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24,970,345 Views | 233752 Replies | Last: 3 min ago by Charismatic Megafauna
Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 9:55a, 4/25/22
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Pretty solid descending channel on spy hourly going back to 3/29. I just bought xsp puts

Here's my ghetto channel that we broke out of then pretty much slipped right back to today. I bought spy calls for next friday when we hit 428, and then at close. If we get a good bounce I'll trim some of them as we approach 432.5ish




423.4ish to get back in this channel, at which point the top of the channel will be about 432.3
432/433 spreads for wed for .17 seems like an easy 2-3x
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YNWA_AG
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10:01a, 4/25/22
AG
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McInnis 03
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In reply to YNWA_AG • 10:14a, 4/25/22
AG
GLORIOUS.
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Ag CPA
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 10:18a, 4/25/22
AG
McInnis 03 said:
FTAG 2000 said:
If Twitter is going to accept his original offer why wouldn't TWTR go to $54.20?

Shouldn't we be buying stocks at a 3.4 discount? Or at least options?
There's always a discount to the actual, even if the agreement is finalized at 54.20, it'll probably trade at 53.80 until finality......

The risk is if Elon pulls the plug.
Plus it still has to go through all of the regulatory reviews, there are still several things that could derail this deal.
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irish pete ag06
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10:39a, 4/25/22
AG
Holding this line...

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ProgN
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In reply to Ag CPA • 10:42a, 4/25/22
Ag CPA said:
McInnis 03 said:
FTAG 2000 said:
If Twitter is going to accept his original offer why wouldn't TWTR go to $54.20?

Shouldn't we be buying stocks at a 3.4 discount? Or at least options?
There's always a discount to the actual, even if the agreement is finalized at 54.20, it'll probably trade at 53.80 until finality......

The risk is if Elon pulls the plug.
Plus it still has to go through all of the regulatory reviews, there are still several things that could derail this deal.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 10:54a, 4/25/22
AG
irish pete ag06 said:
Holding this line...

NEVERMIND
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BrokeAssAggie
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10:54a, 4/25/22
VIX needs to stay under $32 for any sort of bounce. If not we will poop some more.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 10:59a, 4/25/22
AG
I've never really been clear, is VIX actually affecting the index, or is it just reflecting what the index is doing?

In other words, is VIX lowering an indication that the index will rally, or simply reflecting it? (Inversely)
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 11:00a, 4/25/22
Brian Earl Spilner said:
I've never really been clear, is VIX actually affecting the index, or is it just reflecting what the index is doing?

In other words, is VIX lowering an indication that the index will rally, or simply reflecting it? (Inversely)
I don't really know either. I am sure someone smarter than me will. I just use it as another check for support/resistance levels.
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TecRecAg
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 11:11a, 4/25/22
AG
I've always thought it was just reflecting. SPY goes down, VIX goes up.

Then again, I thought Fran was a good hire at the time so what do I know?
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Ag CPA • 11:12a, 4/25/22
AG
Ag CPA said:
McInnis 03 said:
FTAG 2000 said:
If Twitter is going to accept his original offer why wouldn't TWTR go to $54.20?

Shouldn't we be buying stocks at a 3.4 discount? Or at least options?
There's always a discount to the actual, even if the agreement is finalized at 54.20, it'll probably trade at 53.80 until finality......

The risk is if Elon pulls the plug.
Plus it still has to go through all of the regulatory reviews, there are still several things that could derail this deal.
I'm guessing there's a bill teed up in Congress somewhere on this right now.

Either to explicitly remove Section 230 protection for Twitter, or some sort of new social media oversight committee to make sure the Party's views are protected.

That, or just more DOJ/SEC enforcement nonsense.
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FTAG 2000
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11:14a, 4/25/22
AG
VIX is supposed to be a measure of changes in the S&P's option pricing. Seems like it's a slightly lagging indicator but not by much.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to TecRecAg • 11:16a, 4/25/22
TecRecAg said:
I've always thought it was just reflecting. SPY goes down, VIX goes up.

Then again, I thought Fran was a good hire at the time so what do I know?

It is based on SPX option prices expiring the next 30 days. I believe it's either OTM or ITM options only and TRIN or some other indicator represents the other, but I'm not sure on that.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 11:17a, 4/25/22
FTAG 2000 said:
VIX is supposed to be a measure of changes in the S&P's option pricing. Seems like it's a slightly lagging indicator but not by much.

Actually it could be a forward looking indicator since big money will move options first before they move shares.
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Jet Black
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11:20a, 4/25/22
Seems like one day this week we will be due for a monster green day.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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11:23a, 4/25/22
AG
Why not today? I still got a chip and a chair.

Fed special meeting is in 7 minutes? Or did it start 53 minutes ago?
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Cromagnum
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11:38a, 4/25/22
AG
The mouse getting hammered.

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LMCane
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In reply to Cromagnum • 11:41a, 4/25/22
Cromagnum said:
The mouse getting hammered.



Disney should pick a public feud with elected state legislators over issues that have nothing to do with Disney.

that should send their share price back to ATH.
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kyle field 94
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11:44a, 4/25/22
AG
Why are the MLP down so much today?

Interest rate risk?
Over bought?
Fear or crude and nat gas price fall?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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11:48a, 4/25/22
AG
Probably mass exodus after people finally got done figuring out what to do with their stack of k-1s on their taxes
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Ag CPA
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In reply to kyle field 94 • 11:50a, 4/25/22
AG
WTI is down 6%, probably the biggest factor today.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:51a, 4/25/22
AG
I bought 10 XSP in the 50K account 425C @ 1.25

Stop 1
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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TecRecAg
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 11:53a, 4/25/22
AG
Back north of this channel looking intraday (5m). With VIX 30+ I'm still not convinced.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:54a, 4/25/22
AG
moved too fast down. i couldn't even set a stop. going with standard 50% for now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to TecRecAg • 11:59a, 4/25/22
AG
Can rsi go negative?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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12:03p, 4/25/22
AG
Vale sure looks good here
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TecRecAg
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 12:04p, 4/25/22
AG
If it hasn't from Thursday morning until now, I don't think it ever will. Ha.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:17p, 4/25/22
AG
Sold all 1.4
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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CheladaAg
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12:30p, 4/25/22
AG
What's going on in China? Why such a severe lockdown as compared to the past two years?
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to CheladaAg • 12:34p, 4/25/22
AG
boyz05 said:
What's going on in China? Why such a severe lockdown as compared to the past two years?


US midterms coming up.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:48p, 4/25/22
AG
I'm going to do something here that is oversharing, but I feel is an important lesson.

I made a trading mistake today. I bought 100 contracts of SPY instead of 10. It has completely ruined what was otherwise a really solid day. As soon as I realized what I did, I got out. This is the important thing for you all to remember. One mistake is killing my 65% win rate.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 12:55p, 4/25/22
Hold your cards. I think we have a B-I-N-G-O!
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AgDad77
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 12:55p, 4/25/22
AG
30K
Thanks for sharing!!

I have done the same thing - not to that degree but have bought 10 instead of my planned 1-2 or 3 - lol

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deadbq03
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 12:55p, 4/25/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
FTAG 2000 said:
VIX is supposed to be a measure of changes in the S&P's option pricing. Seems like it's a slightly lagging indicator but not by much.

Actually it could be a forward looking indicator since big money will move options first before they move shares.
The problem with using VIX as an indicator for SPX is that VIX isn't inherently inverse directionally with SPX… it just so happens that downswings are almost always more violent than upswings, so increasing VIX overwhelmingly means decreasing SPX… but it's possible for SPX and VIX to move together. Both can move upwards together if SPX rips upward after a period of relatively flat growth/decline, or both can move downwards together if the market goes slightly negative after a big gap up. These are rare events but they're not ridiculous outliers (consider the past hour, where VIX is falling because SPX is slowly, moderately fading)
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