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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Every company I've worked at does the end of year true up, but even when i front loaded i still tried to leave out enough so i can slow roll the rest of the year with 6% contributions and not have to wait for my employer match, in case i quit or get fired!
I'm jealous, if you have a true up and not have to keep a watchful eye on contributions through the year, that's awesome. I never had that.

BTW, if you've never been fired you never tried hard enough.
austinAG90
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AG
Holiday on Monday as well…….
M4 Benelli
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I understand your concerns with how fickle teeny boppers are here state side. Thankfully CROX is getting foot holds in Australia and Asia. Think the craze in Aus isnt even a year old, and Asia has yet to begin. A lot of room for growth if the Biebers of the world peddle these paw clogs, and the stars align.
Jet Black
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FYI I don't think we are ever going back to the precovid normal. At least, not all the way back.
FishrCoAg
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AG
Jet Black said:

FYI I don't think we are ever going back to the precovid normal. At least, not all the way back.


Depends on location. My little town is pretty much like it was before. No impact on stocks though!
Irish 2.0
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FishrCoAg said:

Jet Black said:

FYI I don't think we are ever going back to the precovid normal. At least, not all the way back.


Depends on location. My little town is pretty much like it was before. No impact on stocks though!


Think he went market movements
ProgN
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Touchless said:

ROKU does also have a gap down to $96.8 from 4/13/20. Not sure if it will go low enough to fill it, but if it reaches $100, it may go ahead and flush to it.
If the markets tank heading into a long weekend, then ROKU could spike down and fill that gap. The shorts are going to pound the hell out of it.
59 South
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AG
Live look in at me doing technical analysis on ROKU:

If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
ProgN
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Well we should be damn close to the bottom.
59 South
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AG
ProgN said:

Well we should be damn close to the bottom.
Honestly, their earnings report wasn't THAT bad. Looks like the lower Q1 guidance and rev miss was due to 'transitory' supply chain issues was the catalyst, or it was going down no matter what due to options positioning & marketing conditions. The full year guidance appears to not be affected. Still haven't done a full deep dive yet though.
ProgN
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ROKU has been decimated and is too much of a value to pass up at $100. I'll be buying it across my family's accounts today.
59 South
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AG
ProgN said:

ROKU has been decimated and is too much of a value to pass up at $100. I'll be buying it across my family's accounts today.
I had sold some shares around $330. Guess I need to buy them back today! Last time you said something like this it was $TTD and it doubled in like 6 weeks.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:


BTW, if you've never been fired you never tried hard enough.

I've only been laid off once, oct '20 after 15 years in o&g. I am chronically underpaid and nobody wants my job. #jobsecurity
Whitehouse Road
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AG
DKNGs turn behind the woodshed
ProgN
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59 South said:

ProgN said:

ROKU has been decimated and is too much of a value to pass up at $100. I'll be buying it across my family's accounts today.
I had sold some shares around $330. Guess I need to buy them back today! Last time you said something like this it was $TTD and it doubled in like 6 weeks.


And yes, ROKU at $100 gives me the same vibes that TTD did last May.
Saltyag15
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AG
Anybody check on Brian Earl Spillner? Did he make it through the night?
BrokeAssAggie
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FTAG 2000
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AG
PLTR down after Cathie sold 17% of the shares she had yesterday.

Bob Knights Paper Hands
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No huge green futures. I think this will be OPEX battling downside and volatility today. Whatever happens today, I remain pretty risk off for next week.
ProgN
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AG 2000' said:

PLTR down after Cathie sold 17% of the shares she had yesterday.


She's having to liquidate positions to cover requests for investors pulling out of her funds. I bet she wasn't pleased having to sell PLTR at all.

ETA: I bet she's most of the downside pressure on ROKU this morning too.
wanderer
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AG 2000' said:

PLTR down after Cathie sold 17% of the shares she had yesterday.
I'd say it has more to do with the earnings PM yesterday.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Kinda funny. She was the greatest investor in history in 2020-21. Turns out….In a raging bull market, you can throw a dart and hit a 400% gainer. She's coming back to Earth now.

austinAG90
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AG
Equities Rally as Blinken Accepts Lavrov Meeting On Ukraine...Treasuries Mixed

Overnight we saw stabilization and a rally in US equities futures as Foreign Minister Lavrov proposed a meeting next week with Secretary of State Blinken, who quickly accepted...it was announced around 10.30 PM last night where one can see the S+P shoot up 40 quick points...over the last few hours it has given back about 15 of those points, but all three averages are higher, but no where near what they lost yesterday... The invasion talk remains but we remain skeptical... We think that yesterday's shootings was more from rebels who are trying to instigate a war for their own reasons... Putin is looking for a political win,, and not a massive amount of casualties... Treasuries meanwhile sold off to 1.99 10 years and are at 1.965 now...

TODAY...we sent this around yesterday but it is worth repeating... $545 billion of derivatives across single stocks scheduled to expire, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates. About $985 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts and $165 billion in options tied to the world's largest exchange-traded fund, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY), will run out, according to the firm's strategist Rocky Fishman. So we could get additional volatility as the risk gets hedged or options expire.

Fed... Mester could not be clearer when it comes to 50 in March, "if by mid year , I assess that inflation is not going to moderate as expected, then I would support removing accommodation at a faster pace over the second half of the year"... TRANSLATED MEANS NO 50 HIKE IN MARCH... This is the 5th Fed governor to disagree with Bullard.. Meanwhile we have 4 Fed Governors speaking today, three of which is on point... We tend to ignore Williams and Evans, as they are not trend setters... And will focus on Waller, who last said no 50 and only three hikes in 2022...granted that was before the recent spurt in inflation... He is the protege of Bullard, who he worked under for years at the St. Louis Fed...if he continues his moderate pace talk of rate rises, then the Bullard 100 by July is dead in the water... However, Waller is a promoter of balance sheet reduction... Mester talked of selling off mortgages yesterday... Here the run off has been reduced by over half from close to 100 billion a month to under 50... This because the rising rates and the lack of refi's... Nonetheless we do not see outright sales of mortgages by the Fed in the near future...

Rates...WIRP continues to move lower from 6.6 rate hikes in 2022 at the beginning of the week to 6.09 currently... Hence the yield curve has steepened... And 5 years and 2 years are 10-15 off their high yields... We still think 4 for now, and will say as much on our TV hit at 11.00 am... We will send the link when we get back to the office.

Corporate spreads are a concern of ours... Rather than continue to talk about CDX HY and IG, we attached a chart of USD IG All Sectors OAS Index... You do not have to be a technician to see how spreads have widened DRAMATICALLY SINCE EARLY NOVEMBER... OAS spreads have gone from 82 to 138 this morning, and even though Santelli tells me not to use percentages when it comes to bonds, this is wider by 68%..

OK... Remember this is a 3 day weekend... We have a busy day markets wise today because of all the option expirations, the Fed speak, and the fear of what can happen over the long weekend...
AgOutsideAustin
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AG
Is the Nasdaq about ten percent off its all time high ?
McInnis 03
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AG
Seems some selling started at 7am. Perhaps some machines got turned on and the positions are dropping like it's hot? AM OPEX on SPX may be playing a role.....It's interesting that SPX/ES is right where it was before the pump up at 7:30p last night.
Irish 2.0
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59 South
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Kinda funny. She was the greatest investor in history in 2020-21. Turns out….In a raging bull market, you can throw a dart and hit a 400% gainer. She's coming back to Earth now.


Yea maybe she just got lucky. She just keeps doubling down on her 'theses'. I got a bit skeptical of her and ARK after her ties to Bill Hwang came out last year, especially the fact that he seeded her ETFs launch.

I've also read some cringe worthy articles about her cohosting some religion based investing conferences together with him.

Her stocks like ROKU, PLTR and SQ take the big hits when she needs liquidity since she overplows money into lots of other illiquid stocks.

Not saying it is gonna happen or is even likely, but she is definitely on blow up watch.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Futures nosedive.
59 South
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AG
Irish 2.0 said:


The price target circus stuff is about the dumbest thing in the markets that somehow we keep around.
McInnis 03
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AG
It may be time to just go 100% in on CROX. Irish could tell you more.
bmoochie
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AG
Happy WWR assignment day for those who followed OA awhile back about selling $5 Feb puts!! Adding to the TexAgs institutional ownership.
Irish 2.0
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McInnis 03 said:

It may be time to just go 100% in on CROX. Irish could tell you more.
There may or may not be a whale that I go back and forth with on Twitter that is loading up in it...
Engine10
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AG
From what I've learned (which is tiny by comparison to the pros) is that I'll never take a PT seriously. Too many assumptions about the future, marketing pressure, etc.
McInnis 03
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AG
Since I follow both of you I may or may not be privy to all the communication.
ProgN
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https://twitter.com/ImDerBatman/status/1494492601927581699?s=20&t=WEQVxxfILTx6e0xCrRwZTg

Just something funny before the market, wait till the end.
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