Keep an eye on Iran... political discord at the moment.

Add China's growth and the price will hover around $57-$62 all of 2018. Inventories here have fallen by almost 20% to 431 million barrels. Rig growth has been slow, but as of last week still around 715 or so. Production here stands at 9.75 million bpd. Hitting 10 will still take some time, plus add in this cold snap, things are starting off in the right direction....

time for another round of predictions. who was right for 2017?

Buck Compton said:

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Let's try this again. Click here for a link to the Google Form to submit your price prediction for the end of the first quarter of this year. (WTI spot price as of EOD March 31, 2017).

We actually did pretty good during the last quarter of 2016, with results analysis/stats to be posted soon.

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here's the form link but i can't access the guesses for everyone.

I predicted $54 I think. As for this year, I'll go with $63.58.

techno-ag said:

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Reserves keep going down, so there's that.

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I don't think so. With each new drilled well (damn near), you've proved up more locations....and benches.

I think he's referring to the overall inventory. I could be wrong....but I think that is what he was trying to say.

Comeby! said:

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techno-ag said:

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Reserves keep going down, so there's that.

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I don't think so. With each new drilled well (damn near), you've proved up more locations....and benches.

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Proved reserves in the U.S. declined in 2015 and 2016 due to writedowns and decreased development. I'd imagine we'll probably see another decline when the 2017 numbers come out too.

Ag2012 said:

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Comeby! said:

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techno-ag said:

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Reserves keep going down, so there's that.

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I don't think so. With each new drilled well (damn near), you've proved up more locations....and benches.

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Proved reserves in the U.S. declined in 2015 and 2016 due to writedowns and decreased development. I'd imagine we'll probably see another decline when the 2017 numbers come out too.

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This is the one aspect of the last 4 years I've never understood. Being in the Subsea sector we've always heard proven reserves matter a lot and contribute quite a bit to stock value and borrowing power.

Fracing doesn't seem to offer proven reserves in the same traditional vain and a lot of the big boys have drastically cut back on the exploration and proving of the large reserves typical of subsea fields.

Coupled with the quick turn and burn of fracing and we'll life being much shorter, I'm surprised big operators haven't seen near the stock and valuations hit as I thought they might during the downturn. Is anyone starting to talk or look at "proven reserves" differently now that fracing is making up such a large quantity per barrels drilled?

nu awlins ag said:

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I predicted $54 I think. As for this year, I'll go with $63.58.

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We should predict March 31 instead of Dec 31. I'll go with $61.50

Ag2012 said:

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Comeby! said:

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techno-ag said:

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Reserves keep going down, so there's that.

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I don't think so. With each new drilled well (damn near), you've proved up more locations....and benches.

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Proved reserves in the U.S. declined in 2015 and 2016 due to writedowns and decreased development. I'd imagine we'll probably see another decline when the 2017 numbers come out too.

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I bet they will be up. 12-month rolling average pricing is back up compared to the years you mentioned. Companies will have positive reserve additions just on better pricing alone. Plus more undeveloped cases will be economical, which means more PUDs added back on the books.

jbanda said:

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Today marks exactly 13 years in oil and gas for me. Let's see if I can eek out another 25 or so.

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I'll be 13 years in O&G next month haha, awesome

I hit just shy of 12 yrs... then I started over in Commercial construction.

I'll have 18 years in Feb. Hard to believe it has been that long.

Are we anywhere near the point at which the flow of fracked oil is steady and reliable enough for the industry to start converting domestic refineries to handle our light, sweet oil instead of exporting it and importing heavier foreign oil to refine?

halfastros81 said:

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Will be 37 yrs in Oil and Gas on June 1. I have been extremely fortunate. I can see the end of my O & G career from here.

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Congrats....I made it to just shy of 40... good luck . You probably made it thru this bust so hopefully you can leave on your own terms vs being shown the door.

The Original AG 76 said:

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halfastros81 said:

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Will be 37 yrs in Oil and Gas on June 1. I have been extremely fortunate. I can see the end of my O & G career from here.

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Congrats....I made it to just shy of 40... good luck . You probably made it thru this bust so hopefully you can leave on your own terms vs being shown the door.

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I was actually laid off during the bust but it was early enough (April 2015) that I was able to find another gig. It was in North Dakota but I jumped on it. While there, I dodged another layoff by taking a pay cut and going into sales during a really bad time to be in sales. Got back to Texas a few months ago and hope for at least another 25 years or so in the industry.

10 years in June...can't believe it's been that long

Yep, 10 in May for me...

We've been able to make it through the collapse in Fall '08-'09 and this most recent round.

16 years last month I was roughnecking on a Big Dog Drilling rig in the Permian. After living through that, I think I'll make it through anything. 10 years ago in October I went out on my own. So far, so good.

19 year in petrochemicals R&D. I have no idea what you guys are talking about most of the time...haven't even heard of a lot of the companies. But I check in every so often to see how my distant cousins are doing.

Over 25 years now and hoping for another 10-15 but it's not looking good at the moment.

11 years now for me. almost 10 of those in the pecten

Just finished 4 years, all deepwater. I started about 6 months before price started really declining and have made it through two major layoff so far.

Will probably stay here or the foreseeable future but am starting a side business and will see how that goes.

Going on 7 years now in the upstream. Started when oil was flying high and everyone was feeling good. Seven years later and I've survived about a half dozen layoff rounds and made 3 cross-country moves in order to keep steady employment. It's been a crazy ride but for some reason I don't want to jump off of the bus yet.

Bout to hit the big 5'er

Still got a little while....

Just completed my first year with an operator and loved it. Spent the previous 5 years on the outside looking in. Really hope to be here 20 years from now

5 years on 1/14. Survived the downturn and made a move in 2017 to a new gig that is going very well. Hope things stay like this for a while.

Talon2DSO said:

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Just completed my first year with an operator and loved it. Spent the previous 5 years on the outside looking in. Really hope to be here 20 years from now

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i want this, but in SA area

Just hit 12 years in November. 11 of those with an operator (the same one).

Who did you hire on with? Thought you had started your own firm?

My dad is on year 44 I think.