Now capital, volatility not helping
Houston..we have a problem....
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Last: 7 hrs ago by Bibendum 86
I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but I find it so disgusting that politicians who have made a political career off of limiting oil ans gas production in the US are now upset that OPEC is limiting oil and gas production.
Until ESG capitulates on the issue of energy security (and thus capital returns) I don't see a real resolution to high energy prices. People don't seem to understand how the 2010s were a period of energy excess (driven by the shale boom), which gave people the luxury to pretend the thing they cared most about was a negligible amount of carbon emissions. Now that energy security is threatened, we will all suffer until that ideology is dead. At least owning/working for energy companies - particularly oil and gas companies - gives us a hedge as to what will be a long 5-10 years of high oil prices, in my opinion. The scary thing is the collapse of the Russian state is no longer off the table, and that could further disrupt energy flows across the globe. And if China drops it's zero covid policy after CCP elections... It's hard to see energy prices coming down without a massive increase in capex here in the US. OPEC is already unable to meet their targets. I'm not calling for sustained $300 oil or anything, just that any drop in price could be met with induced demand for a while.
OPEC's decision to cutback on production is a blatant attempt to increase gas prices at the pump that cannot stand. We must end OPEC's illegal price-fixing cartel, eliminate military assistance to Saudi Arabia, and move aggressively to renewable energy.
— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) October 5, 2022
Until ESG capitulates on the issue of energy security (and thus capital returns) I don't see a real resolution to high energy prices. People don't seem to understand how the 2010s were a period of energy excess (driven by the shale boom), which gave people the luxury to pretend the thing they cared most about was a negligible amount of carbon emissions. Now that energy security is threatened, we will all suffer until that ideology is dead. At least owning/working for energy companies - particularly oil and gas companies - gives us a hedge as to what will be a long 5-10 years of high oil prices, in my opinion. The scary thing is the collapse of the Russian state is no longer off the table, and that could further disrupt energy flows across the globe. And if China drops it's zero covid policy after CCP elections... It's hard to see energy prices coming down without a massive increase in capex here in the US. OPEC is already unable to meet their targets. I'm not calling for sustained $300 oil or anything, just that any drop in price could be met with induced demand for a while.
just a small rumor here, but this may already be happening. We had a company townhall meeting last week and our CEO mentioned that he is seeing at the high levels of other O&G companies a shift away from the rah-rah-ESG gung-ho-ness of years past, and shift more towards realistic environmental stewardship while still prioritizing making a profit. He made it seem like this was less officially announce company policy change and more a shifting of the winds type move from his leadership peers in the industry.Gordo14 said:
I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but I find it so disgusting that politicians who have made a political career off of limiting oil ans gas production in the US are now upset that OPEC is limiting oil and gas production.OPEC's decision to cutback on production is a blatant attempt to increase gas prices at the pump that cannot stand. We must end OPEC's illegal price-fixing cartel, eliminate military assistance to Saudi Arabia, and move aggressively to renewable energy.
— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) October 5, 2022
Until ESG capitulates on the issue of energy security (and thus capital returns) I don't see a real resolution to high energy prices. People don't seem to understand how the 2010s were a period of energy excess (driven by the shale boom), which gave people the luxury to pretend the thing they cared most about was a negligible amount of carbon emissions. Now that energy security is threatened, we will all suffer until that ideology is dead. At least owning/working for energy companies - particularly oil and gas companies - gives us a hedge as to what will be a long 5-10 years of high oil prices, in my opinion. The scary thing is the collapse of the Russian state is no longer off the table, and that could further disrupt energy flows across the globe. And if China drops it's zero covid policy after CCP elections... It's hard to see energy prices coming down without a massive increase in capex here in the US. OPEC is already unable to meet their targets. I'm not calling for sustained $300 oil or anything, just that any drop in price could be met with induced demand for a while.
pure speculation on my part but i imagine some of these execs started to see reserve right-offs from the increased LOE spending that pure green requires. At least that's the soapbox i find myself on most often.
Major?
shell has already been saying this, but I don't think people have noticed. the net zero goals get all the headlines but at the same time it has been clear that upstream production is what will pay for it.
Honestly, the war in Ukraine is probably the biggest reason for this shift. Basically three sides of a triangle, esg, affordability, and security. Energy has been so affordable and secure that people forgot, took it for granted, and only cared about esg. Now people realize security isn't a given and are focused on that side of the triangle.
Exxon mulling a takeover of Denbury:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/exxon-mobil-considers-buying-energy-company-denbury-bloomberg-news-2022-10-10/
This would purely be a PR move; Denbury's tertiary ops hemorrhage LOE and are pretty-much unprofitable below $70 when throwing capex in but it's probably the "greenest" oil company out there.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/exxon-mobil-considers-buying-energy-company-denbury-bloomberg-news-2022-10-10/
This would purely be a PR move; Denbury's tertiary ops hemorrhage LOE and are pretty-much unprofitable below $70 when throwing capex in but it's probably the "greenest" oil company out there.
small cap, and the smaller end of large cap are what we consider "peers".Sea Speed said:
Major?
BlackGoldAg2011 said:small cap, and the smaller end of large cap are what we consider "peers".Sea Speed said:
Major?
Met with a major at high levels very recently, can confirm the practicality and profitability eye towards ESG.
IRA
Diamondback to Acquire FireBird Energy in Midland Basin for $1.6B
https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/diamondback-acquire-firebird-energy-midland-basin-16-billion-202470
https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/diamondback-acquire-firebird-energy-midland-basin-16-billion-202470
Que?
That was the old Devon > FDL position? Not sure what Firebird paid but a solid comp for *checks notes* ECTOR County?
Inflation Reduction Act is green washing the majors by subsidizing those carbon neutral goals. Valero, Oxy, and Exxon are all ahead of the game.
Got it. Know if the act but not by it's acronyms until now.
I'm actually presenting on this in about 2 hours at the devils b-hole.
I'm actually presenting on this in about 2 hours at the devils b-hole.
Tweet was deleted. Map showing the Firebird acreage from the press release as a Spirit Halloween.
How ironic, IF true, considering Exxon operated the Conroe Field Unit (tertiary flood) in the 70 to 80's.Ag CPA said:
Exxon mulling a takeover of Denbury:
I remember clearly when I was a service hand, engineers I worked with couldn't wait for Exxon to unload Conroe and Katy fields.
If anyone on this thread works for Chevron and wouldn't mind discussing something IRT a recent job opening, I would greatly appreciate a pm.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bassoe-rig-analytics_petrobras-selects-seven-rigs-from-multi-rig-activity-6985738276536029184-Z-ZC?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Quote:
Market sources indicate Petrobras has selected seven rigs from its tender for up to eight floating rigs.
From Lot 1, which was for up to two high-spec DP rigs capable of operating in up to 3,000m of water, the selected units are Diamond Offshore semisub Ocean Courage and Transocean drillship Deepwater Corcovado. Both of these rigs are already off Brazil.
From Lot 2, which was for up to five high-spec DP rigs capable of operating in up to 2,400m of water, the selected units are Constellation drillship Brava Star, Ocyan drillships ODN I and ODN II, and Transocean drillship Deepwater Orion. The latter rig is currently stacked off West Africa, while the other units are all in Brazilian waters.
From Lot 3, which was for one DP rig capable of operating in up to 2,400m of water, the selected unit is Ocyan semisub Norbe VI. This rig is already in Brazilian waters.
It is understood a five-day comment period applies before the awards become final.
I was thinking the same thing. I grew up in Hastings field North of Alvin. There was an Exxon yard across the county road from us on SH 35. The field was a very quiet in the later 80s. I think Denbury operated it at one point in the 90s and then Enervest and now Denbury is doing CO2 injection there. My parents still live there and I live not far away.
Shout out to this thread. Several people reached out to me and had some great advice and information and as Texags does, had some contacts in the division of the referenced job posting.
It's what we do. Texags knows stuff and helps our fellow ags.
aggiesundevil4 said:
It's what we do. Texags knows stuff and helps our fellow ags.
100%
Any new news today, reason for the drop in the last few hours?
Biden.
Natty taking a beating this week…
Any idea why?
When does Freeport come back up?
When does Freeport come back up?
Guessing they will delay it again. Biden is supposed to announce some sort of plan to reduce the price of gasoline tomorrow, and I know this doesn't related to gasoline directly but I'm sure it'll involve weaponizing the federal agencies to control prices where possible while continuing to target the entire industry.AgLA06 said:
Any idea why?
When does Freeport come back up?
it's all price action at this point, going to start swing trading lol
Shoulder month. Europe has already filled their storage too so their bid is off.AustinAg008 said:
Natty taking a beating this week…
So Biden announced he is going to continue to artificially decrease gas prices by continuing to pull from the reserve with plans on refilling it with American oil when it hits $70. According to Biden, this is supposed to give operators some certainty in the future and hopes it leads to more investing and growing production faster. Be interesting to see if operators ramp up, how service companies respond, and how Wall Street responds. Due to supply chain and horsepower constraints amongst many other things I don't think much changes anytime soon.
I'd operators want price certainty they can hedge at levels slightly above the Biden floor.
I don't see anyone ramping capex over this.
I don't see anyone ramping capex over this.
Cyp0111 said:
I'd operators want price certainty they can hedge at levels slightly above the Biden floor.
I don't see anyone ramping capex over this.
Good point. Didn't think about it from that perspective.
No one gives a **** what Biden says, he will just pull the plug whenever it is convenient
Thisguy1
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BogieAggie
We're 8 games in and it's possible we still have 9 games left
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