I agree. I think the PE game of buying fringe and trying to flip is over for the foreseeable future.
Houston..we have a problem....
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Last: 2 days ago by Bibendum 86
That would never happen. Shareholders, specifically institutional shareholders wouldn't let it happen. While I agree that most management teams in this scenario deserve to go, there's a reason A/AA players aren't in the majors yet, to continue your metaphor.Dr. Doctor said:I'd honestly like to see an experiment with the VP group and below being kept and the SEC reportable group being let go. Move everyone on up and see how it runs.Comeby! said:BiochemAg97 said:
Either way, given the c suite bankruptcy bonuses is insane. And I'm not convinced leaving the team that ran the ship into the ground should be left in charge. All this about "but they know the business" is not convincing. It is generally the people (far) below them that are actually running the day to day operations and if the c suite had the strategic vision to turn things around, they probably wouldn't be in the position they are in.
Agreed. The problem is those making the decision are kind of in a bind. You have to hire someone to come in and turn the ship around, essentially wiping your ass. There's not a lot of teams or executives that can do that consistently and if there is, they aren't cheap and are ridiculously expensive. Normally the board hires Bob and Bob (some ridiculously priced advisor on a day rate) to tell them what the issues are which ultimately cost them more than the original but newly incentivized management team. The result is often the same, consultants and lawyers get bank and investors and employees get F'ed.
Essentially fire the Majors, call up the A or AA minor league and see how they would run it. You know, the ones running it while the ship was going into the ground.
~egon
The board (another problem in a lot of these cases) is left with two expensive and unattractive options. Bringing up the Minors players is just asking to get eaten alive while they learn on the job. The C-Suite isn't a place to learn on the job. Maybe some 91 or 2) AAA players, but that's about it.
Love the metaphor, though.
I havent heard anything, but it wouldnt shock me. I dont see a merger helping any of them though as they all carry tons of debt and no signs of day rates rising in the near future..bullard21k said:
Anybody heard rumors of a few offshore drilling contractors merging together in the next 4-8 weeks?
Lockdown part 2 coming. The already crippled industry is about to get wrecked.
Dan Scott said:
Lockdown part 2 coming. The already crippled industry is about to get wrecked.
Sure feels like things are headed that direction.
This is orchestrated. So ridiculous.Dan Scott said:
Lockdown part 2 coming. The already crippled industry is about to get wrecked.
Permian shut-ins coming in a few days (start of November, contracts are CMA so the next couple of days are pretty insulated)?
yessir.
cajunaggie08 said:I havent heard anything, but it wouldnt shock me. I dont see a merger helping any of them though as they all carry tons of debt and no signs of day rates rising in the near future..bullard21k said:
Anybody heard rumors of a few offshore drilling contractors merging together in the next 4-8 weeks?
It seems Diamond, Pacific, Noble, and Seadrill are all up for grabs as potential merger candidates.
How long are the minimum volume commitments generally in Permian contracts? 5 years?
Most are minimum 10 years.
FERC tariffs are usually posted online on carrier's website if you are interested.
Example:
https://www.plainsallamerican.com/customer-center/pipeline-tariffs/tariffs-search-results?issuer=Plains%20Pipeline%2C%20L.P.&rAgency=All&origin=&destination=&status=All
FERC tariffs are usually posted online on carrier's website if you are interested.
Example:
https://www.plainsallamerican.com/customer-center/pipeline-tariffs/tariffs-search-results?issuer=Plains%20Pipeline%2C%20L.P.&rAgency=All&origin=&destination=&status=All
I see many of the Delaware guys are beginning to post a percentage of acreage that is federal acreage. Certainly acknowledge that risk after Biden has stated he wants to end oil and gas within 5 years.
Due to the way New Mexico developed, there is as much State of New Mexico land as there is federal land in the Delaware Basin. NMSLO lands will fall soon after federal lands fall, given the stated stances of both the governor and land commissioner. Are the Delaware guys posting percentage of land that is state land in their presentations, or are they just pretending the state lands aren't on the same chopping block?
Link to Ownership Map
Due to the way New Mexico developed, there is as much State of New Mexico land as there is federal land in the Delaware Basin. NMSLO lands will fall soon after federal lands fall, given the stated stances of both the governor and land commissioner. Are the Delaware guys posting percentage of land that is state land in their presentations, or are they just pretending the state lands aren't on the same chopping block?
Link to Ownership Map
Thanks. I'm not even trying to argue anymore between midstream and upstream, I think the whole oil industry is going down the drain with a Biden presidency (assuming that happens and Democrats take the Senate). Trying to figure out how to best insulate, since my upstream job isn't going to be too awesome anymore. Part of that might unfortunately be shorting the worst positioned oil names.CaptnCarl said:
Most are minimum 10 years.
FERC tariffs are usually posted online on carrier's website if you are interested.
Example:
https://www.plainsallamerican.com/customer-center/pipeline-tariffs/tariffs-search-results?issuer=Plains%20Pipeline%2C%20L.P.&rAgency=All&origin=&destination=&status=All
Upstream will be hit first, of course, but midstream can't be a good place to be when the wells stop coming - even if the midstream contract is protected in bankruptcy, you can only go so far up the food chain (sue the banks I guess when they take over the assets).
Well, production is going to drop like a rock so prices will increase. PE has pivoted vampire squads to ESG/Renewables to get LP dollars. BP is virtue signaling and hired a McKinsey partner as strategy head, Shell and Total are disciplened and even Exxon is cutting everything in a Hail Mary to save dividend.
I think you also look a Venezuela and other areas and they supply side is shaping up. Demand is the big question.
I think you also look a Venezuela and other areas and they supply side is shaping up. Demand is the big question.
Biden win may actually be good for a oil prices in medium term as they tie up production in the US. I prefer oil companies drilling outside USA.. Ones that also have lower break even levels..
Aston04 said:
Biden win may actually be good for a oil prices in medium term as they tie up production in the US. I prefer oil companies drilling outside USA.. Ones that also have lower break even levels..
Well, I sure don't. Domestic drilling is my livelihood.
I see minimal go forward for L48 unconventional at this time
understood! Definitely voting Trump! Best wishes!txaggie_08 said:Aston04 said:
Biden win may actually be good for a oil prices in medium term as they tie up production in the US. I prefer oil companies drilling outside USA.. Ones that also have lower break even levels..
Well, I sure don't. Domestic drilling is my livelihood.
I'm hearing of quite a few crews going back to work in Colorado and ND in December. Nobody seems to know why though.
Strange timing
Nice quarter beat by RDS today. Interesting that Permian is to be maintained as one of the core upstream assets. Wasn't expecting that.
La Bamba said:
Nice quarter beat by RDS today. Interesting that Permian is to be maintained as one of the core upstream assets. Wasn't expecting that.
Also pretty surprised we saw positive news this morning and the dividend raised (slightly) as well
Oil continuing to sell off. Interesting to see with China and India buying more and more crude.
Refining margins are up too.
Refining margins are up too.
yep, i wasn't expecting the dividend news either.
i'm not surprised to see Permian on the list of core assets. we will see what that means for the rest of the Shales assets though...
i'm not surprised to see Permian on the list of core assets. we will see what that means for the rest of the Shales assets though...
Yeah cutting rrefineries from 14 to 6 globally is a big cut toosts7049 said:
yep, i wasn't expecting the dividend news either.
i'm not surprised to see Permian on the list of core assets. we will see what that means for the rest of the Shales assets though...
You know how I know you're not in the oil and gas industry? Or even follow energy policy closely?Aston04 said:
Biden win may actually be good for a oil prices in medium term as they tie up production in the US. I prefer oil companies drilling outside USA.. Ones that also have lower break even levels..
I think what he means is he prefers conventional assets.
If he meant conventional, say conventional. He said outside the US which would exclude US conventional assets, which america needs to grow. The dude just wants us to return to the days of us scrambling for oil, not leading.Cyp0111 said:
I think what he means is he prefers conventional assets.
Shale is american ingenuity and capitalism breaking barriers in geopolitics. Its allowed for America to take on geopolitical issues it previously couldn't, and keeps the american economy humming without huge inflation. There's a reason Germany can't say anything bad about Russia, and it isn't because of WWII. It could suddenly be a very cold winter in Berlin if Putin wanted it to be.
Shale is the first time we've seen widespread economic growth without an energy price increase. But, shale is also a bubble where money was lit on fire by everyone who wasn't there first. If shale stops being a pressure release valve against oil prices someone else will be. And you don't want OPEC+ leading that charge.
Banning fracking/drilling on federal lands/freezing offshore permits only does three things:Aston04 said:
Biden win may actually be good for a oil prices in medium term as they tie up production in the US. I prefer oil companies drilling outside USA.. Ones that also have lower break even levels..
-Increases layoffs
-Increases oil prices but also inflation.
-Allows democrats to point to solar/wind as the answer.
Economies are powered on cheap energy. Watch even more manufacturing evaporate from america if natural gas quadruples.
I actually expect that the environmentalist will eventually target wind. Solar is probably safe. Nuclear comes after oil and gas, then wind. It will never stop.one MEEN Ag said:Banning fracking/drilling on federal lands/freezing offshore permits only does three things:Aston04 said:
Biden win may actually be good for a oil prices in medium term as they tie up production in the US. I prefer oil companies drilling outside USA.. Ones that also have lower break even levels..
-Increases layoffs
-Increases oil prices but also inflation.
-Allows democrats to point to solar/wind as the answer.
Economies are powered on cheap energy. Watch even more manufacturing evaporate from america if natural gas quadruples.
Don't think natural gas will quadruple just because there is a ton of coal seam gas (New Mexico, Michigan, parts of the Marcellus area, I'm sure a bunch of other places) that doesn't require fracking. I suppose if you believe blocking all drilling on federal lands then that wouldn't help, but just fracking won't give unlimited runway to natural gas prices.one MEEN Ag said:Banning fracking/drilling on federal lands/freezing offshore permits only does three things:Aston04 said:
Biden win may actually be good for a oil prices in medium term as they tie up production in the US. I prefer oil companies drilling outside USA.. Ones that also have lower break even levels..
-Increases layoffs
-Increases oil prices but also inflation.
-Allows democrats to point to solar/wind as the answer.
Economies are powered on cheap energy. Watch even more manufacturing evaporate from america if natural gas quadruples.
Don't think there is an equivalent in oil for non-frac wells. Maybe some salt domes? Not an engineer/geologist so I don't know how many of those are left onshore untapped.
Dude. Shale was subsidized by cheap debt and lit close to a trillion of investor capital on fire.
It may be American ingenuity but its was financed and has been proven to be snake oil in many basins.
It may be American ingenuity but its was financed and has been proven to be snake oil in many basins.
American Ingenuity usually is followed by American Greed. Rinse and repeat.Cyp0111 said:
Dude. Shale was subsidized by cheap debt and lit close to a trillion of investor capital on fire.
It may be American ingenuity but its was financed and has been proven to be snake oil in many basins.
And how much money did the dot com bubble light on fire? Yet, I still see tech companies playing an important role in the economy and thriving 20 years later. Moving forward, you're going to see smarter investments and less dumb money being thrown around. Just like after the dot com bubble. Or real estate bubble. No more land flipping for 80k an acre. More due diligence. Coronavirus will end one day just like SARS and MERV did. Demand will return and supply will be drawn down.Cyp0111 said:
Dude. Shale was subsidized by cheap debt and lit close to a trillion of investor capital on fire.
It may be American ingenuity but its was financed and has been proven to be snake oil in many basins.
Since 2014, every time oil had an upswing over $50 everyone rushed back into the market. Eventually, the market will rebalance. The dumb money tipping point will be higher now. $70? 80? Who knows. The end of 2021 takes all the oil companies through the end of their 2014, 7 year debt revolver. There might just be roaring demand right as supply slips off the books. If oil losses have scared every tom, dick and harry from forming a PE firm - good, but I still want american capitalism finding a way to be the pressure relief valve on demand.
Give me higher oil and gas prices over more american manufacturing, that doesn't support my paycheck.one MEEN Ag said:Banning fracking/drilling on federal lands/freezing offshore permits only does three things:Aston04 said:
Biden win may actually be good for a oil prices in medium term as they tie up production in the US. I prefer oil companies drilling outside USA.. Ones that also have lower break even levels..
-Increases layoffs
-Increases oil prices but also inflation.
-Allows democrats to point to solar/wind as the answer.
Economies are powered on cheap energy. Watch even more manufacturing evaporate from america if natural gas quadruples.
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