Houston..we have a problem....

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one MEEN Ag
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5:59p, 2/26/23
AG
Operators dissonance is real. They see all the challenges with the economy and then throw their hands up when OFS goes, 'we can't get material or people and tools are scarce or broken because y'all are running them harder than a rental car in Vegas.'

OFS business separation from operators is a fundamental decision by operators to try to cut costs and reduce liabilities. But management teams are shocked that they still are exposed to those costs.
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htxag09
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7:46p, 2/26/23
AG
Didn't intend a operator vs service company argument. I spent the first 10+ years of my career on the service side. Their are good service companies and ****ty operators. And vice versa.

Simply discussing the "we'll lay down equipment before lowering rates" headlines.
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Pasquale Liucci
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In reply to htxag09 • 10:12p, 2/26/23
AG
Do you not believe they'll actually set floors on prices they'll work for?

I know of a red colored service company who is contemplating walking away from a bunch of hot hole DD/MWD work right now because even at current prices they can't make money. Ironically it's the same work another red colored OFS walked away from about three years ago.
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htxag09
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In reply to Pasquale Liucci • 10:48p, 2/26/23
AG
Captain Charles Vane said:
Do you not believe they'll actually set floors on prices they'll work for?

I know of a red colored service company who is contemplating walking away from a bunch of hot hole DD/MWD work right now because even at current prices they can't make money. Ironically it's the same work another red colored OFS walked away from about three years ago.

Yes they'll set floors. And yes they should. I never said that.

I'm saying the floor being 2022 rate highs is questionable.
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Comeby!
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11:52p, 2/26/23
AG
Big red will take a loss on a job to capture market share in a declining price environment. They've done this cycle after cycle, each time squeezing out the smaller service companies who can't hold the rope that long. Past results not indicative of future performance but it's what they've done. Their CEO is an Ag who probably watches this thread.
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to Comeby! • 9:12a, 2/27/23
AG
Comeby! said:
Big red will take a loss on a job to capture market share in a declining price environment. They've done this cycle after cycle, each time squeezing out the smaller service companies who can't hold the rope that long. Past results not indicative of future performance but it's what they've done. Their CEO is an Ag who probably watches this thread.
The tough part is that you can't ever kill off small OFS companies.

Sure the small DD shop goes bankrupt, the owner gets divorced again, and the raptor get sold, but eventually those guys go find some seed money, go buy an RSS and a power section and an MWD rental, slap their name on it, and they're back in business.

Tough to carry significant overhead at big OFS when your competition can be formed in a bar on a friday and running their first job the following wednesday.

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Sea Speed
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In reply to Comeby! • 9:37a, 2/27/23
AG
I've often wondered about the folks that monitor this board/thread. There has to be some pretty big time folks that lurk and/or post occasionally. Pretty cool imo.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Sea Speed • 10:47a, 2/27/23
AG
Comeby would be one of the guys to have the best idea.

From some conversations I've heard you'd be amazed.
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Dill-Ag13
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In reply to Comeby! • 1:19p, 2/27/23
AG
Comeby! is Jeff Miller. Spreadsheet updated.
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aggiesundevil4
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In reply to Dill-Ag13 • 1:21p, 2/27/23
LeveredAg
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8:32p, 2/27/23
AG
https://t.co/jrKRLOWByo
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rak1693
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In reply to Dill-Ag13 • 8:58p, 2/27/23
AG
Dill-Ag13 said:
Comeby! is Jeff Miller. Spreadsheet updated.

I just want to know how Comeby! went from riding bulls at McNeese to CEO of big red? Must be a cool story. I got to meet him once in my time with big red
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Comeby!
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9:24p, 2/27/23
AG
For the record, I'm not Jeff Miller. I do know him and he's a stand up Ag. Also, he isn't the only Ag by that name in high places in our industry.
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rak1693
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In reply to Comeby! • 9:44p, 2/27/23
AG
There's another Jeff Miller that's an Ag and in high places in the industry?
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gigem1223
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In reply to rak1693 • 9:57p, 2/27/23
Vortus Co-founder
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GarlandAg2012
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In reply to gigem1223 • 10:29p, 2/27/23
AG
They have another partner who is an Aggie as well.
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Comeby!
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10:54p, 2/27/23
AG
Bingo
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Joseph Parrish
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In reply to Comeby! • 11:04p, 2/27/23
AG
Comeby! said:
Bingo



This movie has ruined that word for me. Always have to say it like this now.

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jetch17
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6:32a, 2/28/23
AG
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/canadas-baytex-energy-nears-25-bln-deal-us-peer-ranger-oil-sources-2023-02-28/
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Ag CPA
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6:33a, 2/28/23
AG
Baytex buying Ranger in the EF.

ETA: crap, a minute too late.
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Cyp0111
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3:58p, 2/28/23
Riley buying a portco of Cibolo
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Charlie Murphy
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In reply to one MEEN Ag • 10:20a, 3/7/23
one MEEN Ag said:
Boat Shoes said:
Charlie Murphy said:
Time to re-do those Electric plans? I got smoked on the last one.


I was having the same thought. Have the low natural gas prices trickled through to the electricity rates yet? Or is there some lag time?
My take is that the average texagger suburban home follows this general path. Total yearly consumption of 27,000 kwh. If you got stuck with 16 cents/kwh thats $4320 a year in electricity costs. Ouch. Renewing right now to 12 cents/kwh is $3240. Thats a $1080 in savings. Thats an easy take even with a $200+ cancellation fee.

Every cent the price moves down would net the average texagger $270 a year.

I think the prices are going to go down to 11-10 cents a kwh all in. We're not ever going back to the 6-7cent days with the liability that wind/solar and the ERCOT price spiking model creates for our grid.

Maybe give it a month or so. I checked a few weeks ago and the best price was 12.6c/kwh. Its already down to 12 now.

I use www.texaspowerguide.com to buy the best plan. Its like a DIY energy ogre. Only costs $10 to reveal the best plan.
Have you looked recently?
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to Charlie Murphy • 11:07a, 3/7/23
AG
Thanks for the shoutout. I had not checked recently. I did renew at 12.0 cents down from 16. I'll probably wait some more and see this go down to 10 cents and then eat the cancellation fee again.
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Charlie Murphy
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11:41a, 3/7/23
I'm seeing 10.7 this morning based off of 2000 kwh and 12 months....
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to Charlie Murphy • 2:15p, 3/7/23
AG
Charlie Murphy said:
I'm seeing 10.7 this morning based off of 2000 kwh and 12 months....
Can we go lower to 10.0?
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DripAG08
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2:23p, 3/7/23
AG
When is PXD just going to buy FANG? Really need this happen sooner rather than later.
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txaggie_08
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In reply to DripAG08 • 2:36p, 3/7/23
AG
Quote:
When is PXD just going to buy FANG? Really need this happen sooner rather than later.

Second time you've posted this in 2 weeks. Why do you need it to happen…?
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Maverick06
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In reply to txaggie_08 • 3:00p, 3/7/23
AG
Interested in this as well. M&A sucks for both sides!
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Ag CPA
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In reply to txaggie_08 • 3:26p, 3/7/23
AG
txaggie_08 said:
Quote:
When is PXD just going to buy FANG? Really need this happen sooner rather than later.

Second time you've posted this in 2 weeks. Why do you need it to happen…?
Guessing he has some FANG calls that expire soon.
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CaptnCarl
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4:39p, 3/7/23
AG
I'm hearing rumors of Exxon buying Pioneer.

Pioneer buying FANG would also not surprise me.
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GarlandAg2012
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In reply to CaptnCarl • 4:44p, 3/7/23
AG
CaptnCarl said:
I'm hearing rumors of Exxon buying Pioneer.

Pioneer buying FANG would also not surprise me.


Exxon buying PXD rumors have persisted since I worked there from 2013-2017, and probably well before that. I'll believe it when I see it.
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Maverick06
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In reply to GarlandAg2012 • 5:00p, 3/7/23
AG
The rumor bounces from Exxon to Chevron in a consistent cycle.
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Comeby!
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In reply to Maverick06 • 5:30p, 3/7/23
AG
We joked about this too. For years the rumor Exxon would buy is at XTO….then they did. So I wouldn't count it out.
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DripAG08
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In reply to Ag CPA • 6:18p, 3/7/23
AG
Ag CPA said:
txaggie_08 said:
Quote:
When is PXD just going to buy FANG? Really need this happen sooner rather than later.

Second time you've posted this in 2 weeks. Why do you need it to happen…?
Guessing he has some FANG calls that expire soon.


Indeed
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techno-ag
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In reply to GarlandAg2012 • 6:39p, 3/7/23
AG
GarlandAg2012 said:
CaptnCarl said:
I'm hearing rumors of Exxon buying Pioneer.

Pioneer buying FANG would also not surprise me.


Exxon buying PXD rumors have persisted since I worked there from 2013-2017, and probably well before that. I'll believe it when I see it.
Biden Administration seems to try and squash just about all mergers these days, even if the rumour is true.
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