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McInnis 03
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:53p, 9/1/21
AG
Sarcastic McInnis is sarcastic
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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Jet Black
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:04p, 9/1/21
Tomas Hermensa said:
The posting rate here has gone down tremendously, which on some level is good because at peak it was hard to follow. Has the thread lost some audience? Are more people simply less active right now trading for one reason or another, like I am? Have people stopped posted useless babble and we're left with less, but higher quality posts? If so I'm the only one posting useless babble.


Seems like much of the stuff on here is options related now. Maybe that caused some people to lose interest. Also, did the decline coincide with the change from Trump to Biden?

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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:08p, 9/1/21
AG
I am almost purely tactically trading and therefore posting less. For me, it's recognition that we are due for a puke and not having a lot relevant to say while we are melting up.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:09p, 9/1/21
AG
You guys probably don't want to hear about me selling 40 CLF puts each week.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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slacker00
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:16p, 9/1/21
AG
Tomas Hermensa said:
I'm not necessarily looking at put spreads, but the Oct 42.5/40 look decent?
Not sure if that was a question for me. I've spend a lot of time back testing a couple strategies for put credit spreads and struggle getting the on paper numbers to work to my satisfaction.

Looking at the numbers for max gain/loss on that Oct spread (Sell Oct P 42.5/40 for $73 credit) the risk to reward ratio is 2.4 You need a better than ~70% win rate to come out ahead in the long term with that r/r.

The other problem with this setup in my mind is that the "oversold" signal isn't strong enough for that far out of an expiration. Ideally, I'd want to be out of the trade in a few days or a week. The longer dated spread doesn't move to profit much unless you get a large delta for just a few days. The profits of the credit spread come as we get closer to expiration (without a big delta move). If I go with a shorter expiration contracts the r/r gets worst and my strategy has to have an even better probability of success.

I'll have to watch and see how 30k's ITM call on reversal works out. Not sure what criteria he is using for reversal as that makes a difference on how well it does.
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jwhitlock3
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:17p, 9/1/21
$30,000 Millionaire said:
You guys probably don't want to hear about me selling 40 CLF puts each week.


Actually yes...I'd love that. If I don't take a trade you post I at least go chart it, same with several others in here.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to slacker00 • 9:26p, 9/1/21
I look at similar strikes closer to expiry and even if the stock doesn't move up much, theta would eatxh this spread quite a bit in the next few weeks. Also I look at the delta if the stock were to reverse and move up. If you think this is the bottom or near the bottom, that might be enticing. Like I said, it's not something I'm looking at. As you said the r/r isn't there.
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RigsTx
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9:30p, 9/1/21
AG
I follow this thread everyday but I haven't been able to trade much over the past few months.

I appreciate all the insight and strategies that are posted here.
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slacker00
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:43p, 9/1/21
AG
No, not a trade I'm looking at taking, but I took the opportunity of a -3 ATR play to discuss the basic setup.

Kind of a nerd when it comes to the numbers and testing out strategies and have been trying to adapt a mechanical system around a similar entry.
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bmoochie
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:53p, 9/1/21
AG
For me I have gotten busier with work but I look at this thread more than the premium board now. Lurking and learning more so.
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gougler08
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9:58p, 9/1/21
AG
I still follow along but work continues to kick my ass lately so I haven't been as active either
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lobwedgephil
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10:04p, 9/1/21
I think a lot of people have had a rough go, despite the indices soaring, been a tough trading market unless you actively manage and know what you are doing.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 10:07p, 9/1/21
AG
I just assumed a lot of it was people getting busy with real work, but maybe also the small cap/ crypto stock absolute beat down that some of us took. (chinese crypto in particular).
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Peter Klaven
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In reply to wanderer • 10:09p, 9/1/21
AG
As someone who mostly lurks I would characterize this as pretty accurate and succinct. Many small time posters are probably trying to claw back to green from the beginning of the year "good times".
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BrokeAssAggie
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10:13p, 9/1/21
Maybe we need to take more trips to the beach.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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10:13p, 9/1/21
Saw an interesting trend tonight looking at some charts.

All the major credit card companies (V, AXP, MA, DFS) all started in July or August to start a downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows since that time.

Just food for thought.
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FTAG 2000
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10:14p, 9/1/21
AG
I think it's a couple of things - market has kind of sucked as of late. Summer with family vacations, kids going back to school, more folks vaccinated or just over covid and just going back to normal life and focusing less on trading.
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bmoochie
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 10:17p, 9/1/21
AG
lobwedgephil said:
I think a lot of people have had a rough go, despite the indices soaring, been a tough trading market unless you actively manage and know what you are doing.


This is super accurate. Part of my learning curve was realizing some of these trades have to be managed very closely. I would see trades go from winners, get tied up for a few hours and then down 50%
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Ragoo
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10:33p, 9/1/21
AG
I've basically been working 14-16 hour days living in midland since 6/28. Some weekend travel home but busy AF otherwise. I've tried to take longer term trades around equity and covered calls instead of speculating with long options.
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trip98
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In reply to Brewmaster • 10:37p, 9/1/21
AG
BREwmaster said:
Bosco said:
mazag08 said:
Just to reiterate..

CHWY had a 27% increase in revenue over the same period last year when everyone was locked in their homes buying EVERYTHING online. That is actually incredible. They retained customers, grew their user base, but didn't hit revenue "expectations".

The very second the press release was even announced the stock sold off $10+ on 67,000 volume. Somebody shorted and hit all of the retail idiot's stop losses on the way down.

Way to go dummies. Thanks for the cheap shares of a strong company getting stronger.


My buddy makes a killing picking monthly calls up after an earnings beat down on companies just like this.

CHWY verticals tomorrow for me! and kudos to your buddy, not a bad way to make a living!


They don't have November options or that would be my target.
What do you think about October 90/95 sprrad. Cost around $180
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Glitch
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10:47p, 9/1/21
AG
I am still following, but more interactive on the ag discord app.
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OutlawAG04
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11:08p, 9/1/21
I'm guilty of not posting much lately but I would say most on my end has been related to our 3rd addition to the family and have a large spike of projects at my real job. I think the ones that are actively following this board are like 30k and are waiting for the puke. I've been pretty selective myself on anything I get into at this point. Trying to build more powder and get in quick entry/exits. With Biden, this variant bs, and us making new highs what seems like everyday it seems like a very extended game of jenga waiting for it to drop. I will probably miss some big plays and I'm ok with that at this point vs holding the bag. That being said, is it lotto time yet?!

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FJ43
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3:24a, 9/2/21
Mornun to ya!

Early snapshot....



Mostly green around the horn.

ES did trade a little lower than prior close in the overnight session so let's see what happens today.

IMO SPY 451.50ish needs to hold...if not think we have a little selling pressure.

Tactical trades and from here on out very selective for me. Tough trading IMO unless you are quick and disciplined.

Unemployment numbers this week and leading into a Holiday weekend IMO doubt we bull rush into new highs the rest of the week.



Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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3:29a, 9/2/21

I haven't been posting near as much intraday. As I have said each morning for a while its tactical trading for me primarily.

Tactical trades for me are mostly day/weekly trades. They are quick in and out for the most part.

Very few long positions and that's a relative term these days. MAs excluded of course.

I just don't have a lot of confidence posting a ton of charts that are set up from a TA standpoint to risk a rug pull up here....

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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4:47a, 9/2/21

For the degenerates in the bunch....this could run away premarket for the below numbers. $111.38 current premarket high.

FUTU

Day 2 move?
Watch 110.40 as trigger.
111C or 112C potential play or can go out a week or two.
115C as lotto.
MT of 6/30 & 8/17 is $132.12
50EMA is 114.45...ish

You spread masters can come up with one here.



Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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cageybee77
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6:19a, 9/2/21
AG
I'm not sure about the idea that "things have sucked lately". Like others, I've changed the way I trade and have been taking (quick) smaller gains because it's safer and as a result, I've slowly gotten ahead 20% (no brag because I got my a$$ kicked early in the year). This requires (as others have pointed out) a lot of attention. I couldn't do this if I wasn't retired. I have no long-term holds in my non-etf account - I'm not holding and waiting for stock x to "pop".
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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6:29a, 9/2/21
Mornin all. I guess we've also lost foggy and third coast. Also Irish hasn't posted here as much. Miss those guys.

Today I will start trying to get net free on those TSLA butterflies. Looks like the $730 pin first.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:01a, 9/2/21
AG
TSLA is a good lotto / day trade if you see it start to charge over yesterday's close and stay ahead of the 5 minute 8 EMA.

AMZN has moved a lot. It could get "stuck" where it is.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Whitehouse Road
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7:05a, 9/2/21
AG
Foggy still post occasionally. IIRC third coast deleted his account because of potential issues at work that can come from the society we find ourselves a part of.
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McInnis 03
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7:34a, 9/2/21
AG
initial move on jobless report was a spike up........beware the "fade the move" play....could be a quick sell here coming.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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Ranger222
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7:49a, 9/2/21
AG
been busy as well....semester has started so now dealing with students and other admin BS. Check positions in the morning, at lunch, and then maybe try and sneak a check around 3:30 to see if I want to close positions or open new ones. When I can't check positions frequently, I'm either holding just stock or longer dated call/put positions. Intraday moves won't kill me if I can't act quickly. This style is pretty stress free for me and actually keeps me in positions longer and not react to quick moves. For instance I'm currently holding COIN OCT 300C. I think I bought ~5.7, and then they dropped next day to 4.3. I actually added there but if I were checking daily and only thinking short term I may have exited for a loss. Instead I held and now are sitting ~7.5. Also with a more passive approach I can close one contract a day, collect profit and enjoy the ride up rather than taking profits quickly and looking immediately for next position. BTW I think COIN touches 278 here -- i'll look to exit a majority of the position there.

Current positions in COIN, ETSY, DIS and NTLA. Very small in NCTY and HUT. Going to look to close out most of my stuff today ahead of holiday weekend just because.
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Spoony Love
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7:51a, 9/2/21
AG
From a newer perspective, it has definitely slowed down. I think in large part there was a lot of basic conversation happening, myself included, with new traders asking lots of questions. Several on this board were quick to advise or explain. I think as a few of us have settled in, timed with the way the market has changed this summer, there would naturally be a slow down. This market feels hard to understand to an inexperienced trader like myself, and with some of the experienced traders moving more tactically, there doesn't seem to be as many potential tips to pass along. Still a lot of learning going on though. I have enjoyed recently the anatomy of a trade postings, winners and losers.

Also, several have mentioned they are working more, which is good and may mean a pickup in the market later this year?
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jwhitlock3
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8:12a, 9/2/21
Wife and I welcomed our second on August 12th (whoop!) so the leadup to that and then everyone adjusting, plus market being at crazy highs had me pulling back and moving a lot to cash.

Parker Nicole is our little girl and we've got a two year old little boy as well. They are why I trade and I enjoy the community here with Ags. I've seen several posts (FJ) of folks praying for the families in here and that means a lot!
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ProgN
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In reply to jwhitlock3 • 8:18a, 9/2/21
Adorable
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FJ43
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In reply to jwhitlock3 • 8:22a, 9/2/21
What a beautiful little girl. Y'all are for sure Blessed!

Love the name also...my oldest son's name is Parker.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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