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Bibendum 86
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Sporty Spice said:

How do hedge prices usually compare to the strip? For example, if today's strip is showing $70/bbl next year, would I be able to execute a hedge today at $70/bbl with maybe a slight discount for 2024?
You'd need to buy puts at $70 for NYMEX crude and would pay to do so. The basic hedge for producers is to pick a price floor that preserves your economics, price up the cost of that put and then sell a call option at something like $90 to offset the cost of the put - costless collar.

The problem is that there's a skew between the floor set by the put and the ceiling set by the call. It's not symmetric. And the most cost efficient way to set a collar is to do it financially, which leaves the producer at risk for locational basis, quality basis and more importantly index premium to swap financial barrels for physical barrels. And there are collateral costs, transaction costs. The banks always set up that heads they win, tails you lose.
AgLA06
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Bibendum 86 said:

Sporty Spice said:

How do hedge prices usually compare to the strip? For example, if today's strip is showing $70/bbl next year, would I be able to execute a hedge today at $70/bbl with maybe a slight discount for 2024?
You'd need to buy puts at $70 for NYMEX crude and would pay to do so. The basic hedge for producers is to pick a price floor that preserves your economics, price up the cost of that put and then sell a call option at something like $90 to offset the cost of the put - costless collar.

The problem is that there's a skew between the floor set by the put and the ceiling set by the call. It's not symmetric. And the most cost efficient way to set a collar is to do it financially, which leaves the producer at risk for locational basis, quality basis and more importantly index premium to swap financial barrels for physical barrels. And there are collateral costs, transaction costs. The banks always set up that heads they win, tails you lose.
That's a really poetic way to say it a lot of work and cost to maybe work, sometimes....
Birdbear
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Just like insurance, you don't really plan to come out on top but it's nice to have in case you need it
nosoupforyou
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Sheesh now Callon is on the.block?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/permian-explorer-callon-mulls-options-161652172.html
Cyp0111
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Tokyo Gas just announced purchase of Rockcliff for $2.7bln

Now someone needs to take out Aethon and drop on of those 10 rigs
mts6175
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nosoupforyou said:

Sheesh now Callon is on the.block?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/permian-explorer-callon-mulls-options-161652172.html

When hasn't Callon been on the block?
TTUArmy
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Gordo14
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The vast majority of our petroleum reserves are sour.
techno-ag
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Gordo14 said:

The vast majority of our petroleum reserves were sour.
FIFY.
aggiesundevil4
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Comeby!
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Yes this is old news.
BiochemAg97
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Answer seems pretty obvious.

1) release was to lower gasoline prices
2) refineries need heavy, we have plenty of light that we are exporting
3) need to release heavy to add to refinery feed stock rather than light that would just add to exports.



Also, I'm pretty sure it is a light/heavy issue and not a sweet/sour issue. While US refineries are set up to remove the sulfur from the sour feed stock, I don't think running a sweeter blend is going to break things. Just wasteful, because you still have the desulfurization going but don't need it as much. But maybe some of the refinery guys can comment.
Gordo14
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techno-ag said:

Gordo14 said:

The vast majority of our petroleum reserves were sour.
FIFY.


I mean I know you're joking. It's still ~half full. Maybe after we get outside of weird election politics they'll begin filling it back up. If they did it would be a phenomenal trade.
DripAG08
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nosoupforyou said:

Sheesh now Callon is on the.block?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/permian-explorer-callon-mulls-options-161652172.html


Everyone is on the block. If I was CEO of a small - mid cap E&P I'd be pushing like hell to sell while the getting is good right now!
Gig-Em2003
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DripAG08 said:

nosoupforyou said:

Sheesh now Callon is on the.block?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/permian-explorer-callon-mulls-options-161652172.html


Everyone is on the block. If I was CEO of a small - mid cap E&P I'd be pushing like hell to sell while the getting is good right now!


For the most part though the exact opposite is happening and those SMID CEOs don't want to lose their jobs so they're holding on for dear life. Not many seats left in musical chairs anymore.
Owen Kellogg
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DripAG08 said:

nosoupforyou said:

Sheesh now Callon is on the.block?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/permian-explorer-callon-mulls-options-161652172.html


Everyone is on the block. If I was CEO of a small - mid cap E&P I'd be pushing like hell to sell while the getting is good right now!


Most CEOs don't want to sell despite the payout IMO. They like working (the drive, the power, etc.) more than a cash payment. And their salaries are dang good. And most realize there's not another CEO gig lined up for them.
Owen Kellogg
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Sanchez is back in the game!

Curious anyone's thoughts on this business model. Basically you pay up front for a portion of the P&A liability. Then they will cover the actual cost when it happens. They are branding it like insurance.

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/a-shale-oil-ceos-second-act-going-green-5b8cdd7d?st=rw3myqtatnavntm&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Comeby!
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He started this a few years ago. It's a financial instrument only available to newly drilled wells. You basically pay a premium monthly or annually from spud to P&A. Who knows if they'll be around when it's time to P&A. I personally don't know an operator that's doing this.
Joseph Parrish
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Sanchez was pretty damn careless before. I wouldn't trust him again.
reineraggie09
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Bankrupt a third gen business. That had to hurt.
Cyp0111
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Sanchez crime family
Pasquale Liucci
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The limited insight I have is not super favorable. Don't know if it's a bad apple situation or an apple doesn't fall too far situation but I know of one family member who is very much a bad person.
LRHF
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Pasquale Liucci said:

The limited insight I have is not super favorable. Don't know if it's a bad apple situation or an apple doesn't fall too far situation but I know of one family member who is very much a bad person.


Ran off a bunch of straight up thieves (2013/ 14 timeframe) that immediately ended up at Sanchez…

Cyp0111
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There are people you avoid in Business regardless of opportunity. Those guys on the list/near top
Gig-Em2003
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Run, don't walk, from anything that family touches.
Marsh
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Cyp0111 said:

Tokyo Gas just announced purchase of Rockcliff for $2.7bln

Now someone needs to take out Aethon and drop on of those 10 rigs



Were there advisors on either side? I know there have been multiple on either side over the last 3 years but just curious if any advisor actually made money between these two finally finalizing a deal.
donkeykick90
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Cyp0111 said:

Sanchez crime family

More like a Scamchez. All they do is wander around the tunnels
Comeby!
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They didn't used to be like that. I interned for them in the 90's when T3 was an intern running around the place.
AgLA06
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aggiesundevil4
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SpreadsheetAg
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Wow
PeekingDuck
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Good job, Manchin.
Fredd
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Angola leaving OPEC. It will be interesting to watch what the Saudi's do.
nu awlins ag
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Fredd said:

Angola leaving OPEC. It will be interesting to watch what the Saudi's do.


Warlords need money.
Cyp0111
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Angola is a nothing
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