74OA said:
All true, but the big energy companies wouldn't be rushing to complete five new export terminals at a cost of billions if they didn't see a robust overseas market for LNG. In addition to strongly growing demand in China, South America (both facilitated by the new Panama Canal) and non-pipeline countries in Europe (which is adding LNG import terminals), US domestic gas consumption appears to be growing by leaps and bounds, too: GAS
Don't fall into the trap of thinking that if a big multinational thinks it's a good investment that the deal is bulletproof. There are plenty of multi-millionaires or more who have made their money taking advantage of the fact that the
big energy companies reach for the big, high-capex fruit like Tyrannosaurus Rex and forget that their arm are too short to get all of the fruit off the tree.
XOM, Qatar, COP, Total, BP, Shell, BG, CVX all spent billions of dollars to import LNG into the US. Once Brother George Mitchell's concept of horizontal drilling into shale formations with precision and hydraulic fracturing was proven up -- and ***oshima got wiped out by an earthquake -- US energy prices fell so hard and so fast versus alternatives that there was no arbitrage between extracting worthless gas from some reservoir in some miserable backwater for export to the US. The national champions spent BILLIONS of dollars every year for the option to bring LNG into the US but never made a nickel to offset those fixed costs.
Charif Souki, who could sell ice to Eskimos and condoms to cloistered nuns, has made money on the LNG import craze in the 2000s and now the export craze. His customers are the importers who don't have local resources -- the idiot Spaniards, JKT, India -- all demand side. I include Shell via BG as demand side because of their JKT obligations and the gefucht supply deals they have with Equitorial Guinea, Nigeria and Egypt.
That's probably too much inside baseball, so let me just put this on the table: global LNG demand is a function of national GDP adjusted for carbon and filtered through infrastructure. Supply has historically been sourced from miserable backwaters in which methane is a waste product, only present because of extraction of higher value commodities like NGLs, crude or coal. Look at RasGas and Qatar and the Pars asset, Trinidad or Queensland. Baltics, Snoevit, Sakhalin.
Of those resources, all are remote without viable pipeline gas markets. US produces 70 bcf/d and burns less than that -- but retire a dozen coal plants and have an average winter that puts wind and solar out of the mix, then staple on a trailing hot summer -- US gas prices will make export absolutely inviable.
Which opens up another arbitrage opportunity. LNG can be a fun business if you're fixed costs are low, your charter brokers are good and you bribe the JKT cartel enough to see their tenders. The full path economics are tough to solve over any horizon.