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24,580,567 Views | 233189 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
mazag08
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AG
PROG seems to have bottomed in it's "a" wave of the retracement from the high. Next up would be a correctve upward "b" wave that takes a day or two or three in a "lightning bolt" shaped move to $5.10 - $5.30 range. Then it should be a 5-wave move down that I'm expecting to hit $3.50. It could go as low as $2.75 but I don't see that happening unless we get some more downside before the "b" wave.

A week? Two weeks? Then a week or so of loading back up and priming for a really big pop in mid December through the end of the year? Do we see $10 PROG by the end of the year?
ProgN
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agdaddy04 said:

Are you guys in NIO long term? Is it one I might want to scale back on?

What range of CC's are you looking at on TTD?
I think we'll have a Santa Clause rally and if TTD is $115+, I'd look at the Jan $120-125 CCs. If you're called out, I don't think you will, you'll double your money or more in less than 8 months from our entry price. If you are called out, your tax liability will be in the next year. With uncertainty in DC regarding taxes next year, I suspect we may see selling pressure before Jan 1. If we do, then you'll more than likely pocket that premium.
mazag08
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Can you do some EW for us on RGS? If u posted earlier, sorry I never saw….
Very long corrective wave down dating back to the Christmas high of 2004. The first big move you see that bottoms at $8.21 in Nov of 2008 is a pretty clean 5 waves down forming "a" of the correction. At the time, I probably would have assumed that was the bottom.

It then spends 11 years correcting that entire 5-wave move from the ATH by 38% back upward. Notice the action in those years.. nothing impulsive. All overlapping and corrective in nature. Any big gains were only temporary and were usually followed by steep drops. That's what you get in a long term bear market with a stock or index. But it was indeed a "b" wave and the fibs are how we know.

Since that top in October of 2019 at $23.27, it entered into a very impulsive move downward to new lows. It does get diagonal in nature which is common for "c" waves. We call them ending diagonals.

The bottom from a couple weeks ago touched just shy of the 200% extension level downward from the Wave 1 low and Wave 2 high of this Wave "c". It does look to have permanently bottomed at $2.64. A bottom of a 20-year trend. WOW.

Edit: Nothing is ever 100%. I am not guaranteeing that it won't go lower, just showing that the probabilities and fibs point to it not.



Where does it go from here?

UP!

Kidding aside.. if you want to ride for the long haul, you could jump in with shares here. But who knows how long it takes and how quick it starts to rise. The next move could be a wave i within a wave (i) within a Wave 1 within a Wave (1). Lots and lots of build up before anything significant. I will put it on radar and alert if I see a nice setup like I've been tracking with PROG, VEON, and DNN. It's in that realm of stock right now.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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agdaddy04 said:

Are you guys in NIO long term? Is it one I might want to scale back on?

What range of CC's are you looking at on TTD?
I am in NIO for now....long term I guess. I wasn't one of the early buyers in single digits, or $10, or whatever it was. My ownership was $52.00. I have been selling $50 Calls against my shares for ~$1.50, or more, premium. I have been doing this for quite some time and my ownership is in the mid-lower $40's now. I didn't think I would have held onto NIO as long as I have but the $50 Strike Call at ~$1.50-ish premium has been a solid play for me and I think I will just continue until I get exercised. My Nov 19th Calls will expire worthless and I'll just sell Calls again sometime next week. Hope this helps you in some way.
Brewmaster
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AG
Irish 2.0 said:

No…even he scores more than I do…
you sure? I mean do slump busters count? LOL



agdaddy04
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AG
It does, thanks
agdaddy04
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Thanks kind sir. I bought the 200 shares off your recommendation and it obviously turned into 2000 shortly after. Hit 100% gain on it this week. Guess it's dropped a bit since then, but very solid last month.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Kindly appreciated! I bought in around 3.84 six-eight weeks ago when volume started running. It recently formed a goal post formation, so I'm hoping it'll start running. It did pump nearly 20% in one day late last week.

Hoping it gets meme'd and can run crazy. Heavily shorted stock with low float.
Dan Scott
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Woke up to take piss and saw CLOV about to go below 6. I'm going back to sleep. Mothereffer
Dan Scott
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CLOV issued 52M shares at $5.75 to raise $300M.

F these people. They had $600M cash before this and now $900M. They are either going bust and know it or fund something else
Aggie118
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Need $CEI to break through $1.53 to infinity and beyond.
gigemJTH12
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Why did $WWR spike so much AH just to come right back down?
cisgenderedAggie
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gigemJTH12 said:

Why did $WWR spike so much AH just to come right back down?


Because it's $WWR
Engine10
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AG
gigemJTH12 said:

Why did $WWR spike so much AH just to come right back down?

Sale (really an MOU, nothing final) was announced AH so you get the usual stuff there. No terms announced either, they might be giving if it all away for a $1 (doubt it but you get the point). Today will tell the story about how much the insiders know/value the sale.

I'm more curious about this 100k candle 5 minutes before the bell, maybe someone got wind early.
AgEng06
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That was just OA rebalancing.
jwhitlock3
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Dan Scott said:

CLOV issued 52M shares at $5.75 to raise $300M.

F these people. They had $600M cash before this and now $900M. They are either going bust and know it or fund something else


This really doesn't make sense at all, but they sure screwed the shareholders with it.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Who do most business-related press releases come PM or AH? Why can't someone do an earnings report at 12 noon?!?

Seems like retail gets the shaft with such a move. Has there ever been an attempt to legislate that such things are provided during regular business hours?
cageybee77
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AMD strong premarket - wonder if it's just NVIDIA's earnings.
Red Rover
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There will always be people getting earlier knowledge on these. Doing it during regular hours might give them more benefit to profit due to higher liquidity and availability to trade options.
austinAG90
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Thursday Macros....

Equities Near Overnight Highs...Treasuries Retreat... Has Inflation Peaked

Yesterday's 20 year auction was not good, but it was not a disaster like the last 30 year, so after a mild sell off, the treasury market caught a bid... Overnight 10 years reached 1.57 at 3 am, but by 5 am, they were back to just under 1.60, where they are now... Equities did the same, hitting a low of 4684 early in the session and grinding higher to 4700, where we are now... GS remains bullish for a trade.

JPM is the latest back to throw in the towel , bring rate hikes for the Fed into September of 2022... They had been at waiting until 2023.. They now expect two in 2022, with the next one in December 2022... Here is what they said

"That will prompt the Fed's policy-setting Open Market Committee to raise its benchmark rate from near zero in September with a further hike in December and one every subsequent quarter, the economists said. They predicted the increases will stop once the inflation-adjusted rate is back at zero."

read that last line closely, once the inflation adjusted rate is back to zero... That is a lot of rate hikes given where inflation is now... DB was out calling for 2 hikes next year and 3 each the following two years... If they are correct we could be looking at significantly higher short rates...

Inflation... While we have been pounding the table on inflation since last year, now everyone is talking about it... When the media gets as focused as it is now, that probably means we are close or at a peak, at least temporarily... Oil is lower and looks to be breaking down as Biden and others are trying to release strategic stock piles... But demand remains strong.. Coal futures in China have fallen 55% over the past month and WTI has fallen to 6 week lows... Baltic Dry is down recently and auto chip shortages seem to be coming to an end... Is this the end of the supply chain and inflation issues ? Not even close, just a temporary lull...

Fed... WILL IT BE POWELL OR BRAINARD... We have been asked that question by clients and fixed income friends constantly the last few weeks... We had 10 people ask yesterday.... Here is how we see it... Given that Biden's team has waited this long, we think it is leaning towards Brainard... The 4 day window earlier in the week that Biden talked about takes us into the weekend... So that indicates a surprise... Who do we prefer?..Powell... Not so much that the top line management towards rates will be that different, but more so the brain drain at the Fed will accelerate... You already have one vacant seat, and Quarles and Clarida will be gone, so now that is three seats.. If Powell is not reappointed he will resign... So now that is 4... And even worse is that Yellen came out a few months ago publicly backing Powell, so it tells you if Powell is not reappointed, her vote is not really being given the weight it should be... So Yellen would probably exit before the mid terms... So we ask, who is really behind the decision making when it comes to the Treasury and the Fed?... And that uncertainty could be a problem for markets... 5 Fed speakers today.

Next week will be a compact week for treasuries and probably lite for corporate issuance... Two years and 5 years will be Monday... 7 years and 2 year floaters Tuesday.... There is no early official close on Wednesday, but unofficially trading will slow down in the afternoon... And Friday will be a half day... So expect some back up in rates next week to set up for the auctions... Traders have been good lately getting the treasury to pay their concession.

Corporates 4 deals led by CP came to market yesterday bringing the weekly total to over 50 billion... Canadian Pacific deal was over 5 times oversubscribed. In junk three companies issued over 3.3 billion...demand remains strong...

Contrarian nature of trading has been developed over many years...we see that CalPers Board has approved the funds to take on leverage and move re-allocate to alternative investments... They refuse to alter their 6.8% hurdle . With rates so low for so long, increases in risk is the only way to get the necessary returns... Taking risk is not free... And will be troublesome at some point... So when we see one of the biggest pension funds resort to leverage (we are ok with alternative investments) we start to get worried that a reversal is coming...
tam2002
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Will elox be at zero by tomorrow. Good Lord this is crazy
Charismatic Megafauna
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I used to work for a company that would always report before the bell and start their earnings call at market open, then in the next company town hall show a chart of the company stock price action during the earnings call tagged with what was discussed at that time. It was interesting but the company went under so I don't know how valuable it was
Charismatic Megafauna
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I'm terrified of the bicycle chart right now. If spy doesn't puke to the 55day ema today or tomorrow and my vxx calls expire worthless I'm buying a bunch of spy puts for Monday or wed
La Bamba
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ELOX just ugly
RenoAg
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La Bamba said:

ELOX just ugly


Wow. It's a bloodbath.
RenoAg
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And CLOV just took pity on it and gave it some company so it wouldn't feel lonely.
Ags2013
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WWR news once again results in zero movement. So frustrating.
Ragoo
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Not sure why y'all insist on trading these small cap companies.
Ags2013
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RIP to whoever holds SAVA, CLOV and ELOX
E
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CLOV and ELOX

About time to cut bait
JbKing45
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Ags2013 said:

RIP to whoever holds SAVA, CLOV and ELOX
just wait for WWR to be in the red at the end of the day.
cageybee77
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...that don't make a profit. I have just a few ELOX shares thankfully. But if it "bottoms", I might buy a few more.....I don't want to own more than $1000 worth of this stuff.
Saltyag15
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AG
Nvidia up 9% premarket ahead of earnings. Wonder if it will be a "sell the news" situation, or if it will rocket. I hate earnings.
cageybee77
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AMD up over 4 bucks (atm) in sympathy methinks.
ProgN
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NVDA reported earnings yesterday ATC.
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