quick rough levels.
Red SRs are next few ballpark levels to downside.

Today, it fell briefly below the lower channel line into and bounced at lower SR, then reclaimed the lower channel.

We are still bear flagged. But closer to SRs I'm watching and strictly from a TA basis I would have 'predicted'. So far so good anyway. Gap above it could try for at some point but still below a downtrend trend break.

Now which way do we go?

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:23p, 5/12/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
OPEX next week is the reason I think we'll start moving up tomorrow or Monday. So many got in OTM puts and we are pretty far below max pain (430 SPY and 300 QQQ) that I think the relief bounce will happen soon. Lots of chop and reversals along the way, but I'm slightly bullish near term.
Could very well get a gap up open only to reject a level above. Tomorrow would be a great lotto Friday.

This is an awesome scalpers market and I'm jealous I can't play in the sandbox with y'all close enough to manage the intraday trades. I have to do a weekly on a Monday or Tuesday at best but most are monthly for options trades.

Shares I'm sitting back yet but also not trying to catch the bottom.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:25p, 5/12/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Like magic!
I remember the days when we (OA) called it voodoo!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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lobwedgephil
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9:29p, 5/12/22
Excellent post, what time frame are we bear flagging on?
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FJ43
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 9:44p, 5/12/22
lobwedgephil said:
Excellent post, what time frame are we bear flagging on?
From March 29 where we began the larger downtrend on a daily, you'll see several fake breaks (bear flags) in the white circles only to continue the downtrend. Notice the one with the long upper wick also which also coincides with the death cross.

The yellow is where we are now and for me I don't want to get caught buying into another. They are a little messy the way I zoomed in but zoom out and they are a little more clear.

No one knows for sure the next move/trend. This is just how I analyze the trade and charts.

If a trader has solid discipline this is a scalpers market IMO. But have to be able to manage the trade, cut quick and not be on the greedy side.

Sorry for all the lines. I'm charting away tonight.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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lobwedgephil
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9:50p, 5/12/22
Thank you sir, love your charting. Just didn't see bear flag on daily, so was curious. But certainly could become one again, like the others. I would have no problems buying there as a trade, just knowing the risks, has plenty of room up while maintaining the overall downtrend.
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FJ43
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 9:56p, 5/12/22
lobwedgephil said:
Thank you sir, love your charting. Just didn't see bear flag on daily, so was curious. But certainly could become one again, like the others. I would have no problems buying there as a trade, just knowing the risks, has plenty of room up while maintaining the overall downtrend.
No problem. Wouldn't surprise me at all for a gap up and try for 400+/- tomorrow. As a 'bet' Friday expiring 395s would have been my play.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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texagbeliever
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In reply to FJ43 • 10:01p, 5/12/22
Looking at the chart I would think the downward diagonal yellow trend line serves as resistance/bear trap. Which would suggest we could have a couple of green days before getting hit down to the eventual squeeze.
Given that it is opex week 2 green days followed by 2 red days would be premium killers for retail.

You posted right before me hinting at the above.
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Ragoo
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10:02p, 5/12/22
AG
The market is erratic. Don't hold options over night only enter when you believe a short term direction has been establish. Set a stop. Have a profit target either $ or percent. Exit there or if trend reverses. A trade could be a few minutes to half an hour. But it is likely a short term direction has you stopped or exited with profit within an hour of each trade. Be weary if you are holding a short term trade longer.

In my opinion.

Now is not the time to be buying long dated calls or selling puts.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to Ragoo • 10:08p, 5/12/22
Yeah, it is a day traders market currently. Holding anything short term overnight is a coin flip. I am certainly not buying long term calls here, but this is a great time to be selling puts, if done smartly.
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BlueTaze
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10:11p, 5/12/22
Depp finally questioned on his WWR holding

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Ragoo
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 10:14p, 5/12/22
AG
Selling puts here is like buying long - trying to catch a falling knife.
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lobwedgephil
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10:18p, 5/12/22
Maybe, take advantage of elevated premium on a stock I would have no problem owning. I'm selling puts for like another 20-30% down. Certainly could happen, will just get some stock then.
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HoustonAg2014
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 10:24p, 5/12/22
AG
lobwedgephil said:
Maybe, take advantage of elevated premium on a stock I would have no problem owning.


Agree completely… You can sell Amazon $1,900 puts for 2.6% out 1 month. Amazon May blow past that, but if you told me that I would have a chance to buy Amazon for $1,900 I would say yes please.
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