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Houston..we have a problem....

7,280,272 Views | 28678 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by TxAg20
TxAg20
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ktownag08 said:

Thoughts on APA? They've taken a beating since their earnings release, but I suspect that with them getting things moving on their Alpine High play they'll be bouncing back.

I don't think anything short of high oil prices will help APA. The Alpine High won't make up for their poor management. I think they need a regime change or need to be acquired.
Dr. Doctor
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Gulf LNG was rushed to be built in 2007. It was used 2 times. Import facility. Cost? $700 Million.


Now at one time it was the first to be used as an export facility (built and running), but they cannot figure out what they want to do (tolling station, set production, etc.) They have also rushed up the price to about $7 billion to convert. So now they are debating if they will move forward or not.

Rather than writing down the loss and moving on (missing the import due to shale/fracing), they are potentially doubling down (or 10x'ing down) on selling LNG on the open market. With no contracts.

I see LNG as a potential growing commodities market, but you have to have a plan. Some of the LNG plants planned in the US/N. America do not have a plan. And I have talked to probably about 5-6 project managers on those LNG plants. They have no plan (one did; but couldn't figure out which technology-way he wanted to go).

Most have walked in and said "I want to make LNG". And that's the end of their plan.


The ones being built now have buyers for majority of their production. Any additional production would be bonus sold on the open market. Or it is someone who has a contract with a buyer who is converting the origin of LNG from one plant (older, established) to the new one and hoping the older plant will sell on the open market. This model (having buyers) will work and be profitable.

Hawking LNG on the open market, hoping someone will buy it, I see as highly risky and not something you want to make bets on with $5-7 Billion in loans outstanding.

~egon
GarlandAg2012
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Ogre09 said:

Have we talked about BHP selling shale assets? Where are they operating? Who would be potential buyers? Did they jump in at the wrong time?

http://fortune.com/2017/08/21/bhp-sell-shale/
They bought in near the peak and have some Permian and Eagleford Assets. They bought Petrohawk in 2011 for $12.1 bn.

Have a friend who works there and there's a town hall today. Needless to say its not going well.

https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/07/14/bhp-billiton-to-buy-petrohawk-for-12-1-billion/?mcubz=0
TommyGun
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Ogre09 said:

Have we talked about BHP selling shale assets? Where are they operating? Who would be potential buyers? Did they jump in at the wrong time?

http://fortune.com/2017/08/21/bhp-sell-shale/

The long and short of what I've heard about BHP's onshore business from employees who have worked there or suppliers who do business with them:

- Paid too much for Petrohawk
- Added too many layers of management and general overhead
- Failed to retain legacy Petrohawk employees
- Slow and sometimes unwilling to change their approach to operating

nu awlins ag
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1 and 3 for sure....
Football&Finance
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TommyGun said:

Ogre09 said:

Have we talked about BHP selling shale assets? Where are they operating? Who would be potential buyers? Did they jump in at the wrong time?

http://fortune.com/2017/08/21/bhp-sell-shale/

The long and short of what I've heard about BHP's onshore business from employees who have worked there or suppliers who do business with them:

- Paid too much for Petrohawk
- Added too many layers of management and general overhead
- Failed to retain legacy Petrohawk employees
- Slow and sometimes unwilling to change their approach to operating


Sure, all of that may be true, but they built some really nice office space on Post Oak Blvd, so they have that going for them.






nu awlins ag
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Drive by it all the time. Like others, they started all this before the down turn and now it is less full than it was going to be. CoP, Shell, etc. all nice new digs...
sts7049
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we bought into eagle ford for about 2 billion, and sold for (i think) 600 million in 2014 i believe, before the real downturn hit. i imagine BHP will take quite a haircut on a sale.
Latigo
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LNG sure seems like a risky business. This is from an article I read recently:

"The total of approved export applications amounts to more than 54 bcf/d---75% of U.S. dry gas production. Daily U.S. dry gas production in 2016 was 72 bcf/d. Are we repeating the mistakes of LNG import in reverse?"
BiochemAg97
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Latigo said:

LNG sure seems like a risky business. This is from an article I read recently:

"The total of approved export applications amounts to more than 54 bcf/d---75% of U.S. dry gas production. Daily U.S. dry gas production in 2016 was 72 bcf/d. Are we repeating the mistakes of LNG import in reverse?"
Certainly sounds over like trying to overbuild to me.
Goose06
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BHP and Devon bought Petro hawk and Geosouthern around the same time and those 2 had lots of overlap and maybe even some joint operating arrangements. Seems both are looking to sell now. I wonder if they would consider jointly marketing their eagleford position to maximize the valuation?
jetch17
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BHP & Devon are JV'd in most of that Hawkville EF asset, BHP has been shopping the southern EF hawkville for a while now.
Latigo
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Shouldn't the shale producers be killing it right now? A few months ago people were posting articles on here about $35 break even. Smelled like b.s. and apparently it was.
Joseph Parrish
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Latigo said:

Shouldn't the shale producers be killing it right now? A few months ago people were posting articles on here about $35 break even. Smelled like b.s. and apparently it was.
I'm not sure you know how it works. Oil companies don't spend money to not make any profit and just break even.
IrishTxAggie
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Latigo said:

Shouldn't the shale producers be killing it right now? A few months ago people were posting articles on here about $35 break even. Smelled like b.s. and apparently it was.
They're not bleeding cash like they were. Plenty are making money and returning crews to the field. But if your idea of killing it is the good ol' days of the $90+, don't expect to feel the killing it anytime soon.
Latigo
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Joseph Parrish said:

Latigo said:

Shouldn't the shale producers be killing it right now? A few months ago people were posting articles on here about $35 break even. Smelled like b.s. and apparently it was.
I'm not sure you know how it works. Oil companies don't spend money to not make any profit and just break even.


I agree with you 100%. You missed the earlier exchanges on here.
Joseph Parrish
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ColinAggie said:

Latigo said:

Shouldn't the shale producers be killing it right now? A few months ago people were posting articles on here about $35 break even. Smelled like b.s. and apparently it was.
They're not bleeding cash like they were. Plenty are making money and returning crews to the field. But if your idea of killing it is the good ol' days of the $90+, don't expect to feel the killing it anytime soon.
I think if we see some stability around $50-$55, you'll see more spending. We just keep dipping back down lately. Some companies are still spending at these prices, but not everybody. And some hedged their production so they could have a more predictable cash flow.
Gordo14
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I mean if you overleverage yourself at the peak of the market then being able to make a lot of money and a good ROR on capital investment today might be irrelevant. They might still be making good money on wells they are drilling if you ignore the initial investment to buy the acreage.... In addition, it's my understanding that BHP is only selling the acreage due to activist investor pressure - not because they can't make money drilling the project on a well-by-well basis.
Joseph Parrish
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Gordo14 said:

I mean if you overleverage yourself at the peak of the market then being able to make a lot of money and a good ROR on capital investment today might be irrelevant. They might still be making good money on wells they are drilling if you ignore the initial investment to buy the acreage.... In addition, it's my understanding that BHP is only selling the acreage due to activist investor pressure - not because they can't make money drilling the project on a well-by-well basis.
That sounds crazy. I'd tell the activists to F off. Maybe in a more PC way if I was the PR department, but it'd still be the same end result.
Latigo
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I understand what you are saying but that is where the B.S. comes in. I can make a profit at anything if I get to decide which expenses count and which don't.
aTm_bomb
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Im at bhp and my 2 cents is we overpaid and couldn't retain petrohawk employees as they had an exodus to Halcon using the "in Floyd we trust" mentality. We them ran 30 rigs in eagleford chasing volumes and not value in Blackhawk before we realized we didn't know what we were doing and then prices plummeted.

The JV with Devon is in Black Hawk in the liquid rich regions.

Shale never aligned with BHPs tier 1 long life assets because the amount of evaluation/planning wasn't in line with the necessary agility for Shale.

The mothership in Australia has always been sensitive to Shale, requiring more detail and more pressure for free cash flow positive operations. This announcement isn't completely shocking news if you were paying attention in the office but the manner it was announced is clearly in response to the Elliot letter.

Petroleum Management still thinks the assets are good but the Aussies decided it wasn't a core asset in line with the other businesses. Conventional assets aren't in danger from what I can tell.

That's what i see and while i don't deal with engineers all day I see enough to get it.

Sad really as so many people have worked so hard to improve BHP onshore operations after starting at 0 really. A lot of upset people but it'll take a good while before they figure out their options and close a deal. I expect a few years before it's all done.
TommyGun
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Yeah hang in there man.

My wife worked in HR for BHP a few years back and she heard lots of complaints about how the Aussies ran the business. Her perception was that the mothership thought US shale was a cash cow at the time (pre downturn) and they could just plug and play with managers and directors coming over from Melbourne to get their international rotation checked off the list. It pissed off a lot guys who actually knew what they were doing and trying to make the business work. Not to mention they were getting passed over for promotions.
aggie_wes
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Sounds a lot like a Scottish company I used to work for.
Javelina
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Sounds exactly like a French firm I left.
LostInLA07
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Chevron's CEO to step down next month per the WSJ.
bkag9824
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LostInLA07 said:

Chevron's CEO to step down next month per the WSJ.


Evidently somebody let the cat out of the bag a wee bit early...
Gordo14
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Latigo said:

I understand what you are saying but that is where the B.S. comes in. I can make a profit at anything if I get to decide which expenses count and which don't.


You implied it's not possible to make money on unconventionals (basically). My point is it is if you don't pay too much for the acreage you are still printing money. So using BHP as an example of profitability on unconventionals when they overpaid for the acreage at the peak of the market is a bit of a red herring. It doesn't change the fact many oil companies are getting 40%-200% IRR (EOG in the Austin Chalk claims ~200%) developing unconventionals.
Latigo
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I wrote what I meant. I didn't imply anything. You stated they may be able to make money if they "ignore the initial investment to buy the acreage"
Gordo14
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Latigo said:

I wrote what I meant. I didn't imply anything. You stated they may be able to make money if they "ignore the initial investment to buy the acreage"



Many operators already owned acreage. Many others got in before the prices took off. Others bought acreage for a reasonable price to increase efficiency of capital by drilling longer laterals. Many companies are making money hand over fist developing this stuff... Just because BHP isn't, doesn't mean anything about other operators. You're just completely missing the point.
Bibendum 86
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74OA said:

All true, but the big energy companies wouldn't be rushing to complete five new export terminals at a cost of billions if they didn't see a robust overseas market for LNG. In addition to strongly growing demand in China, South America (both facilitated by the new Panama Canal) and non-pipeline countries in Europe (which is adding LNG import terminals), US domestic gas consumption appears to be growing by leaps and bounds, too: GAS
Don't fall into the trap of thinking that if a big multinational thinks it's a good investment that the deal is bulletproof. There are plenty of multi-millionaires or more who have made their money taking advantage of the fact that the big energy companies reach for the big, high-capex fruit like Tyrannosaurus Rex and forget that their arm are too short to get all of the fruit off the tree.

XOM, Qatar, COP, Total, BP, Shell, BG, CVX all spent billions of dollars to import LNG into the US. Once Brother George Mitchell's concept of horizontal drilling into shale formations with precision and hydraulic fracturing was proven up -- and ***oshima got wiped out by an earthquake -- US energy prices fell so hard and so fast versus alternatives that there was no arbitrage between extracting worthless gas from some reservoir in some miserable backwater for export to the US. The national champions spent BILLIONS of dollars every year for the option to bring LNG into the US but never made a nickel to offset those fixed costs.

Charif Souki, who could sell ice to Eskimos and condoms to cloistered nuns, has made money on the LNG import craze in the 2000s and now the export craze. His customers are the importers who don't have local resources -- the idiot Spaniards, JKT, India -- all demand side. I include Shell via BG as demand side because of their JKT obligations and the gefucht supply deals they have with Equitorial Guinea, Nigeria and Egypt.

That's probably too much inside baseball, so let me just put this on the table: global LNG demand is a function of national GDP adjusted for carbon and filtered through infrastructure. Supply has historically been sourced from miserable backwaters in which methane is a waste product, only present because of extraction of higher value commodities like NGLs, crude or coal. Look at RasGas and Qatar and the Pars asset, Trinidad or Queensland. Baltics, Snoevit, Sakhalin.

Of those resources, all are remote without viable pipeline gas markets. US produces 70 bcf/d and burns less than that -- but retire a dozen coal plants and have an average winter that puts wind and solar out of the mix, then staple on a trailing hot summer -- US gas prices will make export absolutely inviable.

Which opens up another arbitrage opportunity. LNG can be a fun business if you're fixed costs are low, your charter brokers are good and you bribe the JKT cartel enough to see their tenders. The full path economics are tough to solve over any horizon.
Comeby!
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Pretty solid post. We need to talk sometime.
La Bamba
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Fuzzy Dunlop said:

On another note, has anyone heard about Whiting being up for sale? I've heard two things: 1)they are pulling out of North Dakota and, 2)they are for sale.

Also hearing US Well Services is up for sale.
On the USWS note, where'd you hear that? This is interesting to me....
Fuzzy Dunlop
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La Bamba said:

Fuzzy Dunlop said:

On another note, has anyone heard about Whiting being up for sale? I've heard two things: 1)they are pulling out of North Dakota and, 2)they are for sale.

Also hearing US Well Services is up for sale.
On the USWS note, where'd you hear that? This is interesting to me....
I heard it in a sales conference call within my company. I also saw it in a sales report. I haven't gotten any confirmation so I don't see it as viable, although I could be wrong.
Premium
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So what effect will Harvey have on oil and gas? Oil isn't jumping at all...
Bibendum 86
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Premium said:

So what effect will Harvey have on oil and gas? Oil isn't jumping at all...
Probably none. I think hurricanes are bearish these days anyway; knocking out demand from petchem etc has a greater effect than disruption of the relatively small amount of offshore production, at least for gas.
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