Well, I went with $96.06 (whoop!). Thanks for all the help!!! Or not

Done! Good luck!

Done and done!

Thank you! Means a lot to me to get support from other Aggies.

North American Rig count have been steadily climbing week over week from a low of ~250 in Aug 2020 to ~760 in Aug 2022.
It has been stalled out for the past 4 weeks at around 760.
Why is that? Bc of recent price uncertainty or lack of people/materials? Will they continue to rise to pre-pandemic levels?

Note, Jan 2019 North American rig counts with $60-$65 per bbl oil was over 1000 rigs.

Gas G&P capacity is playing catch up as well.

Big time

Anyone know anything about HKN Energy/Hillwood Energy out of Dallas? They have an opening for a reservoir engineer that I'm interested in exploring. Any insight or connections would be appreciated!

I don't know anyone there but they are affiliated with the Perot family and run by an Aggie.

AlaskanAg08 said:

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Take your pick:

OCTG- Sold out until next year
Frac/completions- most spreads are sold out
Sand- When you do have a frac crew, sand can still be tricky
People: In the words of John Daniel from Daniel Energy Partners, why work in O&G when Buc-ees pays $16-$20/hr lol!

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Even if you can find CSG right now it's absurd what suppliers are charging.

We've had to resort to running yellow band on our shallow wells and that is even 300% higher than what it was 18 months ago….

Sorry to hear that you are having to run that stuff at such high prices. Although I work for Tenaris, I don't pretend to understand the casing/OCTG side of the business. Those guys are making steel 24/7 and milling pipe 24/7, and are apparently still sold out for the next 18 months. Its insane.

If you want to talk coil, I manage that side of the house, and things are much more under control as far as availability. We are still 4-6 weeks for new string orders, but that is only because the backlog of orders is high.

AlaskanAg08 said:

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Sorry to hear that you are having to run that stuff at such high prices. Although I work for Tenaris, I don't pretend to understand the casing/OCTG side of the business. Those guys are making steel 24/7 and milling pipe 24/7, and are apparently still sold out for the next 18 months. Its insane.

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I'm curious about the dynamics here. If they are running 24/7, seems like they have plenty of raw material to use at this point. Doesn't seem like the rig counts are so high to exceed the precovid demand for pipe.

Is the backlog from trying to catch up when raw material was scarce?

Did some competition shut down reducing the overall ability to supply pipe?

"I'm curious about the dynamics here. If they are running 24/7, seems like they have plenty of raw material to use at this point. Doesn't seem like the rig counts are so high to exceed the precovid demand for pipe.

Is the backlog from trying to catch up when raw material was scarce?

Did some competition shut down reducing the overall ability to supply pipe?"

- For the OCTG side, I'm really not sure...its not my side of the business.
- For coil, our backlog is simply due to us always catching up. Customers tend to break it faster than we can make it during times like these. They usually run strings for 30-70 wells and around 1 million running feet before retirement.

Schlumberger is creating a joint venture with their OneSubsea group, Aker Solutions and Subsea 7. SLB will own 70%, Aker 20%, and Subsea 7 10%

I'm tempted to gamble on UCO at these prices.

cajunaggie08 said:

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Schlumberger is creating a joint venture with their OneSubsea group, Aker Solutions and Subsea 7. SLB will own 70%, Aker 20%, and Subsea 7 10%

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Any additional details on this?

Edit, should have just googled before asking that dumb question...

https://www.slb.com/newsroom/press-release/2022/pr-2022-0830-slb-aker-solutions-subsea-7-jv

Very curious to see how this plays out.

Don't SLB and Aker have competing product lines?

Casing is tight supply v demand. You also have foreign producers who have a quota they can bring into the states and some with duties, and you might have another big producer about to get hit with duties for their Mexican manufactured pipe.

When COVID hit all the distributors intentionally reduced their on-hand inventories, so they have not been able to build any inventory.

But it's 2022 issue - we expect pipe prices to go down in 2023.

terradactylexpress said:

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Don't SLB and Aker have competing product lines?

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Yes, several. The pitch made to us worker bees at OneSubsea was that they have very little crossover in terms of markets where they have strong sales. Upper management skirted all questions about how will they combine product offerings and engineering teams. They did say they don't expect to immediately close any plants or logistics bases as both companies are running lean after 2020 and there aren't many facilities that can handle taking on the increased work. I'm not stressing since the product line I work on is much larger in terms of market share than Aker's.

MAROON said:

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Casing is tight supply v demand. You also have foreign producers who have a quota they can bring into the states and some with duties, and you might have another big producer about to get hit with duties for their Mexican manufactured pipe.

When COVID hit all the distributors intentionally reduced their on-hand inventories, so they have not been able to build any inventory.

But it's 2022 issue - we expect pipe prices to go down in 2023.

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They better. You're killing my AFEs!

Fair point, Aker seems to have a strong grab on just the North sea and a few random fields vs OSS

Dont....you saw how the funds acted when prices dropped.

Just put money in and buy futures....

cajunaggie08 said:

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terradactylexpress said:

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Don't SLB and Aker have competing product lines?

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Yes, several. The pitch made to us worker bees at OneSubsea was that they have very little crossover in terms of markets where they have strong sales. Upper management skirted all questions about how will they combine product offerings and engineering teams. They did say they don't expect to immediately close any plants or logistics bases as both companies are running lean after 2020 and there aren't many facilities that can handle taking on the increased work. I'm not stressing since the product line I work on is much larger in terms of market share than Aker's.

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Usually the product lines merging and technology sharing is the last part of a merger. Standard merger playbook is to keep the sales and tech in place, start pushing executives over to the freshly bought companies, and start looking to cut overhead. There probably won't be much for any executive to make their name cutting fat. SLB might be happy to never truly merge the products if their isn't much customer overlap.

And I've never heard of an OFS company voluntarily cutting down on their portfolio in the name of consistent product offerings. The old technology just goes to lower costs markets and the one customer who demands nothing get changed about their BHAs because its always worked.

Oil getting hammered this AM.

been a tough one week stretch. Down from $96 TO $83 in that time.

It's like the market is thumbing its nose at the Saudis.

You have managed money with a thematic trade of recession, also, you have the US releasing SPR and China is also drawing down inventories. Demand is softening and the USD strength hurts.

Prices on a day to day basis usually don't make sense. Up and down $10 with no real new news. The SPR / low demand is old news. What's really new?

Saudi has a pretty high floor for prices. Interesting to see if they over react and try to announce some large cut to help support that floor.

Another variable in the volatility equation.....

AustinAg008 said:

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Saudi has a pretty high floor for prices. Interesting to see if they over react and try to announce some large cut to help support that floor.

Another variable in the volatility equation.....

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True, but the IPO plans impact that.

David Wallace said:

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UK is lifting the franking ban they instituted back in 2019.

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Don't get me wrong, that's great, but don't know if they've ever really been successful at it…. But maybe their 50% taxes should be lowered as well…..