Those were the two I was thinking about. With realized prices and D&C, I do not see that papering or if it does, you're gonna run yourself into a liquidity cliff with current ratio.

ThreeFive said:

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With gas prices heading where they are, you'll start to see a drop soon. Especially in the gas/condensate areas. Really interested to see what Comstock and Aethon do in Robertson/Leon area. Imagine they have some wells to put down within the next two years before acreage expirations. $25MM D&C....

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$25MM D&C!?!?

Need some monster EUR's on those to make that work. That's rivaling some of the Chalk disasters I've seen in Louisiana these past few years.

There is almost no appetite for someone in this environment to fund capex in excess of cash flow, or cut dividend to fund growth. The problem is most projections did not have gas with a low 3 handle this winter and now you're going to have to make the call to lay down rigs or get creative financially.

You also have the private guys that were scaling that now have to stay within multiples the publics will buy at

I've seen some $16-18MM AFEs.

Stuff doesnt paper and more importantly, will crush near term liquidity. I bet you start seeing a bunch of guys start to get close on current ratios if they have their revolvers meaningful drawn. Just in time for spring bbr.

Comeby! said:

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Agree with cyp on this one. Yes, some may be able to get PDP PV10 but few and far between. A significant amount of assets were on the market in 2022 (to try to take advantage of strip pricing) and yet a very small percentage actually got done because most bids were PDP pv15-30.

Zero offense meant to Detring - they may be able to get you pdp PV10 - but it is way more dependent on your asset quality and the buyers universe for what you are selling than anything they are doing. That slide is advertising for their services, not reality.

Heard a rumor that Matador just bought Ameredev.

Didn't Ameredev merge with Advance, who Matador already announced they're acquiring?

Perhaps im just late on news.

Ameredev managed by Advance team. Smashco a while back.

Did they buy the Ameredev stuff too though? Looks like the acreage they got was just the Advance stuff unless I'm seeing something wrong.

Good question I'm not sure. I just assumed so but maybe they ended selling them in two separate transactions.

Anyone hearing that Continental is picking up Patriot?

Correct. Ameredev was contract operating the Advance assets after the CEO passed away I believe.

txaggie_08 said:

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Anyone hearing that Continental is picking up Patriot?

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VTX

txaggie_08 said:

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Anyone hearing that Continental is picking up Patriot?

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The old ATX Energy Partners guys bought it.

Is Patriot the operator that was bordering Chevron's acreage (formerly Noble and CWE before that) there in the southern part of Reeves County?

MavsAg said:

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Did they buy the Ameredev stuff too though? Looks like the acreage they got was just the Advance stuff unless I'm seeing something wrong.

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Yes, Matador got Advance properties only.

Yes.

It's crazy

1. Freeport LNG still being shut down (politically driven)
2. The El Paso line shut down or whatever is happening blocking a decent amount of offtake from the Permian

But that doesn't seem to explain it really. Must just be a warmer winter.

topher06 said:

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1. Freeport LNG still being shut down (politically driven)
2. The El Paso line shut down or whatever is happening blocking a decent amount of offtake from the Permian

But that doesn't seem to explain it really. Must just be a warmer winter.

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Too much gas. And warm winter. Other than weather no real relief valves until late '24 when we get more LNG export capacity.

Haynesville will have to slow down. Permian won't so you'll have too much associated gas flowing to gulf. Though pipeline constraints are real out there too.

Weather still matters, warm Europe winter big culprit here.

Freeport will be running wide open next week, I'm told. Rystad report not accurate

Boy Named Sue said:

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Freeport will be running wide open next week, I'm told. Rystad report not accurate

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Even then 2 BCF/D isn't going to support prices here. We are producing 100 BCF/D so need a significant amount of LNG capacity to open up as well as a massive slowdown in East Tx and PA to see any real change in price.

Gig-Em2003 said:

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topher06 said:

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1. Freeport LNG still being shut down (politically driven)
2. The El Paso line shut down or whatever is happening blocking a decent amount of offtake from the Permian

But that doesn't seem to explain it really. Must just be a warmer winter.

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Too much gas. And warm winter. Other than weather no real relief valves until late '24 when we get more LNG export capacity.

Haynesville will have to slow down. Permian won't so you'll have too much associated gas flowing to gulf. Though pipeline constraints are real out there too.

Weather still matters, warm Europe winter big culprit here.

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This is correct and the rest of the winter won't matter much, although it could protect significant downside. Haynesville has to slow and increased capex will help, but there's going to be a ~6 month lag before rigs really start to drop and then another ~6 months before you see supply slow. 2023 could easily see sub $2 gas. Just go model storage numbers and you'll see we can realistically have at/near 4 TCF by late 2023.

ThreeFive said:

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Gig-Em2003 said:

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topher06 said:

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1. Freeport LNG still being shut down (politically driven)
2. The El Paso line shut down or whatever is happening blocking a decent amount of offtake from the Permian

But that doesn't seem to explain it really. Must just be a warmer winter.

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Too much gas. And warm winter. Other than weather no real relief valves until late '24 when we get more LNG export capacity.

Haynesville will have to slow down. Permian won't so you'll have too much associated gas flowing to gulf. Though pipeline constraints are real out there too.

Weather still matters, warm Europe winter big culprit here.

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This is correct and the rest of the winter won't matter much, although it could protect significant downside. Haynesville has to slow and increased capex will help, but there's going to be a ~6 month lag before rigs really start to drop and then another ~6 months before you see supply slow. 2023 could easily see sub $2 gas. Just go model storage numbers and you'll see we can realistically have at/near 4 TCF by late 2023.

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My very young OFS company is looking to expand and we are very seriously looking at the Haynesville. Before this drop I was thinking the Haynesville would be a relatively safe bet with all the LNG exports. Do y'all think these low prices will have a significant impact on completions in 2024?

topher06 said:

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1. Freeport LNG still being shut down (politically driven)
2. The El Paso line shut down or whatever is happening blocking a decent amount of offtake from the Permian

But that doesn't seem to explain it really. Must just be a warmer winter.

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1 & (mainly) 2 have been sources of recent perm bullishness if anything since both are seemingly on the verge of being back online relatively soon. 2 is likely weeks away. As was stated before, today's bloodbath was almost entirely weather driven. Models have neutered this latest cold event and that could possibly be the final chapter for this winter.

I think you'll see crews let go, but I don't think it will be a dramatic drop on the completions side unless we have sustained sub $2.50 prices. I know the Haynesville pretty well if you want to leave contact info. Happy to share my opinion.

Absolutely. Appreciate you offering to help out. Email me and we can

You're below $2.5 cash price with diffs…