Houston..we have a problem....

7,434,267 Views | 28852 Replies | Last: 6 hrs ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
MavsAg
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htxag09 said:

MavsAg said:

Welp. My primary customer (Permian E&P) just told me they are dropping from 4 to 2 fleets. Imagine this is just the beginning.
Public or private E&P?
Public. Both crews will be dropped when they finish their current pad.
htxag09
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I'm at a public E&P and we've had hhp providers call looking for work at a 30%+ discount of what they were quoting us in November/December. Haven't dropped any rigs or crews, no plans to at the moment
Cyp0111
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So part of the problem
htxag09
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Cyp0111 said:

So part of the problem

Are you saying the E&P I'm at is part of the problem for not dropping rigs?

Or the hhp provider calling us with lower rates is the problem?
thepartygoat
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Small private E&P, going from 3 rigs down to 1 here in the next quarter. Built up a nice inventory of DUCs, if only our completions group could hit a steady consistent pace....
LRHF
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thepartygoat said:

Small private E&P, going from 3 rigs down to 1 here in the next quarter. Built up a nice inventory of DUCs, if only our completions group could hit a steady consistent pace....


If prices would be steady up and to the right, then I bet yer completions group could find some stability!
Cyp0111
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HHP, they pushed the envelope. Now they're gonna got the rug pulled, again.
Cyp0111
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Are you going to complete or drop rigs and defer additional completions
htxag09
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AG
gigem1223
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Cyp0111 said:

HHP, they pushed the envelope. Now they're gonna got the rug pulled, again.


What are you referring to when you say push the envelope? Pricing?
Fredd
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Cyp0111 said:

HHP, they pushed the envelope. Now they're gonna got the rug pulled, again.


Now do casing
Cyp0111
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pushed the envelope holding the gun to producers heads through the last cycle, putting out terrible equipment and even worse crews. It's a generalization but not far off from most experiences.
AgLA06
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I know O&G gas loves abbreviations and acronyms more than the military, but could we maybe try to take an extra second or two and spell things out (like company names) so some of us with less experience in that specific segment aren't guessing?
BrokeAssAggie
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hhp = Hydraulic Horse Power
AgLA06
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Thanks.
one MEEN Ag
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AgLA06 said:

I know O&G gas loves abbreviations and acronyms more than the military, but could we maybe try to take an extra second or two and spell things out (like company names) so some of us with less experience in that specific segment aren't guessing?
Cyp is stating that the frac service industry as a whole is responsible for this (hydraulic horsepower is a term for measuring fracing capability). As fracing crews/manufacturers of frac fleets oversaturated north america land in 2014 with fracing capabilities at rock bottom prices. And there has been a rebound post covid, especially post ukraine war that also got smoked with a warm winter/freeport shutdown.

Cyp's answer to this, is that fracing companies stop doing what their whole business model depends on - raising debt, manufacturing equipment, and running crews to chase a profit.

He is acting like the last link in a whole chain of capitalists companies trying to make money in oil and gas is responsible for overproduction and low oil prices.

If only frac companies would just fall on their sword so Cyp's operations could produce oil while no one else brings on more oil. No one rain drop thinks they are responsible for the storm.
MAROON
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I'm fairness I think he's also stated that those not dropping rigs are part of the problem.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
Cyp0111
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oh, im not an operator. To be clear, operators generally are terrible allocators unless boards/shareholders are all over them.

Goes with the territory with a depleting asset I guess.
one MEEN Ag
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Cyp0111 said:

oh, im not an operator. To be clear, operators generally are terrible allocators unless boards/shareholders are all over them.

Goes with the territory with a depleting asset I guess.
I believe from your posting history you're in M&A. Of course the only answer out of this is to roll up all of these companies into a consolidated few.

Cyp0111
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I think some of this is a nature of the beast. Maybe CHK should go back to vertically integrating operations, lol.
Boat Shoes
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If you want a look at where this is headed, talk to the casing providers. They're the first to know when rigs are getting dropped, typically before even the rig contractor,as most people order casing several months in advance. Ask them which direction Q2 and Q3 pipe volumes are going. Hint, it's down. Significantly.
Cyp0111
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my dad is in that world. had a convo with him this weekend, lookout below.
atmtws
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Explosion at INEOS plant in Pasadena: Trans-star caught the explosion but I cant find it. Looked like a tanker trailer explodes, shoots off about 100 yards away, then another truck/trailer was burning. T&Ps for everyone.

https://abc13.com/pasadena-plant-fire-beltway-large-flames-seen-sh-225-what-is-burning-in/12991302/
CaptnCarl
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Very glad I bought my MDEA a few months ago.
Pasquale Liucci
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I wasn't going to reply to him yesterday but you are correct. The cynicism seems pretty one sided from him
BrokeAssAggie
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We getting below $65 today?
MavsAg
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AG
Cyp0111
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I think we hold in the current range unless the machines go risk off later this am.

The only way out of this is the physical side leading with draws on crude and products.

With that, I'm hearing more and more of people laying down rigs when first available under their contracts.
Dies Irae
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Rig count +4 this week.
DripAG08
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Gas folks determined to see $1.50 HHUB.....
techno-ag
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AustinAg008 said:

Gas folks determined to see $1.50 HHUB.....
Yup. BOIL sub $4 today. They're giving that gas away.
Cyp0111
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Natty is a cruel mistress. The Haynesville guys need to start dropping. Looking your way Aethon....
CheladaAg
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Wonder if there is enough storage capacity in SC region to handle these record daily gas production rates as we get into injection season. I'm reading we are close to topping off in certain areas of the region. Unusual supply situation and what it will come of it on pricing very soon.
Cyp0111
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You will see prices go negative on diffs in areas that need economic shut ins.
DripAG08
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I'd have to imagine WAHA has gone close to $0 today?
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