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BrokeAssAggie
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5:52a, 1/28/22
Looking red

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ProgN
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 5:56a, 1/28/22
BrokeAssAggie said:
Looking red



Yeah, panic is setting in. Some guy on cnbc yesterday was saying 5 rate hikes this year. I don't see 5.
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BrokeAssAggie
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6:02a, 1/28/22
Fruit still green.
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McInnis 03
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6:04a, 1/28/22
AG
London sold hard
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ProgN
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 6:11a, 1/28/22
McInnis 03 said:
London sold hard



Not too many people want to have too much risk on over the weekend with Ukraine tensions escalating.

We probably have a weak close too.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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6:43a, 1/28/22
AG
Or a red day
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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BrokeAssAggie
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6:50a, 1/28/22
AAPL staying green..for now
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$30,000 Millionaire
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6:55a, 1/28/22
AG
4270 is the key level. Has to hold.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Carlo4
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In reply to ProgN • 6:55a, 1/28/22
AG
ProgN said:
McInnis 03 said:
London sold hard



Not too many people want to have too much risk on over the weekend with Ukraine tensions escalating.

We probably have a weak close too.


It's the US saying it is and Ukraine saying to remain calm. Even CNN is reporting it. Crazy times!

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/01/28/politics/president-joe-biden-zelensky-putin-russia-ukraine/index.html
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:04a, 1/28/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
4270 is the key level. Has to hold.


Just bounced right off it
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austinAG90
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7:22a, 1/28/22
AG
Another Risk Off Start...S+P Drops 72 Points Since 3 AM...Treasuries Lower

Where is the month end allocation?.. Monday?... Nothing seems to keep the equity markets from going lower... Will the Fed really be able to raise rates 5 times this year?...WIRP on your BB shows 4.94 hikes by end of the year... Equity markets continue to slump... Russell 2000 is in clear bear territory, getting hit hard again today...S+P is in corrective territory, but Nasdaq is approaching bear territory... Surprisingly Treasuries can not catch a bid and are lower across the curve, down about 3.5 basis from 2 years to 30 years... 2 years have hit new highs of 1.226 ,well on the way to our 1.31 near term objective... 5 years are about to take out the 1.699 highs of yesterday... Support there is 1.77.. But even 10 years are having difficulty today, hitting 1.85 earlier and a basis better as we write this... 10 year range seems to be in a 1.70-1.90 juncture until it is not... We still think 2% is in the cards....

Yesterday long treasuries rallied as the thought process is the new Powell Uber Hawkish Pivot ( which we question)..... where markets are starting to build in a recession... Hard to believe when yesterday's GDP was 6.9%... And the economy continues to hum along... Nonetheless ,without the Fed manipulating the bond market, the market is free to push in whatever direction and curve it wants... The short end is hostage to the Fed and the number of hikes the street is predicting... We still think 3-4 with Balance sheet reduction, but we won't win that argument until the second quarter....

Credit... We said the last few months that as long as the corporate bond market was solid the equity market would not hit bear territory... That worked for some time, but now we are seeing the CORPORATE BOND SPREADS WIDEN DAILY... CDX IG is out to 64, from where is spent the last few months around 49... But CDX HY is starting to look ugly... It had been 275-300... Took out its high of earlier of the week of 342... And is 357 this morning... If you do a 2 year chart it looks like next support is 410... So corporate markets are starting to look ugly... And we are seeing withdrawals from both munis and corporates... Margin calls hit corporate bond markets and we have seen 100+ item bid lists. Junk bonds posted the biggest one day loss in 15 months

We see this as another ugly day, at least to start... We could see a bounce and we expect some mitigation from reallocation from bonds to stocks... Our colleagues have the reallocation as a 1.8 standard deviation move, which is significant... But clearly the equity markets are in mini panic mode and no longer seem to be bottom fishing,,, more of a capital preservation mode...
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Irish 2.0
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7:31a, 1/28/22
Finally back from Hotlanta!!! What'd y'all do?!
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McInnis 03
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7:31a, 1/28/22
AG
PCE bounce. Probably a first move fade coming.
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 7:33a, 1/28/22
McInnis 03 said:
PCE bounce. Probably a first move fade coming.
Yep

Let's see if a a worst report was priced in
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Dan Scott
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7:33a, 1/28/22
AG
Woke up DOW down 400. Took a shower and now we down 100
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Irish 2.0
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7:36a, 1/28/22


"A little bit"
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BrokeAssAggie
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7:42a, 1/28/22
Already big moves and we still have 15 minutes to open
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 7:44a, 1/28/22
BrokeAssAggie said:
Already big moves and we still have 15 minutes to open
Think you mean 45mins...
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Triple_Bagger
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7:45a, 1/28/22
30pt move on ES in 2-minutes. This volatility is wild (awesome)
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 7:48a, 1/28/22
Irish 2.0 said:
BrokeAssAggie said:
Already big moves and we still have 15 minutes to open
Think you mean 45mins...


Yes..
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Brewmaster
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:48a, 1/28/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
4270 is the key level. Has to hold.


Going to plunge past it today I bet, after they sell the morning rip
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McInnis 03
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7:51a, 1/28/22
AG
This man's levels are just ridiculously good. The bounce brought us to 4320 and then pulled back a pinch.


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7:52a, 1/28/22
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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In reply to [removed post] • 7:54a, 1/28/22
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AG
jj9000 said:
Look at the 5 and 15 min candles at 7:30 on the Russell. Grab your seatbelts.

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LMCane
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In reply to planoaggie123 • 8:02a, 1/28/22
planoaggie123 said:
Will be interesting....Q1 and Q2 could drop for a lot of companies when refunds are lower due to child credit prepayments in 2021 and people going "oh crap, I usually get $4K but now owe $500" and having to stop that "free spending"....might see people drop subscriptions, etc.


great point.

also, no more free bennies for "rent free holiday" and no more direct payments for extended unemployment/taxpayer debt covid payments

my guess is all the millenials were shoving that "free" money into crypto and stocks while not paying back their college loans (still in deferral!) and not paying rent.
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mazag08
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In reply to mazag08 • 8:07a, 1/28/22
AG
mazag08 said:
JP_Losman said:
Classic AAPL.

Boom there she goes
Broke the trendline
Wow. It looked like it had.. then reversed hard.
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LMCane
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In reply to ProgN • 8:09a, 1/28/22
ProgN said:
McInnis 03 said:
London sold hard



Not too many people want to have too much risk on over the weekend with Ukraine tensions escalating.

We probably have a weak close too.

supposedly Biden was yelling at Zelensky that the Russians were going to sack Kiev

and the Ukrainians were yelling back that they don't see a Russian invasion!

total cr@pshow as usual with the "best and brightest" in DC right now.

Putin is laughing his @ss off at Biden!
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LMCane
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8:14a, 1/28/22
what's the effect of this? just breaking news


Key Fed inflation gauge rises 4.9% from a year ago, fastest gain since 1983

PUBLISHED FRI, JAN 28 20228:32 AM ESTUPDATED 3 MIN AGO

Jeff Cox@JEFF.COX.7528@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM


A gauge the Federal Reserve prefers to measure inflation rose 4.9% from a year ago, the biggest gain going back to September 1983, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Dan Scott • 8:17a, 1/28/22
AG
Dan Scott said:
Woke up DOW down 400. Took a shower and now we down 100


Go take another one, lol
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McInnis 03
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8:20a, 1/28/22
AG
4320 resistance is holding here.......I won't believe it's broken until we breach it, touch it on a pullback and go again.
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Talon2DSO
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8:24a, 1/28/22
AG
Fruit is still green
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to LMCane • 8:29a, 1/28/22
LMCane said:
planoaggie123 said:
Will be interesting....Q1 and Q2 could drop for a lot of companies when refunds are lower due to child credit prepayments in 2021 and people going "oh crap, I usually get $4K but now owe $500" and having to stop that "free spending"....might see people drop subscriptions, etc.


great point.

also, no more free bennies for "rent free holiday" and no more direct payments for extended unemployment/taxpayer debt covid payments

my guess is all the millenials were shoving that "free" money into crypto and stocks while not paying back their college loans (still in deferral!) and not paying rent.
There's still free money programs happening, but it's more State specific. Hard to hear about if you're not living there. A good example, I can be in the state of MN faster than a round trip from College Station to Snook and I had not heard about this program in MN until a contact in MN sent it to me. I heard MI has a program too, but haven't verified.

https://www.kare11.com/article/money/walz-details-plan-to-expand-economic-opportunities-as-part-of-new-budget-package/89-e1fe51c6-9807-40cd-a700-5e710feb9d9d
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:36a, 1/28/22
AG
folks, something I've been thinking about doing to help some of you is funding a $50K account and making trades against it that are maybe a bit easier to be in with less risk. In the spirit of that, I've decided to do it. You are free to participate if you want or just follow along, but I will post all the results here.

First trade:

sell Feb 4 COIN 167.5 put for $9.90

Rationale: I'm willing to own COIN at these levels. BTC is near support and they have earnings on 2/8, so it would not be unreasonable to get a rally. In the event I am assigned, premium tends to be good and I should be able to get out break even eventually through selling premium. Everyone hates it right now too.





You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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SF2004
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:39a, 1/28/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
folks, something I've been thinking about doing to help some of you is funding a $50K account and making trades against it that are maybe a bit easier to be in with less risk. In the spirit of that, I've decided to do it. You are free to participate if you want or just follow along, but I will post all the results here.

First trade:

sell Feb 4 COIN 167.5 put for $9.90

Rationale: I'm willing to own COIN at these levels. BTC is near support and they have earnings on 2/8, so it would not be unreasonable to get a rally. In the event I am assigned, premium tends to be good and I should be able to get out break even eventually through selling premium. Everyone hates it right now too.





Did well with this last year... but right now my account is in trouble with the steep decline right now.

Every time I learn something new something else just takes me to the cleaners.
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