ChemAg15 said:

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Natural gas is trading for $140+/MMBTU at Katy hub today. Natural gas demand is nuts right now.

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How does this impact the end user? Say my monthly Atmos bill? Am i burning a $1,000 fire right now with my gas logs???

I would think atmos has contracts in place and is paying a prenegotiated price for the gas they're supplying you. These are spot prices.

$550/mmbtu in Oklahoma right now. We locked $161/mmbtu today in one of our fields.

I presume you reference Power Service coupled with Odessa Pump. If the trend continues they're going the way of NOV where they pivot to a new market and sell off or discontinue the distribution side of the business that put them on the map.

Yes, know lots of folks who are no longer there and Q4 results next week will be telling. There CEO is a spreadsheet guy (and a moron) and I believe he's running out of inventory reduction to offset the losses.

Yes, exactly those two.

Are you referencing the new CEO as of this summer? Tough position to be hired into.

Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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There are traders who made a decade bonuses this week
And also those who may be fired

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HSC closed at $181/mmbtu.

Comeby! said:

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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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There are traders who made a decade bonuses this week
And also those who may be fired

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HSC closed at $181/mmbtu.

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This might be a dumb question but being a 3 day weekend, does that mean that daily price carries through to Tuesday?

Yes

Boat Shoes said:

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Comeby! said:

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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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There are traders who made a decade bonuses this week
And also those who may be fired

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HSC closed at $181/mmbtu.

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This might be a dumb question but being a 3 day weekend, does that mean that daily price carries through to Tuesday?

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It's actually a 4-Day weekend strip since the market is closed on Monday.

The Perfect Storm

Jdrexgman said:

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Boat Shoes said:

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Comeby! said:

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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:

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There are traders who made a decade bonuses this week
And also those who may be fired

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HSC closed at $181/mmbtu.

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This might be a dumb question but being a 3 day weekend, does that mean that daily price carries through to Tuesday?

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It's actually a 4-Day weekend strip since the market is closed on Monday.

The Perfect Storm

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One of our fields is 100% of HSC. We may blow down the gas lift system to sales the last day pending weather.

The NG grid is about to get stretched REAL thin. Coming from someone in a shop who was on the right side of this event on Friday's trade day, I'm praying for warmer than forecasted weather and field ops people keeping those wells turned on and warm for as long as possible.

I'm an old dummy... the price i looked at at closing Friday was like $2.90/mcf. How do the $181 mmbtu and what I saw equate? Or do they?!!!? Thanks for any explanation !!

You saw March forward month pricing. That's what is usually shown on the ticker on your daytime cable TV stock show. The $100-$600 gas is physical gas being traded at locations on the grid for delivery for this weekend (Sat-Tues).

Dirty Mike and the Boys said:

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You saw March forward month pricing. That's what is usually shown on the ticker on your daytime cable TV stock show. The $100-$600 gas is physical gas being traded at locations on the grid for delivery for this weekend (Sat-Tues).

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So would the $2.90 figure go up due to physical gas price this weekend or not have much effect ? Thanks!

Pipelines are wide open and they continue to be because the current event is just as supply driven as it is demand.

That depends on several factors like storage, perceived short term production impact, March weather, etc. This winter was pretty bearish up until this event, so it remains to be seen if the market thinks this cold was enough to even things out supply-wise.

Thanks for the explanation!

I am not a commodities trader, but I'll take a stab...

The scientific definition of MCF is a volumetric unit, whereas MMBTU is energy content, similar to calories in food. When you see MMCF (million cubic feet), that is at a specific temperature and pressure.

One gallon of propane has almost twice the energy content of natural gas. Sales grade natural gas has a BTU specification requirement.

I think since volume of gas varies with temperature and pressure, the commodity is traded in energy units, because energy is what really matters.

Hope that answers your question.

Mcf is thousand cf. MMcf is million cf.

FYI, most gas (after stripping out liquids) runs about 1:1 with an Mcf. So $2/mcf = $2/mmbtu. Wellhead gas gets as high at 1400 mmbtu depending on the formation. The Haynesville is dry so about 1000mmbtu.

Wellhead gas at 1400 mmbtu. That's some rich stuff. Typical sales quality natural gas has a heating value of 1000 btu/cf. When you take the 1 mcf (1000 cf) x 1000 btu (1000 x 1000 = 1,000,000 or mm) that's where you get the mcf = mmbtu cost comparison.

It is 1:1 at a specified temp and pressure. Pretty sure it's 60 degrees Fahrenheit and 30 inches of Mercury.

That's why the the sales grade natural gas spec, as Aduey mentioned, is measured in btu/cf. There's a low and high acceptable heating value (LHV and HHV).

I imagine the physical commodity is traded in BTU because you want all the energy you pay for, whether it takes 1 cubit foot or 1.25 cubic foot.

Thanks for the catch on the M / MM nomenclature.

It is 68 deg F and 1 atm, which is very close to 30in of Hg (760mmHg).

Thanks. This sparked my interest, so I did some research this morning. Everything I've seen has been 60, but I think the small pressure difference correlates to the 8 degree temp change. See Pg 22.

https://www.api.org/~/media/Files/Oil-and-Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas/API-Understanding-Natural-Gas-Markets.pdf

Apparently in 2006 FERC issued a policy regulating the policy of gas quality and interchangeability. In the past, the gas quality was governed by the shipper tariff. Shipper A could be carrying 1030 BTU/cf and Shipper B 998 BTU/cf. Spot prices traded in $/Btu settles the quality difference.

Here's the FERC policy if any of you are interested:

https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/G-1_29.pdf

lb3 said:

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ChemAg15 said:

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If you really want to get technical, a SCF is actually a set number of molecules.

One SCF = 379.3 lb-mols
One lb-mol = 453.6 mols
One mol = 6.022 x 10^23 molecules

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It's a bit more complicated than that. Natural gas is mostly methane but there are other hydrocarbons present so your lbs/mol can vary a bit.

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Correct, for nat gas mixtures the average molecular weight is used when dealing with mass to mol conversions.

CaptnCarl said:

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Thanks. This sparked my interest, so I did some research this morning. Everything I've seen has been 60, but I think the small pressure difference correlates to the 8 degree temp change. See Pg 22.

https://www.api.org/~/media/Files/Oil-and-Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas/API-Understanding-Natural-Gas-Markets.pdf

Apparently in 2006 FERC issued a policy regulating the policy of gas quality and interchangeability. In the past, the gas quality was governed by the shipper tariff. Shipper A could be carrying 1030 BTU/cf and Shipper B 998 BTU/cf. Spot prices traded in $/Btu settles the quality difference.

Here's the FERC policy if any of you are interested:

https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/G-1_29.pdf

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Well screw me, you're right. I've always defaulted back to the NIST standard but it looks like natural gas uses the International Standard Metric Conditions which equates to 15 deg C or 59 deg F.

I've let Walter White down today.

The gas analysis equipment (chromatograph) uses those molecular conversions, but likely will never see those in a tariff or contract.

Typical field measurement equipment can measure density, temperature and pressure, but not molecular composition. Often volume rates (mmSCFD) are used because that's how it's measured in the field. Not until the processing facility or sales hub are btus measured. Hence, we use a standard pressure and temperature.

Gonna start posting a weekly performance recap.

Any other companies I should add?

CaptnCarl said:

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Thanks Avagadro. User name checks out.

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Why we talking about making guacamole?