I had a great day today. Only regret is I got stopped out of some SPY calls that if I held onto would have made money at EOD. Can't complain about a 4-figure gain just on options.

claym711 said:

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That was destined to blast near the end of day

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Yeah you were money on that call, really right before it started that power hour ramp up.

topher06 said:

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claym711 said:

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That was destined to blast near the end of day

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Yeah you were money on that call, really right before it started that power hour ramp up.

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And he called yesterday's low being in the last 90 min of the day as well. Kudos to Clay. I hope he says he expects the market to pull back some more over the next week.

Does anyone else feel bad for those nameless retail guys who buy into fad stocks like Chesapeake only to completely get their lunch eaten? Seems like there is a sizable contingent in America that falls for pump and dump every time.

IrishTxAggie said:

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topher06 said:

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Does anyone else feel bad for those nameless retail guys who buy into fad stocks like Chesapeake only to completely get their lunch eaten? Seems like there is a sizable contingent in America that falls for pump and dump every time.

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No. I enjoy taking their money. I can do better with it than they can obviously

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Don't get me wrong, its a great source of bonus income. Just feels like the stimulus payments (not getting into whether those were appropriate to hand out in this threat) are just going straight back to the wealthy through stupid stock purchases like CHK at $60/share on no news even close to justifying the run up.

That's what would've happened anyways. The stock market just expedited the process

topher06 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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topher06 said:

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Does anyone else feel bad for those nameless retail guys who buy into fad stocks like Chesapeake only to completely get their lunch eaten? Seems like there is a sizable contingent in America that falls for pump and dump every time.

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No. I enjoy taking their money. I can do better with it than they can obviously

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Don't get me wrong, its a great source of bonus income. Just feels like the stimulus payments (not getting into whether those were appropriate to hand out in this threat) are just going straight back to the wealthy through stupid stock purchases like CHK at $60/share on no news even close to justifying the run up.

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Is there supposed to be a story here? Who was buying CHK?

topher06 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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topher06 said:

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Does anyone else feel bad for those nameless retail guys who buy into fad stocks like Chesapeake only to completely get their lunch eaten? Seems like there is a sizable contingent in America that falls for pump and dump every time.

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No. I enjoy taking their money. I can do better with it than they can obviously

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Don't get me wrong, its a great source of bonus income. Just feels like the stimulus payments (not getting into whether those were appropriate to hand out in this threat) are just going straight back to the wealthy through stupid stock purchases like CHK at $60/share on no news even close to justifying the run up.

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I hear you, but the majority of americans are not jumping on RH and dumping their stimulus checks into a YOLO TSLA play. Many are actually using the check for smart purchases.

Ubitag said:

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What a beating!

Licking wounds and thinking about the asswhooping I will get tomorrow cuz I didn't bail.

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Didn't bail...like a Nancy

I've held AAL over the last couple of weeks. Both Fridays, I sold a covered call expiring day of and hit the right strike to keep the shares. Last week, I sold a 6/5 19c (closed 18.59) and today I sold a 6/12 17c and pocketed the premiums. After this weeks ups and downs, I'm thinking about setting a trailing stop-loss order, but I don't know what to set it at.

Any suggestions?

TriumphForks said:

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I ditched ONTX with 2 minutes to go for a hefty $63 gain. Now I get to doubt myself all weekend.

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I remain convinced that had I not taken a $30 loss by selling too early, the stock would not have rebounded. I'm an idiot, but at least I'm a useful idiot! lol.

claym711 said:

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My focus is primarily intraday and the more the day reveals the higher quality prediction my data can make. Look forward across weekend, not much insight. Macro indicators, the last 2 days are in line with data in late February. Outside of a recession, id be looking for a bottom, but right now I'm expecting a deeper move until we cross above and close above around 3100 but thats a moving target based on each subsequent day we are below. I don't do much long term stuff though, everything is currently geared towards short timeframe trading in futures.

For weekly swing trading, there's a lot that can be derived from tight daily EMAs, and how attached above or below them we are, how many days we remain above or below them, etc. There are enough mean reversion machines and dip buyers that trading to and from macro MAs is a good strategy for swing trading.

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Was some of today's close not just shorts covering? I'm also seeing quite a few indicators than we're still yet to find bottom (3000 feels temporary).

With that being said, Mondays are typically green (as of late). Tuesdays, not so much!

to all that are new or relatively new to this , cash is a position too! I'm still trying to remind myself of this.

In after hours at .57/share (middle of the channel) hoping for a push upward coming soon

zwhag2010 said:

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In after hours at .57/share (middle of the channel) hoping for a push upward coming soon

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buy now. I think we're holding out for $2.50

just me, but I think we will see a rise to 3100 and then another rug pull. I got into some cheap SPY calls for Monday. I will start trying to sell more SPX/NDX somewhere around the 3100 point. I was able to make some good gains by selling when we got to around 3000.

I don't know what's to come but I remember last month at opex I got hosed Tuesday through Thursday. It was vicious

Someone already answered your question pointing to the obvious fact that VIX always settles down over time.

To go into a little bit more detail, VIX is now in backwardation. I.e. near term futures contracts are priced higher than long term ones.

There there are many cool ways in which you can create hedged volatility plays.

As a retail trader now is the only acceptable time to own TVIX/UVXY because when the VIX futures roll, the fund buys the future contract price at a lower price than the near term they are selling. This is an oversimplification, as you have to read their prospectus for their term structure. (BTW yesterday was the quarterly roll date for US indices, part of the reason I expected a volatility surge). Next week is quad witching again.

There are hedgefunds that only trade volatility and when there is a huge amount of money flowing into volatility (July VIX futures) like there has been all of this week, they are usually hedged by shorting July SPX futures.

Also one for your back pocket - one of the guaranteed plays is everytime you have a crazy volatility spike, buy far OTM leap puts on UVXY or TVIX. Their term structure along with contango absolutely shreds them. If I remember correctly you could have opened an August 55/50 UVXY put spread for less than a buck back in March when VIX hit 70. Pretty much guaranteed to be profitable bet if you think about it.

topher06 said:

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Does anyone else feel bad for those nameless retail guys who buy into fad stocks like Chesapeake only to completely get their lunch eaten? Seems like there is a sizable contingent in America that falls for pump and dump every time.

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Position yourself in crypto accordingly.

would have saved me a little cash

BREwmaster said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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just me, but I think we will see a rise to 3100 and then another rug pull. I got into some cheap SPY calls for Monday. I will start trying to sell more SPX/NDX somewhere around the 3100 point. I was able to make some good gains by selling when we got to around 3000.

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You have calls and I have puts!?? what's next?

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Don't be mistaken, I expect this thing to drop to 2400. I just think it will rise first. These long calls I've got are a hedge. If I lost the entire premium because the market limited down, I would be celebrating. I just want something extra on top if I can get away with it.

NRD09 said:

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bailed on my 312 6/15s for 70% overnight. Buying vix calls, this feels like bull trap central

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This worked out really well. Would have worked out even better had i actually bought the vix calls. I gotta get my day trading back. Think i have 2 weeks left

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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zwhag2010 said:

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In after hours at .57/share (middle of the channel) hoping for a push upward coming soon

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buy now. I think we're holding out for $2.50

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Does the target of $2.50 hold regardless of what the markets do in the macro sense? Seems like a lot of people are thinking the end of this week could be a sign of things to come.

aggiedaniel06 said:

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Someone already answered your question pointing to the obvious fact that VIX always settles down over time.

To go into a little bit more detail, VIX is now in backwardation. I.e. near term futures contracts are priced higher than long term ones.

There there are many cool ways in which you can create hedged volatility plays.

As a retail trader now is the only acceptable time to own TVIX/UVXY because when the VIX futures roll, the fund buys the future contract price at a lower price than the near term they are selling. This is an oversimplification, as you have to read their prospectus for their term structure. (BTW yesterday was the quarterly roll date for US indices, part of the reason I expected a volatility surge). Next week is quad witching again.

There are hedgefunds that only trade volatility and when there is a huge amount of money flowing into volatility (July VIX futures) like there has been all of this week, they are usually hedged by shorting July SPX futures.

Also one for your back pocket - one of the guaranteed plays is everytime you have a crazy volatility spike, buy far OTM leap puts on UVXY or TVIX. Their term structure along with contango absolutely shreds them. If I remember correctly you could have opened an August 55/50 UVXY put spread for less than a buck back in March when VIX hit 70. Pretty much guaranteed to be profitable bet if you think about it.

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ooof, then going to be some fireworks for sure next week! big swings in both directions it sounds like.

Brilliant on the OTM leap puts!

The target of 2.50 is long term. This stock doesn't necessarily feel the heat from the overall market the same way. If anything it will give you that .50 accumulation zone OA is talking about. Either way, lots of positive news and not a high short interest % means this is a slow grower.

Every knee shall bow and every tongue shall confess

When did all of you guys join me on the bear train?