Train leaving the station?
Stock Markets
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Last: 2 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
The really bad thing for me is normally work is too busy for me to check in with much detail until lunch time...would have worked perfect but I'm slow todayoldarmy1 said:Sorry I couldn't weigh in early. I stayed up really late and had bought the ES S&P Futures -41. Got up and immediately was entering trades.gougler08 said:Up above 32 now...would have triggered my original target sell price if I didn't panic this morninggougler08 said:
I definitely violated options 101 of panic selling this morning on the ROKU calls
This was a repeat shake after 2008 New Years. Signatures were nearly identical so if its the machines then they need a tweak. Ha!
Damn the luck
MU kept the bullish engulfing, so hopefully that means some short term movement up to fill that tiny gap at 33.60.
TWTR never got above 29 so that seems like fairly firm resistance for now
TWTR never got above 29 so that seems like fairly firm resistance for now
Closed .06 from Monday's close on the S&P. 2506 resistance on the 3 day (Looks to be settling higher at 2509.77). Hopefully todays action was a staging day to bust it upward above the 2525 level.
Only trade that would be considered potential sell side was covered calls $32.50 (Covered calls sold for $0.75 to $0.85 towards close) on ROKU on all those trading overbuys down on the flash. Only accounted for 11% of total position I want to hold long term. Actually hoping for some pullback tomorrow on ROKU to eat that Friday premium away and end up with a net over net gain on share price.
We are a long way from determining if this has been a severe correction or a beginning of a bear market. First gate is 2525 then a 50% retracement from lows in the 2575 area. I think 2525 gets us 2575 and that area is where my full hedge strategy would be applied.
Trade idea for tomorrow? I would buy SQ at the open (or right now post market at $57.21 - if you aren't risk adverse to overnight exposure) and sell the closest upward covered call against it. Markets head upward you get called out but make at least $1/share profit. If a pullback then you cover your backside.
I also watch for a flash from entry upward and do both a covered call and a cheap Put. So lets say SQ opens at $57.80. It would be almost certain it hits above $58 so you enter the stock at $57.80 and as it tops $58 you place an ask on a rising covered call at $58. The second that gets filled you look at the $56.50 Put dropping and if its less than 25 cents you grab it. The $58 premium expiring Friday would be $1.35-$1.50 likely. From your $57.80 entry price the $58 rise in stock price nets out your Put and you have $135-$150 profit per 100 shares if trading above $58 at close Friday. Or you have dual protection if the markets reversed.
I post this one in anticipation of a green futures tomorrow into the open.
Only trade that would be considered potential sell side was covered calls $32.50 (Covered calls sold for $0.75 to $0.85 towards close) on ROKU on all those trading overbuys down on the flash. Only accounted for 11% of total position I want to hold long term. Actually hoping for some pullback tomorrow on ROKU to eat that Friday premium away and end up with a net over net gain on share price.
We are a long way from determining if this has been a severe correction or a beginning of a bear market. First gate is 2525 then a 50% retracement from lows in the 2575 area. I think 2525 gets us 2575 and that area is where my full hedge strategy would be applied.
Trade idea for tomorrow? I would buy SQ at the open (or right now post market at $57.21 - if you aren't risk adverse to overnight exposure) and sell the closest upward covered call against it. Markets head upward you get called out but make at least $1/share profit. If a pullback then you cover your backside.
I also watch for a flash from entry upward and do both a covered call and a cheap Put. So lets say SQ opens at $57.80. It would be almost certain it hits above $58 so you enter the stock at $57.80 and as it tops $58 you place an ask on a rising covered call at $58. The second that gets filled you look at the $56.50 Put dropping and if its less than 25 cents you grab it. The $58 premium expiring Friday would be $1.35-$1.50 likely. From your $57.80 entry price the $58 rise in stock price nets out your Put and you have $135-$150 profit per 100 shares if trading above $58 at close Friday. Or you have dual protection if the markets reversed.
I post this one in anticipation of a green futures tomorrow into the open.
OA, thanks for the detail explanation. Very valuable and sometimes this gets lost in the quick posting and jargon. Good to see for those that might be casually observing.
It's gonna get panic oversold. I'll bet they do a huge stock buyback this year.
Quote:
To Apple investors:
Today we are revising our guidance for Apple's fiscal 2019 first quarter, which ended on December 29. We now expect the following:
Revenue of approximately $84 billion
Gross margin of approximately 38 percent
Operating expenses of approximately $8.7 billion
Other income/(expense) of approximately $550 million
Tax rate of approximately 16.5 percent before discrete items
We expect the number of shares used in computing diluted EPS to be approximately 4.77 billion.
Based on these estimates, our revenue will be lower than our original guidance for the quarter, with other items remaining broadly in line with our guidance.
While it will be a number of weeks before we complete and report our final results, we wanted to get some preliminary information to you now. Our final results may differ somewhat from these preliminary estimates.
When we discussed our Q1 guidance with you about 60 days ago, we knew the first quarter would be impacted by both macroeconomic and Apple-specific factors. Based on our best estimates of how these would play out, we predicted that we would report slight revenue growth year-over-year for the quarter. As you may recall, we discussed four factors:
First, we knew the different timing of our iPhone launches would affect our year-over-year compares. Our top models, iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, shipped in Q418 placing the channel fill and early sales in that quarter, whereas last year iPhone X shipped in Q118, placing the channel fill and early sales in the December quarter. We knew this would create a difficult compare for Q119, and this played out broadly in line with our expectations.
Second, we knew the strong US dollar would create foreign exchange headwinds and forecasted this would reduce our revenue growth by about 200 basis points as compared to the previous year. This also played out broadly in line with our expectations.
Third, we knew we had an unprecedented number of new products to ramp during the quarter and predicted that supply constraints would gate our sales of certain products during Q1. Again, this also played out broadly in line with our expectations. Sales of Apple Watch Series 4 and iPad Pro were constrained much or all of the quarter. AirPods and MacBook Air were also constrained.
Fourth, we expected economic weakness in some emerging markets. This turned out to have a significantly greater impact than we had projected.
In addition, these and other factors resulted in fewer iPhone upgrades than we had anticipated.
These last two points have led us to reduce our revenue guidance. I'd like to go a bit deeper on both.
Down 8%
Rut roh. Well we'll see what kind of underlying strength not only AAPL but the markets have. The unexpected is always fun. Not! But it will tell us a lot. A steep open from the halt with movement upward and even close to even would be extremely bullish.
So ROKU is trading down, along with everything else after hours. Here is the ROKU strategy on covered calls - which are about to pay off nicely. Average price I sold the covered call was $0.7712 cents. 100 covered calls is 10k shares protection. I received a net $7712 in premium for the covered calls. The calls closed at $0.80 cents so that's why you see red loss of $288. But ignore the loss number because its irrelevant. You don't lose anything on the covered call premium. I am guaranteed to collect $7712 Friday at close.
NOW - if ROKU is trading above $32.50 then I will have 10k shares called out at $32.50 paid to me and I keep the $7712 premium. That means my net sell premium is like having sold the stock at $33.27. But if ROKU drops and stays below $32.50 then I keep the shares and pocket the $7712. With a net entry price of $27.15 I either reduce those shares down to a net $26.38 or I net $6.12 per share on the 10k shares.
Make sense?
So ROKU is trading down, along with everything else after hours. Here is the ROKU strategy on covered calls - which are about to pay off nicely. Average price I sold the covered call was $0.7712 cents. 100 covered calls is 10k shares protection. I received a net $7712 in premium for the covered calls. The calls closed at $0.80 cents so that's why you see red loss of $288. But ignore the loss number because its irrelevant. You don't lose anything on the covered call premium. I am guaranteed to collect $7712 Friday at close.
NOW - if ROKU is trading above $32.50 then I will have 10k shares called out at $32.50 paid to me and I keep the $7712 premium. That means my net sell premium is like having sold the stock at $33.27. But if ROKU drops and stays below $32.50 then I keep the shares and pocket the $7712. With a net entry price of $27.15 I either reduce those shares down to a net $26.38 or I net $6.12 per share on the 10k shares.
Make sense?
Additionally, you can take your premium collected and purchase more shares on a dip to then sell more covered calls against.
And when I say the unexpected I don't mean AAPL's lower revenues but the fact that they announced it today.
I mean did anyone not know AAPL was not going to be at the previous revenue? That's why the stock isn't $220.
Remember that as big money looks at openings on long term major brands. They easily could be saying "We value AAPL at $180 and its $147. That's an 18% ROI I expect on AAPL this year. BUY
It didn't drop below my entry so I don't care much about the short term action.
I mean did anyone not know AAPL was not going to be at the previous revenue? That's why the stock isn't $220.
Remember that as big money looks at openings on long term major brands. They easily could be saying "We value AAPL at $180 and its $147. That's an 18% ROI I expect on AAPL this year. BUY
It didn't drop below my entry so I don't care much about the short term action.
Ragoo showing pro-level!Ragoo said:
Additionally, you can take your premium collected and purchase more shares on a dip to then sell more covered calls against.
If I wasn't loaded on AAPL I would be a buyer under $147
Looking at any leaps on them?
So dang pricey on growth company leaps.IrishTxAggie said:
Looking at any leaps on them?
ROKU dropped down under $30.50 on a flash. Still over a dollar down from close. Can you imagine those poor souls I sold all those covered calls to opening near a dime in the morning? Fastest loss on their entries just ahead of the close. Ouch
Extreme volatility in this market. Not healthy.
70 point futures drop on light volume last night. 70 point bounce off that low. 20 point pop in 3 minutes at the close and then a 40 point drop right after and falling.
If the market gives up that Dec 27 ramp, lows will likely retest.
Sell volume is comparatively light, but price action is super weak.
- If tomorrow gets sold off, all of my macro configs will likely be short again.
70 point futures drop on light volume last night. 70 point bounce off that low. 20 point pop in 3 minutes at the close and then a 40 point drop right after and falling.
If the market gives up that Dec 27 ramp, lows will likely retest.
Sell volume is comparatively light, but price action is super weak.
- If tomorrow gets sold off, all of my macro configs will likely be short again.
AAPL just dipped under $146 as of typing this.
I already had a position in AAPL and tempted to buy more at such a low price. Hasn't been this low since July.
Seems like some of this was drop was already expected and baked into the price somewhat, making me wonder just how much lower it can actually go before it has a solid support heading into February ER.
I already had a position in AAPL and tempted to buy more at such a low price. Hasn't been this low since July.
Seems like some of this was drop was already expected and baked into the price somewhat, making me wonder just how much lower it can actually go before it has a solid support heading into February ER.
I bought SQ at the close for follow through at the open. Damnit AAPL had to pee in my Cherios.
AAPL now down nearly 40% in 3 months. Not a knife I am going to catch. If looking for a bottom there, you'll have plenty of time to get in.
Makes perfect senseclaym711 said:
AAPL now down nearly 40% in 3 months. Not a knife I am going to catch. If looking for a bottom there, you'll have plenty of time to get in.
Have we reached peak smartphone? The technology is now so advanced there seems to be little incentive to spend a lot of money to upgrade phones. Apple is still one of the most profitable companies but the supplier cuts is not good news at all and tim cook specifically mentioning a slowdown in China is pretty bad.
Nowhere near peak yet. Still lots of technology to come.
The Chinese slowdown is likely due to the lawsuit they just lost to Qualcomm on a cease and desist for certain iPhone models.
The Chinese slowdown is likely due to the lawsuit they just lost to Qualcomm on a cease and desist for certain iPhone models.
IrishTxAggie said:
Nowhere near peak yet. Still lots of technology to come.
The Chinese slowdown is likely due to the lawsuit they just lost to Qualcomm on a cease and desist for certain iPhone models.
You think so? The camera is only so good and the network only so fast. I'm sure there will be more gimmicks to come but I have a tough time seeing it. Don't forget apple purposefully created obsolescence on its older models so people would buy new ones.
So you bought $270k worth of Roku stock oldarmy? Bold. I like it
i think we're gunna need a bigger boatGigEmAgs08 said:
So you bought $270k worth of Roku stock oldarmy? Bold. I like it
That guy has been preaching the 80% retraces on breaks of parabolic charts...a lot of stocks have broke and major indexes are about to. We shall see but I just can't comprehend it
Also anyone looking at GSAT?
AAPL looks to have been a complete surprise too. Usually you'll see a big volume signature the day of a release but it was less than last few days.
Now I'm a holder on 80% of trades entered without a hedge and I am 95% without a hedge on 401k/SEPS.
Have to wait to open to get anything in place. And I was just on the phone with AAPL today for the call center business. Gonna give those guys grief tomorrow.
Now I'm a holder on 80% of trades entered without a hedge and I am 95% without a hedge on 401k/SEPS.
Have to wait to open to get anything in place. And I was just on the phone with AAPL today for the call center business. Gonna give those guys grief tomorrow.
JW
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