donkeykick90 said:

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AgLA06 said:

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one MEEN Ag said:

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The most frustrating part of natural gas is its truly the government, and very dumb liberals, stopping its expansion.

Suspension of gulf coast refining and LNG expansion is just gonna increase flares at the pad. That gas is still coming out of the ground, just a matter of if its going to do useful work or not.

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I hate tinfoil conspiracies, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was part of the plan. Force flaring and then use that as the means to shut down drilling and continue to force "green" energy.

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Not a conspiracy theory, more like strategic planning

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I'm a business strategy / planning minded guy. This is how my mind works.

Gift and a curse.

Comeby! said:

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Operator sells gas to a midstream company or bitcoin mining company. Gas purchase agreement.

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This is the way.

We use the BTC as a capacitor. When midstream curtails we are allowed to send that gas to BTC. When we are not curtailed we send residue to BTC. Our midstream is so unreliable. The cost of the BTC infrastructure and the residue volume we sent paid out within the first 4 months with the oil we were able to produce.

Where is your production?

Got it. Thanks

texpert68 said:

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Where is your production?

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Utah

Same

donkeykick90 said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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one of the biggest issues for Nat Gas is the Permian Basin. the Permian/Delaware guys are price takers on gas. Their biggest issue with gas is not pricing. It's take away, so they can continue producing oil and associated NGLs. Absolute killer for the mainstay Gas companies.

Biden's LNG pause is dumb as hell but has nothing to do with current pricing.

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Gas takeaway is an issue everywhere. So we mine bitcoin with the stranded gas. Win win

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Yeah we got all those power lines going out to the west Texas windmills. Build some gas plants out there and send the power east.

donkeykick90 said:

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Comeby! said:

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Operator sells gas to a midstream company or bitcoin mining company. Gas purchase agreement.

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This is the way.

We use the BTC as a capacitor. When midstream curtails we are allowed to send that gas to BTC. When we are not curtailed we send residue to BTC. Our midstream is so unreliable. The cost of the BTC infrastructure and the residue volume we sent paid out within the first 4 months with the oil we were able to produce.

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I'd be interested to talk to someone about this. Not super convinced on BTC but if it makes money, I wont argue with it. Have a contact that has excess(essentially free) gas but isnt doing anything productive with it.

Furlock Bones said:

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one of the biggest issues for Nat Gas is the Permian Basin. the Permian/Delaware guys are price takers on gas. Their biggest issue with gas is not pricing. It's take away, so they can continue producing oil and associated NGLs. Absolute killer for the mainstay Gas companies.

Biden's LNG pause is dumb as hell but has nothing to do with current pricing.

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Kind of funny to blame an oil-producing basin for issues with natural gas, even as associated gas is increasing.

Haynesville and Marcellus just need to shut down for awhile. Basins that drill for oil aren't going to stop producing AG, so the gas basins might as well wait until natural gas isn't close to worthless.

Dreigh said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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one of the biggest issues for Nat Gas is the Permian Basin. the Permian/Delaware guys are price takers on gas. Their biggest issue with gas is not pricing. It's take away, so they can continue producing oil and associated NGLs. Absolute killer for the mainstay Gas companies.

Biden's LNG pause is dumb as hell but has nothing to do with current pricing.

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Kind of funny to blame an oil-producing basin for issues with natural gas, even as associated gas is increasing.

Haynesville and Marcellus just need to shut down for awhile. Basins that drill for oil aren't going to stop producing AG, so the gas basins might as well wait until natural gas isn't close to worthless.

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It's not blaming. It's just reality.

Speaking of gas in Texas. It's getting absolutely crushed this morning.

Dreigh said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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one of the biggest issues for Nat Gas is the Permian Basin. the Permian/Delaware guys are price takers on gas. Their biggest issue with gas is not pricing. It's take away, so they can continue producing oil and associated NGLs. Absolute killer for the mainstay Gas companies.

Biden's LNG pause is dumb as hell but has nothing to do with current pricing.

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Kind of funny to blame an oil-producing basin for issues with natural gas, even as associated gas is increasing.

Haynesville and Marcellus just need to shut down for awhile. Basins that drill for oil aren't going to stop producing AG, so the gas basins might as well wait until natural gas isn't close to worthless.

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Given the political backdrop of "net zero" and "getting rid of fossil fuels", not sure "wait until it is more valuable" makes all that much sense.

plus Haynesville and Marcellus focused companies can't just shut down production. That means no revenues. I guess they could fire all the employees and try to sell their assets (at a low price) or just give them back to the bank.

Look up GIGA Energy. Good group of Ags that are in this space.

Yep, I can put you in contact with them. Had lunch with them this week.

Furlock Bones said:

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Dreigh said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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one of the biggest issues for Nat Gas is the Permian Basin. the Permian/Delaware guys are price takers on gas. Their biggest issue with gas is not pricing. It's take away, so they can continue producing oil and associated NGLs. Absolute killer for the mainstay Gas companies.

Biden's LNG pause is dumb as hell but has nothing to do with current pricing.

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Kind of funny to blame an oil-producing basin for issues with natural gas, even as associated gas is increasing.

Haynesville and Marcellus just need to shut down for awhile. Basins that drill for oil aren't going to stop producing AG, so the gas basins might as well wait until natural gas isn't close to worthless.

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It's not blaming. It's just reality.

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Poor choice of word(s) on my part, and I agree with you. It is just reality, unfortunate as it may be for certain operators in certain plays.

BiochemAg97 said:

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Dreigh said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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one of the biggest issues for Nat Gas is the Permian Basin. the Permian/Delaware guys are price takers on gas. Their biggest issue with gas is not pricing. It's take away, so they can continue producing oil and associated NGLs. Absolute killer for the mainstay Gas companies.

Biden's LNG pause is dumb as hell but has nothing to do with current pricing.

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Kind of funny to blame an oil-producing basin for issues with natural gas, even as associated gas is increasing.

Haynesville and Marcellus just need to shut down for awhile. Basins that drill for oil aren't going to stop producing AG, so the gas basins might as well wait until natural gas isn't close to worthless.

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Given the political backdrop of "net zero" and "getting rid of fossil fuels", not sure "wait until it is more valuable" makes all that much sense.

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I don't believe "net zero" aspirations from any political party have the power to devalue natural gas, at least not in the next 5-10 years.

Last year's mild winter and El Niño this winter have been far worse for prices than anything done or said politically.

A solid winter in '25/'26 will be as crucial as anything. I hope it's chilly.

Cathedra and Crusoe also do the BTC mining. Rete Browning over at Cathedra has been in it for many years. He's out in Utah, ironically.

Furlock Bones said:

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Speaking of gas in Texas. It's getting absolutely crushed this morning.

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What did HSC close at?

MAROON said:

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plus Haynesville and Marcellus focused companies can't just shut down production. That means no revenues. I guess they could fire all the employees and try to sell their assets (at a low price) or just give them back to the bank.

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Exactly. It's like expecting a farmer to "shut down" for a couple years while diesel is high and corn is low. Let's live in the real world.

MAROON said:

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plus Haynesville and Marcellus focused companies can't just shut down production. That means no revenues. I guess they could fire all the employees and try to sell their assets (at a low price) or just give them back to the bank.

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I do know that neither the Haynesville nor the Marcellus operators can just shut down production, it was an absurd assertion I should have followed with an "/s".

I also do not desire that businesses be shuttered or employees be laid off.

In the face of some harsh, unfavorable externalities (weather, politics, etc.), I imagine gas-focused companies could have some difficult decision to make until the price leaves the basement. I hope they can keep the lights on until then.

Of course, I type this as four gas rigs (two in the Haynesville, two in the Marcellus) have been added this week. Tough to wrap my mind around that one.

Dreigh said:

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BiochemAg97 said:

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Dreigh said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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one of the biggest issues for Nat Gas is the Permian Basin. the Permian/Delaware guys are price takers on gas. Their biggest issue with gas is not pricing. It's take away, so they can continue producing oil and associated NGLs. Absolute killer for the mainstay Gas companies.

Biden's LNG pause is dumb as hell but has nothing to do with current pricing.

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Kind of funny to blame an oil-producing basin for issues with natural gas, even as associated gas is increasing.

Haynesville and Marcellus just need to shut down for awhile. Basins that drill for oil aren't going to stop producing AG, so the gas basins might as well wait until natural gas isn't close to worthless.

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Given the political backdrop of "net zero" and "getting rid of fossil fuels", not sure "wait until it is more valuable" makes all that much sense.

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I don't believe "net zero" aspirations from any political party have the power to devalue natural gas, at least not in the next 5-10 years.

Last year's mild winter and El Niño this winter have been far worse for prices than anything done or said politically.

A solid winter in '25/'26 will be as crucial as anything. I hope it's chilly.

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I agree that the short term fluctuations due to weather have a bigger impact than politics at this point.

From a longer term strategy, the demand should slowly decrease over time as we march towards net zero/carbon free future. The value of the resource in the ground is going to approach zero.

Strategically, we should be exporting as much as we can while it still has value.

Throttling back to wait for higher prices is only useful if the winter next year isn't another mild one.

Boat Shoes said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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Speaking of gas in Texas. It's getting absolutely crushed this morning.

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What did HSC close at?

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Daily average was around 1.40. Didn't see the close.

Everyone is toast at that price. No BE's are below that.

1.42

The backs are still relatively strong so honestly not surprised to still see rig additions.

We gonna drill through the contango again boys. lNG ready.

Dreigh said:

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BiochemAg97 said:

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Dreigh said:

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BiochemAg97 said:

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Dreigh said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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one of the biggest issues for Nat Gas is the Permian Basin. the Permian/Delaware guys are price takers on gas. Their biggest issue with gas is not pricing. It's take away, so they can continue producing oil and associated NGLs. Absolute killer for the mainstay Gas companies.

Biden's LNG pause is dumb as hell but has nothing to do with current pricing.

---

Kind of funny to blame an oil-producing basin for issues with natural gas, even as associated gas is increasing.

Haynesville and Marcellus just need to shut down for awhile. Basins that drill for oil aren't going to stop producing AG, so the gas basins might as well wait until natural gas isn't close to worthless.

---

Given the political backdrop of "net zero" and "getting rid of fossil fuels", not sure "wait until it is more valuable" makes all that much sense.

---

I don't believe "net zero" aspirations from any political party have the power to devalue natural gas, at least not in the next 5-10 years.

Last year's mild winter and El Niño this winter have been far worse for prices than anything done or said politically.

A solid winter in '25/'26 will be as crucial as anything. I hope it's chilly.

---

I agree that the short term fluctuations due to weather have a bigger impact than politics at this point.

From a longer term strategy, the demand should slowly decrease over time as we march towards net zero/carbon free future. The value of the resource in the ground is going to approach zero.

Strategically, we should be exporting as much as we can while it still has value.

Throttling back to wait for higher prices is only useful if the winter next year isn't another mild one.

---

I'm of the opinion that the net zero/carbon free future is a pipe dream, at least in all of our lifetimes (even as pessimistic as I get about energy policy and the future in general).

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I am also skeptical of the carbon free pipe dream. However, governments are going to continue to pour money into green energy which will reduce demand for nat gas.

I was looking at the ERCOT energy mix during the recent cold snap. As the solar came up mid morning, nat gas dropped off, and then as solar went down, nat gas had to pick up the slack. Regardless of the ability to get to carbon free, increased solar will still reduce demand for nat gas.

BiochemAg97 said:

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Dreigh said:

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BiochemAg97 said:

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Dreigh said:

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BiochemAg97 said:

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Dreigh said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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one of the biggest issues for Nat Gas is the Permian Basin. the Permian/Delaware guys are price takers on gas. Their biggest issue with gas is not pricing. It's take away, so they can continue producing oil and associated NGLs. Absolute killer for the mainstay Gas companies.

Biden's LNG pause is dumb as hell but has nothing to do with current pricing.

---

Kind of funny to blame an oil-producing basin for issues with natural gas, even as associated gas is increasing.

Haynesville and Marcellus just need to shut down for awhile. Basins that drill for oil aren't going to stop producing AG, so the gas basins might as well wait until natural gas isn't close to worthless.

---

Given the political backdrop of "net zero" and "getting rid of fossil fuels", not sure "wait until it is more valuable" makes all that much sense.

---

I don't believe "net zero" aspirations from any political party have the power to devalue natural gas, at least not in the next 5-10 years.

Last year's mild winter and El Niño this winter have been far worse for prices than anything done or said politically.

A solid winter in '25/'26 will be as crucial as anything. I hope it's chilly.

---

I agree that the short term fluctuations due to weather have a bigger impact than politics at this point.

From a longer term strategy, the demand should slowly decrease over time as we march towards net zero/carbon free future. The value of the resource in the ground is going to approach zero.

Strategically, we should be exporting as much as we can while it still has value.

Throttling back to wait for higher prices is only useful if the winter next year isn't another mild one.

---

I'm of the opinion that the net zero/carbon free future is a pipe dream, at least in all of our lifetimes (even as pessimistic as I get about energy policy and the future in general).

---

I am also skeptical of the carbon free pipe dream. However, governments are going to continue to pour money into green energy which will reduce demand for nat gas.

I was looking at the ERCOT energy mix during the recent cold snap. As the solar came up mid morning, nat gas dropped off, and then as solar went down, nat gas had to pick up the slack. Regardless of the ability to get to carbon free, increased solar will still reduce demand for nat gas.

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The energy mix will certainly shift in the L48, but China, India, and a massive number of people in other developing nations will be modernizing their energy infrastructure in the coming years, and beyond near-term political posturing, my bet is on the US being a major player in rising to meet those demands. Time will tell.

Not if shipping accidents keep happening. And definitely not if we stop caring, or even gasp, start ****ing around with shipping ourselves.

tremble said:

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Not if shipping accidents keep happening. And definitely not if we stop caring, or even gasp, start ****ing around with shipping ourselves.

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There is no way Americans ship lng globally because UD merchant mariners command way too high of a salary amd ships cost way too much to build here.