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austinAG90
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AG
MARKET REACTION... Tough one today... POSITIONS ARE CLEARLY SHORT TREASURIES AND TREASURY FUTURES... EQUITY SENTIMENT IS AWFUL AND POSITIONS FROM THE FAST MONEY, LIKE CTA'S AND HF's, ARE SHORT AS WELL...so the contrarian nature tells us to expect both treasuries and equities to rally... FED ANNOUNCEMENT DATES ARE CLEAR CATALYSTS... OUR DC INSIDERS TELL US THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FED ANNOUNCMENT SINCE 2013

Scenario 1... Fed announcement as expected... Powell presser neutral as to 75, but still slight Hawkish... Ranges should hold... 10 year 3.01, 5 year 3.05, and Long bond 3.08... Dollar will continue its strength. Equities rally marginally but do not hold their gains

Scenario 2... Powell is Very Hawkish... Talks up 75 for June and talks about getting inflation under control quickly... Front end of the curve gets hit hard and 2/10's invert... 2 years go to 2.97... 5 years 3.125... 10 years 3.08... And long bonds 3.15... But the recession fears will increase and expect a bounceback in the curve... Equities will sell off initially but will hold their previous lows, at least initially.

Scenario 3... Powell presser is viewed as somewhat dovish... The front end rallies and the curve steepens... Not likely... But shorts get covered in bonds... Equities rally but do not hold their gains...

Expect a volatile rest of the week with unemployment on Friday. ADP has come out at 274 with 383 expectation.. Unfortunately ADP has not been a good predictor of Fridays number...today markets could be a reversal of the moves we have seen recently... We still do not see rates in the long end significantly higher and think inflation has peaked and will subside... But only to 4 to 5 %... But sending the economy purposely into a recession makes little sense to us so we are going to keep with our view of NO RECESSION IN 2022...
Chef Elko
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Took a small position in AREC as a swing trade
TecRecAg
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Man this morning has been boring. Fireworks soon, I suppose.
bmks270
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Overthrown Overlord said:

texagbeliever said:

BrokeAssAggie said:

Philip J Fry said:

texagbeliever said:

Jet Black said:

texagbeliever said:

Just a warning, I will likely be around more. I was put on unpaid leave monday and will be fired saturday due to a vaccine mandate policy. Let's see AMD rocket so I care less about that!

Oh I'm also going to be looking at NVDA OTM lottos for next week depending on how it opens. It looks prime for takeoff and while its earnings isn't till May 25th, i think it may just go before then.


World is so f'ed up.
It has been a wonderful learning experience as to how smart people act so dumb. For intelligent people will go to great lengths to conjure up explanations that justify them taking the easy road rather than the right one. Unfortunately their intelligence and ability to be persuasive even in a losing position merely encourages them to continue down the wrong path. With how stubborn i am, I hope i can spot when i am guilty of the same folly.
I hope they go bankrupt.


Can you say the company so we don't support them?

NEE or nextera energy. They are down 20% from date of announcement, which is coincidental with he solar panel issue. If you live in Texas you might do business with their subsidiary Gexa or Frontier.
Are you wanting to stay in Florida? If not, I can help you find something with TXU (Vistra Corp) in Texas or Entergy in the southern states. Be happy to help


I thought Florida forbid vax mandates for employment.
BrokeAssAggie
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FTAG 2000 said:

Triple_Bagger said:


Fed minutes must be worst than expected.
BrokeAssAggie
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Brandon saying everyone should pay their fair share of tax
Triple_Bagger
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We got angry Biden today talking about raising taxes for corporations and wealthy individuals. Took one question on abortion before heading back for his nap.
Aggie1391
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Need some advice from this board. A couple weeks ago, I mentioned how I'm taking it on the chin with by selling Roku puts, and the advice was to roll them out, which I did. I got assigned my put last night, and now am using margin, which I have never done. What's the best option here?

Sell the stock and take a huge loss, but have cash in my account?
Move money into my account and hold the stock for a few years?
Sell other stocks that are currently down to get cash?
Do nothing and remain in margin?

Either way, seems like this is going to be one expensive lesson to learn from!
BrokeAssAggie
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Triple_Bagger said:

We got angry Biden today talking about raising taxes for corporations and wealthy individuals. Took one question on abortion before heading back for his nap.
no kidding. the "MAGA" agenda is the most extreme agenda he has ever seen.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

I think we can rally tomorrow.


Brewmaster
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AG
4100 next stop at this rate, ugh

or not, reversal, or is it
sts7049
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AG
Aggie1391 said:

Need some advice from this board. A couple weeks ago, I mentioned how I'm taking it on the chin with by selling Roku puts, and the advice was to roll them out, which I did. I got assigned my put last night, and now am using margin, which I have never done. What's the best option here?

Sell the stock and take a huge loss, but have cash in my account?
Move money into my account and hold the stock for a few years?
Sell other stocks that are currently down to get cash?
Do nothing and remain in margin?

Either way, seems like this is going to be one expensive lesson to learn from!
i don't know how much you're in for, but sometimes it's better to just rip the bandaid off and move on. learn the lesson next time.

don't keep holding onto it just hoping that it will gain back some value.
BrokeAssAggie
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TSLA starting to make a reversal
Brewmaster
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AG
Fruit moonshot!
BrokeAssAggie
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BREwmaster said:

Fruit moonshot!


We might go green today.
Post removed:
by user
LMCane
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ProgN said:

texagbeliever said:

Just a warning, I will likely be around more. I was put on unpaid leave monday and will be fired saturday due to a vaccine mandate policy. Let's see AMD rocket so I care less about that!

Oh I'm also going to be looking at NVDA OTM lottos for next week depending on how it opens. It looks prime for takeoff and while its earnings isn't till May 25th, i think it may just go before then.



Grab the stapler on your way out and, well you know. That's my advice.
my NVDIA down around 20% even when I was buying starting at a 20% drop from ATH

that stock has sucked the last year
LMCane
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anyone else noticing the 2 and 3 year bond is moving up faster than the 10 year bond?

2.8 to 2.9 now

definitely the closest yield curve in weeks.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
AG
LMCane said:

anyone else noticing the 2 and 3 year bond is moving up faster than the 10 year bond?

2.8 to 2.9 now

definitely the closest yield curve in weeks.
You mean a few weeks ago with they were inverted compared to the 10YR? Let's see how the 10YR reacts after the JPOW discussion and the balance sheet reduction.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Jet Black said:

FTAG 2000 said:

30K - you still in DRIP?


And LABU?
yes and yes
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

I think we can rally tomorrow.



days not over, man.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Jet Black
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Jet Black said:

FTAG 2000 said:

30K - you still in DRIP?


And LABU?
yes and yes


appreciate it
BrokeAssAggie
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TSLA is getting Rippy
texagbeliever
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Tech stocks took a beating going into the Fed announcement. Maybe chance for rebound for TSLA, AMD, ON, ASML.

AAPL is one to keep an eye on. It has broken above its downward channel (using 4/4 & 4/28) and if that holds could have more upside.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
VIX dropping hard
Brian Earl Spilner
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Was a joke, but things started pretty ugly.
BrokeAssAggie
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TSLA above $916 it's Rippy time
Brian Earl Spilner
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Brewmaster
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rally a** time

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Oil...$107.60
BrokeAssAggie
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If Macros go TSLA could run up to $935 today. I'm picking up some 5/6 $950 calls with tight stops if it dips back below $910
BrokeAssAggie
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SPY starting to look bullish
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Feels like the snake has been coiled up for a while now, but ready to strike at any time.
BrokeAssAggie
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If Bullard does not eff this up I think we are going to run.
cptthunder
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Are all the machines turned off right now? Weird almost spooky action to me for the last 45 minutes
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