Equities Rally as Blinken Accepts Lavrov Meeting On Ukraine...Treasuries Mixed
Overnight we saw stabilization and a rally in US equities futures as Foreign Minister Lavrov proposed a meeting next week with Secretary of State Blinken, who quickly accepted...it was announced around 10.30 PM last night where one can see the S+P shoot up 40 quick points...over the last few hours it has given back about 15 of those points, but all three averages are higher, but no where near what they lost yesterday... The invasion talk remains but we remain skeptical... We think that yesterday's shootings was more from rebels who are trying to instigate a war for their own reasons... Putin is looking for a political win,, and not a massive amount of casualties... Treasuries meanwhile sold off to 1.99 10 years and are at 1.965 now...
TODAY...we sent this around yesterday but it is worth repeating... $545 billion of derivatives across single stocks scheduled to expire, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates. About $985 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts and $165 billion in options tied to the world's largest exchange-traded fund, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY), will run out, according to the firm's strategist Rocky Fishman. So we could get additional volatility as the risk gets hedged or options expire.
Fed... Mester could not be clearer when it comes to 50 in March, "if by mid year , I assess that inflation is not going to moderate as expected, then I would support removing accommodation at a faster pace over the second half of the year"... TRANSLATED MEANS NO 50 HIKE IN MARCH... This is the 5th Fed governor to disagree with Bullard.. Meanwhile we have 4 Fed Governors speaking today, three of which is on point... We tend to ignore Williams and Evans, as they are not trend setters... And will focus on Waller, who last said no 50 and only three hikes in 2022...granted that was before the recent spurt in inflation... He is the protege of Bullard, who he worked under for years at the St. Louis Fed...if he continues his moderate pace talk of rate rises, then the Bullard 100 by July is dead in the water... However, Waller is a promoter of balance sheet reduction... Mester talked of selling off mortgages yesterday... Here the run off has been reduced by over half from close to 100 billion a month to under 50... This because the rising rates and the lack of refi's... Nonetheless we do not see outright sales of mortgages by the Fed in the near future...
Rates...WIRP continues to move lower from 6.6 rate hikes in 2022 at the beginning of the week to 6.09 currently... Hence the yield curve has steepened... And 5 years and 2 years are 10-15 off their high yields... We still think 4 for now, and will say as much on our TV hit at 11.00 am... We will send the link when we get back to the office.
Corporate spreads are a concern of ours... Rather than continue to talk about CDX HY and IG, we attached a chart of USD IG All Sectors OAS Index... You do not have to be a technician to see how spreads have widened DRAMATICALLY SINCE EARLY NOVEMBER... OAS spreads have gone from 82 to 138 this morning, and even though Santelli tells me not to use percentages when it comes to bonds, this is wider by 68%..
OK... Remember this is a 3 day weekend... We have a busy day markets wise today because of all the option expirations, the Fed speak, and the fear of what can happen over the long weekend...