Put 666 behind us!!!

But this post is on a page that is one better than the beast.

Wow looked up today and saw 53 on the oil handle.

Are we back???

$53/bbl is akin to a win over OSU or ISU.

Oil demand back to summer 2019 levels will be akin to a B12 title and trip to the CFP.

I'm sad I can't make it. If you figure out a way I will pay for the recorded event.

Read an article the other day that had OPEC+ compliance at 75% based upon estimates of ships leaving ports. Even Saudi was caught moving down from 99% compliance down to 91%. So OPEC is back to their old ways.

As we're moving back into pre-COVID demand it will be interesting to see what happens. How quickly can production resume and will America be as eager to take market share? How quickly can the world burn through its storage glut? And as oil creeps higher and higher, the game of chicken continues.

All the while it feels like we are one strong market signal of increased production from going back down into $20 crude.

I think OPEC+ publicly committing to uphold cuts while privately condoning less compliance is going to be their strategy moving forward. They don't want any obvious signal about increasing demand. That will reduce the number of people who can take obvious positions against them. Traders with satellite resources will know the truth, but Joe Blow whose paper trading his beer money? This strategy will help cull any retail amplification and keep it off the front page of the news.

Can you post this article or send it to me?

Comeby! said:

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Can you post this article or send it to me?

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-oil-output-cuts-compliance-170902682.html

If you download the Oil Price Live app, the news section on it is pretty good. Trash still finds its way into the news section, but there's good articles in there that you wouldn't normally see if you were just following the normal news outlets.

Sounds like COP/CXO should be finalizing today - still lots of uncertainty on both sides as far as remaining layoffs through mid-feb

Surprised nobody has brought this up yet...
"Exxon Draws SEC Probe Over Permian Basin Asset Valuation"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-draws-sec-probe-over-permian-basin-asset-valuation-11610716622

"Several people involved in valuing a key asset in the Permian Basin, currently the highest-producing U.S. oil field, complained during an internal assessment in 2019 that employees were being forced to use unrealistic assumptions about how quickly the company could drill wells there to arrive at a higher value"

jetch17 said:

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Sounds like COP/CXO should be finalizing today - still lots of uncertainty on both sides as far as remaining layoffs through mid-feb

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They've released the top couple levels of the new corporate and L48 org charts.

Layoffs start 2/15 and the full org will be released 2/23

Yep 2/15 is the date all my COP folks are saying - said morale sucks as it always does when they announce an axe swing coming

shiphunt said:

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Surprised nobody has brought this up yet...
"Exxon Draws SEC Probe Over Permian Basin Asset Valuation"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-draws-sec-probe-over-permian-basin-asset-valuation-11610716622

"Several people involved in valuing a key asset in the Permian Basin, currently the highest-producing U.S. oil field, complained during an internal assessment in 2019 that employees were being forced to use unrealistic assumptions about how quickly the company could drill wells there to arrive at a higher value"

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Story behind a paywall....

When I saw the headline I thought it would be a story about reserve estimation, under-estimating production decline curves, etc. I'm interested to hear more.

shiphunt said:

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Surprised nobody has brought this up yet...
"Exxon Draws SEC Probe Over Permian Basin Asset Valuation"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-draws-sec-probe-over-permian-basin-asset-valuation-11610716622

"Several people involved in valuing a key asset in the Permian Basin, currently the highest-producing U.S. oil field, complained during an internal assessment in 2019 that employees were being forced to use unrealistic assumptions about how quickly the company could drill wells there to arrive at a higher value"

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There are a lot of unrealistic assumptions in M&A.

plain_o_llama said:

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shiphunt said:

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Surprised nobody has brought this up yet...
"Exxon Draws SEC Probe Over Permian Basin Asset Valuation"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-draws-sec-probe-over-permian-basin-asset-valuation-11610716622

"Several people involved in valuing a key asset in the Permian Basin, currently the highest-producing U.S. oil field, complained during an internal assessment in 2019 that employees were being forced to use unrealistic assumptions about how quickly the company could drill wells there to arrive at a higher value"

---

Story behind a paywall....

When I saw the headline I thought it would be a story about reserve estimation, under-estimating production decline curves, etc. I'm interested to hear more.

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From Yahoo.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-sec-probe-highlights-concerns-194844372.html

Wrong thread

shiphunt said:

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Surprised nobody has brought this up yet...
"Exxon Draws SEC Probe Over Permian Basin Asset Valuation"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-draws-sec-probe-over-permian-basin-asset-valuation-11610716622

"Several people involved in valuing a key asset in the Permian Basin, currently the highest-producing U.S. oil field, complained during an internal assessment in 2019 that employees were being forced to use unrealistic assumptions about how quickly the company could drill wells there to arrive at a higher value"

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I normally like Anas's takes, but this claim seems like a bit of a stretch. There could certainly be consequences for Exxon, but I'm not connecting the dots on how this event marks the end of the entry and expansion of majors into the Permian.

Perhaps someone smarter and wiser can enlighten me.

Anas likes to plant his flag in the sand to see what sticks. That said, his analysis isn't too far off most of the time.

Over estimating what you're going to drill in 5years doesn't sound earth shattering. Didn't read article (paywall) but that's what it sounds like from the title. Maybe their activity assumption was based on their price deck and not the SEC deck? I mean not good but doesn't seem similar to Volkswagen either.

The whistle blower was detailing how management was forcing lower level employees to change their reports to be more optimistic so that upper management could project unrealistic values coming out of the Permian. Forcing them to help sell the lie to investors anyways.

Comeby! said:

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Anas likes to plant his flag in the sand to see what sticks. That said, his analysis isn't too far off most of the time.

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I agree that his analysis isn't too far off most of the time, but it seems like he is reaching here. Even if the SEC proves that Exxon overestimated reserves, how does this result in any more than punishment specifically of Exxon? SEC's investigation of Exxon's reserve reporting off of one whistleblower seems like the least of worries for other majors or any other company large or small with a Permian presence. If demand rises and prices with it, there will be activity in the Permian, yes?

I'd truly like to know what I'm missing, if I could read between the lines more skillfully with Anas's comments, I would.

HotardAg07 said:

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The whistle blower was detailing how management was forcing lower level employees to change their reports to be more optimistic so that upper management could project unrealistic values coming out of the Permian. Forcing them to help sell the lie to investors anyways.

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Roger that. Yeah, that's not good.

I read the article. It's speaking to drilling times and how quickly and cheaply they can be knocked out, accelerating the development timing and moving PV up. They aren't talking about type curves.

The one time I asked that Anas guy to provide some type of data to justify one of his outlandish prognostications and his response was "this is a free service, take it or leave it". I left it.