La Bamba said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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4500 will trade again. Then that gap at 2750 will get filled.

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You wouldn't be talking about the S&P there, would you? ::laughs nervously::

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I tend to think we have one more puke and then resume our up trend for a while.

Mornun!

Everything green - US, EU & Asia



IMO watch for fake breakouts. I think some may get some uptrend traction here but others may head fake a bit.

Watch VIX for any spike above 21.

May get to trade a little today so will be watching closely the action.....particularly volumes.

Next week OpEx so keep that i mind.



Trade wisely!

Thursday Macros....We having fun yet????

Risk ON.... Equities at Overnight Highs...CALM BEFORE THE STORM

The most unusual players came to calm the markets storm in the last 24 hours... But it has worked for now, as S+P futures are up 41 points, at the highs of the overnight session...even Hong Kong equities soared over 3%... Who were the unusual players?... Mitch McConnell to the temporary rescue of the debt ceiling, Vlad Putin to the rescue of the European gas crisis, The Secretary of Energy to tap the Strategic Petroleum reserve (even though there is plenty of oil in the US), the ECB announced that they will be ready to buy bonds if needed after their programs end.... Meanwhile our call for volatility this week has been happening... Unfortunately the big Kahuna happens tomorrow with the unemployment number . The survey number continues to inch up, now 500,000... We think that number is low and we will take the over... Challenger survey announced this morning shows the US Hiring Plans SURGED in September to the highest level in data back to 2004... In large part reflecting retailers gearing up for the holiday shopping season.

Credit... While we pointed out that CDX HY broke out of the range early yesterday with a 311 print, buyers came in and brought it back to 301 currently... We saw buyers where only 3 new issuers of IG came into the market yesterday with 6.5 billion, bringing the week total to the expectation of 20 billion. The highlight was 11.5 billion of orders for the 3 billion Pepsi deal... Junk continues to OK ,where 3 issuers came to market with 800 mm...

Treasuries... Staying in the range for now... Tomorrow will be the big breakout day in front of a 3 day weekend for bonds... CDS for the US topped out yesterday for 6 month CDS at 31, we don't see a reading today, but clearly much lower due to the deal with McConnell and the Dems... We see today's range on 10 years at 1.48 to 1.56... And do not sense we will see anything but clean up trades in front of what could be a soaring employment number tomorrow... Either way, the move, whether we are right or wrong on direction of the number tomorrow, will be based on the outcome tomorrow, along with the indication of Fed tapering announcement on November 3. But after the employment number we come back to 2 huge auctions of 3 years and 10 years Tuesday, with 30 years on Wednesday... So Friday afternoon there could be some set up...

Our view on equities and the economy are mixed looking out to the end of the year... While we sense that Covid is waning and people are getting out...meaning spending... We think that equities are high and could stumble... But the optimistic season for equities starts in a few weeks... May be tempered by the Fed tapering in November... So we are still thinking one more mild correction back to 10%, or the 200 day moving averages... We will leave it there for a more in-depth view after we see employment tomorrow.

Pfizer asks FDA to authorize Covid vaccine for kids ages 5 to 11

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/07/pfizer-asks-fda-to-authorize-covid-vaccine-for-kids-ages-5-to-11.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard


Nope, not putting this crap in my son. I hope there's huge pushback against any school boards that try to mandate this.

TexasAg2017 said:

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FJ43 said:

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Easiest trade today might be fading the open ATM if SPY gets to 439.40...ish

442 big level IMO

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So if I'm understanding this correctly, ATM spy puts if we open around the 439 level? Going to paper trade this at open and see what happens

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I would watch the open for any run and buy weekly (tomorrow's) ATM puts at next resistance rejection. 439.88 & 441.86 are two stiff levels I see with some noise in-between.

This would be a scalp only.

VIX puts.

Congrats if you held onto some. They are double now.

Ask yourself, if you could make 20% on your money every day, would you take it blindly and run happy?

Every baseball field is different. What's your field like?

Some people hit doubles with 30%. Some people hit doubles with 20%.

Also, a LEAP moving 20% is not going to elicit the same strategy as a weekly 0DTE hitting 20%.......time and movement. It's all up to each individual.

cptthunder said:

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If yall had to put numbers to it how would everyone define singles, doubles etc for options?

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Just me...in baseball terms but not when we refer to a double. When people refer to a double its a 100% ROI.

Baseball analogy for me on scalps....
10-25% = Single
25-50% = Double
50-75% = Triple
75-100%+ = Home Run

McInnis 03 said:

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Ask yourself, if you could make 20% on your money every day, would you take it blindly and run happy?

Every baseball field is different. What's your field like?

Some people hit doubles with 30%. Some people hit doubles with 20%.

Also, a LEAP moving 20% is not going to elicit the same strategy as a weekly 0DTE hitting 20%.......time and movement. It's all up to each individual.

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I wish I could play like Congress and read the catcher's signals.

Spoony Love said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Ask yourself, if you could make 20% on your money every day, would you take it blindly and run happy?

Every baseball field is different. What's your field like?

Some people hit doubles with 30%. Some people hit doubles with 20%.

Also, a LEAP moving 20% is not going to elicit the same strategy as a weekly 0DTE hitting 20%.......time and movement. It's all up to each individual.

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I wish I could play like Congress and read the catcher's signals.

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Congress is filled with a bunch of garbage humans so all you really need is listen for the trash cans banging
Speaking of trashcans GO ASTROS!!