shiphunt said:
Thanks, appreciate the input. This is really for an industry overview/current situation I'm putting together. I have BH data incorporated already, but wanted to show the dispersions/range of forecasts to give an idea of possible paths (at least according to those who claim to know)
Oh man, thats going to be tough to get anything more than some semi-wild ass guesses. Look at this company's data to get a sense of the fundamentals for shale.
https://shaleprofile.com/blog/permian/permian-update-through-february-2021/The key macro takeaways I have for 2021-2022 are that shale is struggling to drill to even keep a flat overall field production in the permian. People might be drilling more right now, but is it enough to counter the decline curves? Probably not since the highs were built on the backs of PE cash burn, which isn't there right now.
GOM offshore is heavy on low cost tiebacks to maximize current production capabilities, not as many huge projects being floated out there right now.
There's conjecture on #EFT if Saudi can even return to their 2008 form or if their getting bit by their own field declines. Total OPEC+ extra capacity is estimated to be only 4-5MM barrels a day.
If corona virus fears wane across the globe, and the world returns to their 1% energy increase YOY they've been marching along for 100+ years, oil could easily break a $100 a barrel.
Which would send a flurry of money out into the fields and greenlight a bunch of marginal projects. Who knows.