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BiochemAg97
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 1:09p, 3/15/22
AG
SpreadsheetAg said:
one MEEN Ag said:
The Saudi's own currency is pegged to the dollar. Doing this will destabilize its own currency. Also, as a petrostate, Saudi is wise to choose to peg their currency to a superpower. If they don't then their ability to trade is directly pegged to the price of oil. Look at Russia, whenever the price of oil goes down, Russia losses purchasing power internationally. (Pre Sanctions)
Its a negotiating tactic right out of Trump's Art of the Deal --- be prepared to walk.


It is a continuation of a long term trend by China and others to move away from the dollar.
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BrokeAssAggie
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2:25p, 3/17/22
Now that's funny..

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Ulrich
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 3:08p, 3/17/22
BrokeAssAggie said:
Now that's funny..


The administration turned on a f****** dime on this one. Years of proclaiming all the ways they were going to restrict, regulate, and reduce production to castigating the industry for not producing as much.

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htxag09
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In reply to Ulrich • 3:23p, 3/17/22
AG
Ulrich said:
BrokeAssAggie said:
Now that's funny..


The administration turned on a f****** dime on this one. Years of proclaiming all the ways they were going to restrict, regulate, and reduce production to castigating the industry for not producing as much.

Hell, they're still just going in circles.

"Produce more oil!"

*introduces legislation to tax any revenue of oil over ~$65/bbl at 50%
*unite behind a strategy of blaming oil companies for high prices, vowing to make oil companies testify about high gas prices
*block consideration of a bill aiming for U.S. energy independence
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Ulrich
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In reply to htxag09 • 3:42p, 3/17/22
htxag09 said:
Ulrich said:
BrokeAssAggie said:
Now that's funny..


The administration turned on a f****** dime on this one. Years of proclaiming all the ways they were going to restrict, regulate, and reduce production to castigating the industry for not producing as much.

Hell, they're still just going in circles.

"Produce more oil!"

*introduces legislation to tax any revenue of oil over ~$65/bbl at 50%
*unite behind a strategy of blaming oil companies for high prices, vowing to make oil companies testify about high gas prices
*block consideration of a bill aiming for U.S. energy independence

If only there were some mechanism that could automatically incentivize people to produce things that are scarce relative to demand. We could call it "price" and then the economy could react rationally to shocks without any intervention at all.
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SidetrackAg
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10:48a, 3/21/22
AG
Where do yall see oil heading if Russia decides to cut people off? Saw one thread that mentioned $300.
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Joseph Parrish
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In reply to SidetrackAg • 11:08a, 3/21/22
AG
SidetrackAg said:
Where do yall see oil heading if Russia decides to cut people off? Saw one thread that mentioned $300.
I think it would drop from a bigger economic recession before hitting $300. I don't know a damn thing though.
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Cyp0111
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In reply to Joseph Parrish • 11:46a, 3/21/22
Yes- you would crush the economy those levels but a recession would start well before $200 bbl.
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to SidetrackAg • 11:56a, 3/21/22
AG
SidetrackAg said:
Where do yall see oil heading if Russia decides to cut people off? Saw one thread that mentioned $300.
Remember, Russia is a seller. The rest of the world is full of buyers. There is no incentive to reduce their own ability to finance their future through cutting people off on their end. Why would Russia care to see a world where nobody can buy their oil, but pay $300 a barrel to OPEC and America?

Now, what Russia is willing to do, is test the resolve of the west through strategically applying the biggest bang for the buck in pain. And that is gas to heat homes in europe. Which is valuable, but not nearly as valuable as oil.
The hard part about causing temporary pain through sanctions is that people find ways to alleviate that pain and then when you try to mend fences don't revert back to your system that allows for sanctions in the first place.

Germany has already shown they are playing with kid gloves to Russia because of their dependence on their gas. Germany has been too stupid over the past 30 years to invest in a coastal LNG terminal.
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one MEEN Ag
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12:00p, 3/21/22
AG
Something I haven't seen talked about much is what sanctioned capacity will do to the future of the oil and gas market.

Its one thing when the world is producing at max capacity and oil is $100. Its a completely different animal when Iran + Russia sanctions pull 4-14 million barrels of oil off the 'over the counter' market and oil is $100+.

Who is going to invest billions in an offshore platform with the political risk that a democrat president could collapse the price of oil with an executive action? It takes 4+ years to make those platforms from when a supermajor says go. You're betting not on the immediate reactionary politics but the political counter swing afterwards.
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Ag92NGranbury
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10:29p, 3/21/22
AG
biden doesn't affect gas prices at all with the cancellation of the keystone pipeline

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-keystone-xl-pipeline-has-nothing-to-do-with-gas-prices-175038384.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to one MEEN Ag • 8:32a, 3/22/22
AG
one MEEN Ag said:
Something I haven't seen talked about much is what sanctioned capacity will do to the future of the oil and gas market.

Its one thing when the world is producing at max capacity and oil is $100. Its a completely different animal when Iran + Russia sanctions pull 4-14 million barrels of oil off the 'over the counter' market and oil is $100+.

Who is going to invest billions in an offshore platform with the political risk that a democrat president could collapse the price of oil with an executive action? It takes 4+ years to make those platforms from when a supermajor says go. You're betting not on the immediate reactionary politics but the political counter swing afterwards.


Sanctioned oil isn't necessarily off the market. It is just shifted around. China, for example, is still a buyer of "sanctioned" oil.

Lifting the sanctions would likely have a market impact because of perception, but I'm not sure it would have as big an impact on supply/demand as you think.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Ag92NGranbury • 8:41a, 3/22/22
AG
Ag92NGranbury said:
biden doesn't affect gas prices at all with the cancellation of the keystone pipeline

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-keystone-xl-pipeline-has-nothing-to-do-with-gas-prices-175038384.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr


1) build more transportation capacity and canada builds more production capacity, no point in drilling more than you can move
2) yes, a lot might have been shipped to other countries, especially when US was a net exporter. US would have taken anything it needed out first. shipping to other countries would have allowed our friends in Europe to be a little less dependent on Russian oil.
3) global commodity. People like the author have a real hard time with the concept of a global commodity prices by a market.
4) wouldn't have changed Russian oil into NE, Jones Act still a barrier to shipping oil and refined products from gulf coast to NE.


It amazes me how blindly people point to Russia for the price increases that started when Biden was elected.
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Sea Speed
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 8:47a, 3/22/22
AG
It shouldn't amaze you when people who only think what they are told to think, do so.
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 8:51a, 3/22/22
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
one MEEN Ag said:
Something I haven't seen talked about much is what sanctioned capacity will do to the future of the oil and gas market.

Its one thing when the world is producing at max capacity and oil is $100. Its a completely different animal when Iran + Russia sanctions pull 4-14 million barrels of oil off the 'over the counter' market and oil is $100+.

Who is going to invest billions in an offshore platform with the political risk that a democrat president could collapse the price of oil with an executive action? It takes 4+ years to make those platforms from when a supermajor says go. You're betting not on the immediate reactionary politics but the political counter swing afterwards.


Sanctioned oil isn't necessarily off the market. It is just shifted around. China, for example, is still a buyer of "sanctioned" oil.

Lifting the sanctions would likely have a market impact because of perception, but I'm not sure it would have as big an impact on supply/demand as you think.
Right. But even Iran has been shown to be hampered by sanctions and can't move oil as efficiently in the market.
The traders who get paid to do this for a living don't trust a single word out of an oil producing countries mouth. They have satellites watching every ship and every storage tank. There's a whole suite of algorithms that judge how much oil is in a storage container from how much of a shadow the side of the tank casts on the floating lid.

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FHKChE07
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10:05a, 3/22/22
AG
I'm of the belief that if they could sell embargoed Iranian oil to the Israelis, that no oil sanction really matters. The oil will get sold. It is just a matter of at how much of a discount.
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Cyp0111
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In reply to FHKChE07 • 10:33a, 3/22/22
You are correct, its just at what price.
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Drillbit4
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In reply to FHKChE07 • 11:57a, 3/22/22
AG
We are now seeing evidence that the very European countries pledging to sanction and not buy Russian oil, are actually buying Russian oil. They are using shell companies and round-about routes to eventually acquire the oil. Govts know and are looking the other way. It just goes to show you how vital (and tight) oil is to all these country's economies.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to FHKChE07 • 9:07p, 3/23/22
AG
FHKChE07 said:
I'm of the belief that if they could sell embargoed Iranian oil to the Israelis, that no oil sanction really matters. The oil will get sold. It is just a matter of at how much of a discount.
It would be an interesting study. Countries that sanction end up paying higher prices. Countries being sanctioned end up receiving below market rates, but how much lower than what market rates would have been if there were no sanctions? Which group does oil sanctions hurt more, the sanctioning countries or the sanctioned country?
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PeekingDuck
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In reply to Drillbit4 • 9:39p, 3/23/22
AG
Yeah, there's no real choice. They don't want to destroy the global economy.
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 12:14p, 3/24/22
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
FHKChE07 said:
I'm of the belief that if they could sell embargoed Iranian oil to the Israelis, that no oil sanction really matters. The oil will get sold. It is just a matter of at how much of a discount.
It would be an interesting study. Countries that sanction end up paying higher prices. Countries being sanctioned end up receiving below market rates, but how much lower than what market rates would have been if there were no sanctions? Which group does oil sanctions hurt more, the sanctioning countries or the sanctioned country?
The winners are those who are neither sanctioning or sanctioned. If you're willing to buy sanctioned oil you get a nice discount. Who doesn't love a good deal.
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 1:34p, 3/24/22
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
Ag92NGranbury said:
biden doesn't affect gas prices at all with the cancellation of the keystone pipeline

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-keystone-xl-pipeline-has-nothing-to-do-with-gas-prices-175038384.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr


1) build more transportation capacity and canada builds more production capacity, no point in drilling more than you can move
2) yes, a lot might have been shipped to other countries, especially when US was a net exporter. US would have taken anything it needed out first. shipping to other countries would have allowed our friends in Europe to be a little less dependent on Russian oil.
3) global commodity. People like the author have a real hard time with the concept of a global commodity prices by a market.
4) wouldn't have changed Russian oil into NE, Jones Act still a barrier to shipping oil and refined products from gulf coast to NE.


It amazes me how blindly people point to Russia for the price increases that started when Biden was elected.
this is the other part they really fail to recognize. these giant infrastructure projects with timelines that are measured in decades not months and years. They other part is, maybe that same oil is still getting here that would have been carried by Keystone XL through other means. But if the transport cost is double, that cost gets passed on.
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9:40a, 3/28/22
AG
So China has a zero covid policy, shutting down their economy for covid while the rest of the World is nearly back to normal.

So oil slides…

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/shanghai-reports-record-asymptomatic-covid-cases-lockdowns-begin-2022-03-28/
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Cyp0111
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In reply to Premium • 9:42a, 3/28/22
China is .....
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Engine10
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8:30a, 3/29/22
AG
FTC forcing Encap to sell off EP assets in Utah, caught this gem in the report. Whoops

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/03/ftc-requires-encap-sell-ep-energy-corps-entire-utah-oil-business-amid-concerns-deal-would-increase
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Cyp0111
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In reply to Engine10 • 8:48a, 3/29/22
Wow, it's amazing that our regulators think oil and gas producers are anything but price takers.
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8:53a, 3/29/22
AG
* down below $100
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AgLA06
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In reply to Engine10 • 9:43a, 3/29/22
AG
That can't be real.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Engine10 • 2:31p, 3/29/22
AG
Engine10 said:
FTC forcing Encap to sell off EP assets in Utah, caught this gem in the report. Whoops

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/03/ftc-requires-encap-sell-ep-energy-corps-entire-utah-oil-business-amid-concerns-deal-would-increase


More from the Biden Administration "high prices are because of large greedy companies" playbook.
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to Engine10 • 10:07p, 3/29/22
AG
Engine10 said:
FTC forcing Encap to sell off EP assets in Utah, caught this gem in the report. Whoops

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/03/ftc-requires-encap-sell-ep-energy-corps-entire-utah-oil-business-amid-concerns-deal-would-increase

Someone's about to have an uncomfortable meeting with XCL's in house counsel about "appropriate business communication"…
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ChemAg15
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10:22p, 3/29/22
AG
Lol. Dank meme tho
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Comeby!
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8:35a, 3/30/22
AG
I think that may have showed up in internal docs and it was used against them in the case.
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gigem1223
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11:10a, 3/30/22
Heard Javelin was buying EP's Uinta basin stuff.
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MAROON
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In reply to gigem1223 • 11:48a, 3/30/22
AG
gigem1223 said:
Heard Javelin was buying EP's Uinta basin stuff.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/crescent-energy-buys-ep-energys-uinta-oil-gas-assets-815-mln-2022-02-16/

Crescent per this
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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gigem1223
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In reply to MAROON • 12:42p, 3/30/22
MAROON said:
gigem1223 said:
Heard Javelin was buying EP's Uinta basin stuff.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/crescent-energy-buys-ep-energys-uinta-oil-gas-assets-815-mln-2022-02-16/

Crescent per this


Right. Javelin is a subsidiary of theirs and will be operating it. Same with the Fleur De Lis Barnett acreage and the Venado Eagleford stuff.
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