Houston..we have a problem....

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BiochemAg97
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In reply to reineraggie09 • 5:18p, 3/15/23
AG
reineraggie09 said:
Probably time to cash out of XOM. Been great for me the past year plus


Soon to be a great time for the majors to do all those stock buybacks.
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Dies Irae
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5:23p, 3/15/23
Anybody else think we will see a huge slew of rig lay downs with the price fall? I know of 3 contractors who had to up their day rate recently and had to stack a few rigs, I can't help but think this accelerates it.
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htxag09
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In reply to Dies Irae • 5:32p, 3/15/23
AG
Dies Irae said:
Anybody else think we will see a huge slew of rig lay downs with the price fall? I know of 3 contractors who had to up their day rate recently and had to stack a few rigs, I can't help but think this accelerates it.

Huge slew? Doubt it. Lots of large, public E&P's have committed agreements. This dip wouldn't be worth breaking contracts. Now, will people drop pad to pad rigs? Sure. Just don't think it'll be a substantially large number.
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Dies Irae
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In reply to htxag09 • 5:41p, 3/15/23
Maybe I need to quantify huge, I'm talking triple digit rig losses over the next quarter, dropping back to the high 500's or low 600's, not due to canceled contracts, but due to lack of new activity
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MAROON
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In reply to Dies Irae • 7:19p, 3/15/23
AG
I'll say 40 rigs drop between now and the end of 2Q
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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Comeby!
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7:23p, 3/15/23
AG
People should be buying reserves right now instead of drilling them.
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wessimo
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9:10p, 3/15/23
AG
Any news on SPR getting re-filled? I thought $79 was the magic number.
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Dreigh
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In reply to MAROON • 4:21p, 3/16/23
MAROON said:
I'll say 40 rigs drop between now and the end of 2Q


In the US, Texas, or the Permian?
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MAROON
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In reply to Dreigh • 5:21p, 3/16/23
AG
US
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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Cyp0111
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In reply to MAROON • 5:23p, 3/16/23
I do not think that is too far off. The gas guys were going to continue dropping over the coming 2-3 months and exepect the crude guys to drop as well.

The only way out of this is a compelling S/D story and we're not there yet.
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MAROON
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12:51p, 3/17/23
AG
just saw a report that we added 9 gas rigs last week and laid down one oil rig. Put me in the group that doesn't understand that type of movement.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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Sporty Spice
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In reply to MAROON • 12:55p, 3/17/23
AG
Give it time. Rig contracts.
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Dreigh
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In reply to MAROON • 5:00p, 3/19/23
MAROON said:
just saw a report that we added 9 gas rigs last week and laid down one oil rig. Put me in the group that doesn't understand that type of movement.


9 gas rigs, you say?

Some people really do hate money.
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ThreeFive
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In reply to MAROON • 8:50p, 3/19/23
AG
I don't buy this. Can you link the report?
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MAROON
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In reply to ThreeFive • 9:38p, 3/19/23
AG

What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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Boat Shoes
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In reply to ThreeFive • 9:39p, 3/19/23
AG
ThreeFive said:
I don't buy this. Can you link the report?


https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/static-files/ae026d57-e0ed-4613-89c2-068c08fe6aa4
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ThreeFive
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In reply to MAROON • 10:05p, 3/19/23
AG
Thanks. Has to be spudder rigs or rig moves falling off then coming back on. If that number holds in over the next few weeks, I'd be shocked.
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jaggiemaggie
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11:06a, 3/20/23
AG
Anyone here work or deal software companies that provide AI/ML, post job report optimization, fleet management and supply chain automation? Doing some studies on software companies that provide such services and any insight would be appreciated.
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CheladaAg
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12:57p, 3/20/23
AG
What's the over/under Natgas goes under $2? Didn't think it would get there again.
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Cyp0111
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In reply to CheladaAg • 1:41p, 3/20/23
I think natural gas is trying to tell people to drop rigs quickly.

I think that the recent weakness in crude and general macro may also help natural gas the second half of the year as the gassier oil plays drop rigs.

Imo- deploying capital into the drill bit right now does not make sense.
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CheladaAg
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In reply to Cyp0111 • 1:59p, 3/20/23
AG
Cyp0111 said:
I think natural gas is trying to tell people to drop rigs quickly.

I think that the recent weakness in crude and general macro may also help natural gas the second half of the year as the gassier oil plays drop rigs.

Imo- deploying capital into the drill bit right now does not make sense.


Agreed on all points. Hard to believe US rig count is netting positive last week, not to mention gas areas. Hope that isn't true. Everyone that I know that warm/cold stacked at the end of last year and earlier this year we're paying attention to storage levels and s/d projections. Waiting for it to normalize.
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Cyp0111
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In reply to CheladaAg • 2:00p, 3/20/23
I doubt that number is much of anything. From conversations Ive been having, i think we see an acceleration into early summer.
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deadbq03
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2:25p, 3/20/23
AG
Looking at the report, I think the gas numbers mean very little.

If these gas rigs were horizontals in Marcellus/Utica or Haynesville that'd be impressive (and surprising), but instead, it's cheap, low production verticals and directionals in TX, NM, and OK.
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MavsAg
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10:38a, 3/21/23
AG
Welp. My primary customer (Permian E&P) just told me they are dropping from 4 to 2 fleets. Imagine this is just the beginning.
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Cyp0111
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In reply to MavsAg • 11:00a, 3/21/23
Yes- i think we see a material pullback. No one is compensated to drill into uncertainty.
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topher06
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In reply to MavsAg • 11:33a, 3/21/23
This is two frac fleets?
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MavsAg
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In reply to topher06 • 11:33a, 3/21/23
AG
Yep
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topher06
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In reply to MavsAg • 11:38a, 3/21/23
nm
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Cyp0111
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1:03p, 3/21/23
Wil Vanloh from Quantum said we could see a 20% drop in activity if pricing remains at these levels.

I think it will be higher but what do I know. He has better info.
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topher06
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In reply to Cyp0111 • 1:44p, 3/21/23
Are you at the Piper thing?
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Cyp0111
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In reply to topher06 • 1:44p, 3/21/23
I am not.
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Boat Shoes
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In reply to Cyp0111 • 1:48p, 3/21/23
AG
I'd like to be.
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htxag09
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In reply to MavsAg • 1:53p, 3/21/23
AG
MavsAg said:
Welp. My primary customer (Permian E&P) just told me they are dropping from 4 to 2 fleets. Imagine this is just the beginning.
Public or private E&P?
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Sporty Spice
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In reply to MavsAg • 2:34p, 3/21/23
AG
Immediate drop or will it happen later this year?
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Cyp0111
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In reply to Sporty Spice • 2:35p, 3/21/23
Almost everyone I've talked to said they will drop asap without heavy penalties.
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