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24,648,253 Views | 233304 Replies | Last: 1 min ago by idAg09
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
I guess i suck at this but why are we feeling good about this as a reversal rather than another bounce and bleed? Besides the big buy at 9:34 there hasn't been great volume, rejected at 446.5ish again, haven't reclaimed 144d ema, and we reversed at 440.66, which was no man's land, right?
(Spy)
Everybody loves a dirt road
BlueTaze
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oldarmy1 said:

I visited with one of the production egineers. He didn't know I was an investor and was almost giddy over the companies technology. Been a hard bear market for small caps and I want to see an explosion move from it Q1.


Great to hear. Cash on balance sheet greater than market cap. So many tail winds- only natural US production with China tensions escalating, EV market growth, some decent Bama tax breaks, proven feasibility pilot on tech, etc.

Maybe Feb 18 OPEX is a milestone to get past a big chunk of written options.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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jj9000 said:

Somebody talk me out of buying NFLX.
If you buy T or buy DISCA, you'll get shares in the newly formed company of Warner Bros/Discovery (NewCo). Once WB/D is formed it will be the best streamer, better content, growing subscriber base (Warner Media) world wide reach, lower costs to produce, etc. It's the content that costs these streamers, if you don't have a studio (NFLX) your outside costs to produce content are going up. Warner and DIS have the studio's, DIS is paying premium for content and not receiving follow-ship. Discovery is way undervalued and the Warner Bros piece once connected after the deal gets approved (DOJ approval) the market will realize how grossly under-valued the WB/D (NewCo) is compared to DIS and NFLX. I mentioned this to FJ43 is a post a few pages back and bolded the next sentence. If you don't buy T or DISCA shares or shares in the NewCo, buy Calls in the NewCo when they are available and hold. You'll be glad you did.

Transparency, I own T and DISCA both.
McInnis 03
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AG
ES double rejection on the OVNH.


DIE VIX DIE
Spoony Love
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AG
I'm not in the reversal camp today. I think we are seeing come OPEX digestion around $446 but ultimately we see a rug pull around noon time when premium has been crushed.
MaroonDynasty
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IMMR looking strong today so far.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I just made a couple % on a WFC trade. Just barely made up for the SHOP and SPY flies yesterday. I got some 90:1 SAVA lotto spreads for Feb 18 to fill. Otherwise I've been sitting out today. I'm not even checking account values for anything that has long-term holds. I don't wanna see that.
Irish 2.0
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Why are you using 144d for your moving average?

Also, Not feeling like a full market reversal at all yet. Won't feel any shred of confidence until we reclaim at least the 5DMA. But things bounced basically perfectly from technical levels and was a good entry point to nibble with stops placed
Brewmaster
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AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:

I guess i suck at this but why are we feeling good about this as a reversal rather than another bounce and bleed? Besides the big buy at 9:34 there hasn't been great volume, rejected at 446.5ish again, haven't reclaimed 144d ema, and we reversed at 440.66, which was no man's land, right?
(Spy)
me personally, I like the first hour or so flush down. As Ripster tweeted not long ago, that is usually a tell for the rest of the day. If we rally the rest of today, and with OPEX over, I'd be bullish lean for next week.

also inverse H&S intraday.

We should all remember tech seasonality though. This could be a 1 week rip before another death spiral early February.
McInnis 03
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AG
NQ
FTAG 2000
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AG
Philip J Fry said:

So get out with 2 consecutive losing days?
Yep. I spent time over Christmas looking at all my trades last year.

Amongst other things realized I was holding too long, having overnight events (futures, world) push things down before I could react.

I spend the last 15 minutes before market close looking at my positions. If anything's going into close lower than yesterday's close, I cut it.
agdaddy04
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AG
What do you guys think on BTI now? it's been so strong through these red weeks, too high to enter? I think someone had mentioned they had a pt of $60 on it?
Charismatic Megafauna
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Irish 2.0 said:

Why are you using 144d for your moving average?

It's the next fib after 89, but i never see it used and i don't know why
Everybody loves a dirt road
BrokeAssAggie
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SPY getting tight. We are going to have a break out here soon.
Diggity
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AG
what am I missing here. Sounds like the new streamer will be HBOMax, plus whatever mediocre Discovery Channel products get added. I may be out of the loop here, but is there really a lot of sought after content coming from Discovery?
Spoony Love
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AG
If we stay between SPY $446-447 through noon, those $443P today expiry will look very attractive.
Philip J Fry
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AG
I've been doing the same reflecting over the break. I decided that I wasn't selling into uptrends enough.

It's not easy balancing work life with trading. I remember the big red candle day starting out green and by the end of he day it was majorly red like the rest of the market. I expected it to bounce back, but didn't. Your consecutive loss rule would have caught that. Now I'm trying to decide if I just ride it out. The MACD, says to sell, but it's a lagging indicator and I think we've found out support at 18 again,
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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The previous hour (not this current) was the highest SPY volume since when? I can only see back to Nov.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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agdaddy04 said:

What do you guys think on BTI now? it's been so strong through these red weeks, too high to enter? I think someone had mentioned they had a pt of $60 on it?
That's me on the $60....it should be there now. If you're uncertain about 2022, believe rising interest rates, inflation (ha! it's here), not crazy about the employment picture, etc. this is a defensive stock and it's a stock that does well when economic conditions are seemingly poor. Company has world wide - reach, customer base and is one thing that survives in questionable times...people smoke more with more stress. It's been stellar. Been a holding of mine for a long time. Dividend is like 74 cents per quarter. MO is closer to home, but BTI has the forward technology in it's portfolio and the rest do not.
Agsquatch
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AG
Officially doubled my account as of today. Up 17% on calls. It feels nice to not be a ****** some times.
Ccutamu
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So is OA saying he thinks we just put in the low for a while?

Irish 2.0
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Need to clear 362 with some gusto on the QQQ
Spoony Love
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AG
Yesterday had a higher closing hour but that could have just been the selling pressure.

I will say it is closing in on daily volume that was high in December and October
Irish 2.0
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Diggity said:

what am I missing here. Sounds like the new streamer will be HBOMax, plus whatever mediocre Discovery Channel products get added. I may be out of the loop here, but is there really a lot of sought after content coming from Discovery?
HBO/HBOMax has a real following worldwide and is wanted. Discovery is wanted worldwide and doesnt have the distribution now - that it will get from Warner. South America and Europe are hot for both. NFLX never had much competition....until now. Warner is going after subscribers and NFLX is suffering from competition that is beginning to surface and acknowledged in their forward guidance. Plus, NFLX raised their monthly rates....cause CONTENT costs...NFLX has a competitive problem they have not seen before and it's coming and they see it. The WB/D rates will be half of what NFLX charges. NFLX content will decline because it's not sustainable with current costs. I'd short NFLX before I'd go long. That's just me and the industry DD I've done.
gougler08
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AG
Rolled some naked puts out to Feb on tech stocks…didn't really want the shares yet and could take credits with the volatility

Come on bulls!
Philip J Fry
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AG
The streaming services I never watch anymore are Hulu and Apple. Between HBOMAX, Netflix, Disney, and youtubetv I'm pretty well covered.
Philip J Fry
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Senor Butthead said:

Officially doubled my account as of today. Up 17% on calls. It feels nice to not be a ****** some times.


Username checks out.
Agvet12
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AG
Philip J Fry said:

Senor Butthead said:

Officially doubled my account as of today. Up 17% on calls. It feels nice to not be a ****** some times.


Username checks out.


**** I picked the wrong week to go dark on vacation
Seven Costanza
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AG
oldarmy1 said:

BlueTaze said:

WWR CEO and insiders granted vested shares on Tuesday for their performance. From recent news everything looks to be on track operationally, other than the sp bleeding out with rest of smal cap growth sector.

https://twitter.com/InsiderAlerts4U/status/1484540137707118604?t=wGqYnlIDn1vNLRQ_JeZIGA&s=19
I visited with one of the production egineers. He didn't know I was an investor and was almost giddy over the companies technology. Been a hard bear market for small caps and I want to see an explosion move from it Q1.


Do you know how they plan to pay for their plant? From my ignorant business perspective, it seems like a zero revenue company with insufficient cash on hand would need to either further dilute shares or need a massive government subsidy.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Philip J Fry said:

The streaming services I never watch anymore are Hulu and Apple. Between HBOMAX, Netflix, Disney, and youtubetv I'm pretty well covered.
I believe AAPL or DIS will buy WB/D before it gets off the ground. Both AAPL and DIS need "something" to boost their efforts. WB/D gives AAPL everything they need and they need a lot. DIS would obtain better content and worldwide reach, the WB/D studios don't help DIS. NFLX I don't see as a player to buy WB/D because their cash is tied up in actor and studio overpriced contracts....they don't have the cash. They have a major strategic problem ahead. The other 2 players (AAPL & DIS) could write a check for WB/D in the beginning and never blink.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
back into no trade zone.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Diggity
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AG
Agree with you on Netflix. You just have to look at the "Top 10" list anymore to see they're scraping the bottom of the barrel on content.

My only doubt is how "buzzy" the DISC content is. HBOMax has great content, but it's not organized well.
Saltyag15
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AG
Hope no one went too deep on that bounce...we ain't out of the woods yet!
Spoony Love
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Spoony Love said:

If we stay between SPY $446-447 through noon, those $443P today expiry will look very attractive.
May have missed this opportunity at this posting. Would have been in at .52, they are sitting at almost 1.50
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