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techno-ag
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In reply to nu awlins ag • 3:21p, 4/6/17
AG
Demand should rise, and that's good. And I freely admit I'm just an observer and no expert. But from what I've seen, the technology resulting from being shut out of vast federal holdings is a huge paradigm shift in production. Producers keep finding ways to profit on cheap oil. There is no incentive to slow production when you can stay in the black at 40-50/bbl.

The days of consistent 80-100 are over from what I can see. Certainly spikes may occur, certainly a weak dollar or inflation can drive the price up. But the cat is out of the bag so far as production technology.
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Dr. Doctor
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 3:43p, 4/6/17
AG

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Inventories Still rising. Doesn't appear OPEC cuts have had much impact. I think it is game over for OPEC.
I suspect we're looking at years if not decades of cheap oil.
Population is growing, not declining. Oil/gas are still cheaper and more efficient than solar/wind etc. Demand will only increase over the years, not decrease. More abundant oil/gas still makes it very efficient to operate cars, trucks, etc. Out of a 42 gallon drum of crude, roughly 19 of it goes to make fuel, the rest for other things, so the need/demand will be there, just in different areas of consumption/use. Natural gas demand will rise as a very cheap source since there is a lot of it out there.
Oil is currently designed to make gasoline because of demand. This can be changed to diesel or other fuels with changes in catalysts. While it cannot be 100% changed to other fuels, but you can shift the product cuts. When gasoline demand falls, the cuts will change.

Quote:
Given they are already using mopeds and such, there is some semblance of a hydrocarbon distribution system. Probably not pipe, but more truck/train. Inefficient, yes. Undersized to meet demand of a growing vehicle base, yes.

In most of there countries, the electrical grid is inadequate for current needs and needs significant improvements without adding electric cars to the mix. That will be an impediment to a rapid adoption of plug in cars.

On the other hand, if you can bypass the grid altogether with an at home power generation system to charge the vehicle, that would bypass both issues assuming cost makes sense.

I doubt they skip gen 1 (HC) completely, but they will likely be ahead of US in adoption of gen 2 (electric) at least as a percent of new cars purchased. That assumes they purchase new cars rather than just get used HC vehicles from developed areas.

Also keep in mind that the lastest rapid charging battery tech is not likely to be in a locally made cost effective vehicle anytime soon for a lot of these places, whereas a cheap IC motor is certainly doable.
As far as cars go, I could see as developing countries get more money, they trade up from a moped to a car. But if the cars are electric vs. ICE, I could see electric cars as more as a status thing (think Prius in CA).


I was making the point/assumption that if (in particular India) wanted to do a great infrastructure problem AND solve a societal issue would be to upgrade the power system. It could be a dual purpose project; one potential windfall is that the power plants would/could be based on LNG. This would be done to follow the Paris Accord.


I agree that the batteries are currently not local, but I have read about some grid storage ones that are a bit more local and use less crazy chemicals (not lead).

~egon
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Aggielandma12
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In reply to techno-ag • 5:22p, 4/6/17
AG
techno-ag said:
Demand should rise, and that's good. And I freely admit I'm just an observer and no expert. But from what I've seen, the technology resulting from being shut out of vast federal holdings is a huge paradigm shift in production. Producers keep finding ways to profit on cheap oil. There is no incentive to slow production when you can stay in the black at 40-50/bbl.

The days of consistent 80-100 are over from what I can see. Certainly spikes may occur, certainly a weak dollar or inflation can drive the price up. But the cat is out of the bag so far as production technology.


Another middle east war appears to be brewing. If we attack Syria my guess oil jumps to $10 to $15 bucks in a week
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Skillet Shot
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8:15p, 4/6/17
Word of another layoff tomorrow. Wish me luck.
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Latigo
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8:28p, 4/6/17
Sorry to hear that. Good luck.
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sts7049
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In reply to Aggielandma12 • 8:34p, 4/6/17
AG
guess we'll find out tomorrow
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BMach
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8:56p, 4/6/17
AG
Annnnnd we're firing on Syria...
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Zemira
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In reply to BMach • 9:02p, 4/6/17
AG
BMach said:
Annnnnd we're firing on Syria...


Seriously? They rattled and attacked with the sabers that fast?
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gougler08
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In reply to Zemira • 9:06p, 4/6/17
AG
Zemira said:
BMach said:
Annnnnd we're firing on Syria...


Seriously? They rattled and attacked with the sabers that fast?


Looks like we blew up the air field that they launched the chemical attacks from
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Zemira
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In reply to gougler08 • 9:11p, 4/6/17
AG
Just shocking after the last do nothing line in the sand administration.

I really don't want to go to war in Syria but the chemical attack was ghastly.

So what do we think this means for oil prices?
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teecoy
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9:13p, 4/6/17
AG
Up, up, and away!
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Aggielandma12
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9:14p, 4/6/17
AG
go buy a new boat
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RGV AG
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9:15p, 4/6/17
AG
Not an expert, nor very even knowledgeable about the energy sector, but I do live and work in the third world, and have for most of my life. The one big factor I haven't seen mentioned nor considered on this thread about the third world using alternative fuels and energy sources is the development of transmission infrastructure for the vast populaces. Cities in the third world can probably catch or be close to most of the first world, but the drop off after that is gonna be fierce.

The US, and likely most of Western Europe, are the only countries that I am aware of where there is stout, active, and likely functional public sector guidance and involvement in transmission and distribution of things like electric lines, substations, and other infrastructure. More often than not in the third world if you really want an electric line or a pole transformer you are going to have to put it in yourself, and at great cost. Thus, most of the those coming out of abject poverty to a manageable level of poverty are not going to spend what little they have on chipping in for electric lines or other infrastructure. Much less are there going to be opportunities for things such as charging stations and other needed services. Again, this is my opinion.

Also factor in that much of the third world, at least in Latin America, is still powered by bunker fuel/Natural Gas generating plants, and they are now adding more capacity after getting real squeezed for several years. I want to say the last figures I have heard was that 75% of LatAm's electric generation was fossil fuel driven. Electrical rates in most of the developing world are sky high compared to the US and Western Europe, and fossil fuels are still the cheapest I do believe. I don't believe the economies of the third world can support the direct, or indirect, taxation to develop the alternative methods, both in generation and transmission, while also having a populace try and get out of poverty. Fossil fuels will likely remain very important to energy in the third world, again my opinion.
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Zemira • 6:01a, 4/7/17
AG
Zemira said:
Just shocking after the last do nothing line in the sand administration.

I really don't want to go to war in Syria but the chemical attack was ghastly.

So what do we think this means for oil prices?
1) Syria is already at war (war in Syria already priced in)
2) one strike engagement in an area where we have been somewhat already engaged

any impact on oil prices will be short term psychological effect of Pres announcing missile strikes where previous Pres didn't talk about drone bombing.

What it does signal is this Pres is more likely to publicly announce engagements (as a deterrent). The public pronouncements of additional strikes (in Syria or elsewhere) may have additional pricing effects, more so than quiet strikes by drones all over the ME.
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aggie028
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In reply to RGV AG • 7:23a, 4/7/17
People talking about poor countries skipping fossil fuels for renewables probably haven't stepped foot in a third world country. Their ideas are inconceivable to me. These countries don't have the ability to protect companies - more electricity gets stolen than paid for - an advantage of fossil fuels that most don't even consider because they don't understand how poorly managed these countries are. Our lawyers suck in general but theirs can't do anything for the good of the masses. Corruption at the top and masses of people with nothing to lose results in a broken market. No one is going to take the 100+ year view - it's here and now and that means fossil fuels.
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1876er
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In reply to Aggielandma12 • 8:10a, 4/7/17
AG
Aggielandma12 said:
techno-ag said:
Demand should rise, and that's good. And I freely admit I'm just an observer and no expert. But from what I've seen, the technology resulting from being shut out of vast federal holdings is a huge paradigm shift in production. Producers keep finding ways to profit on cheap oil. There is no incentive to slow production when you can stay in the black at 40-50/bbl.

The days of consistent 80-100 are over from what I can see. Certainly spikes may occur, certainly a weak dollar or inflation can drive the price up. But the cat is out of the bag so far as production technology.


Another middle east war appears to be brewing. If we attack Syria my guess oil jumps to $10 to $15 bucks in a week

A war in Venezuela appears to be brewing and it hasn't had much impact on prices. Syria won't even move the needle. Syria produces as much oil as Papua New Guinea and Austria, which isn't much.
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74OA
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In reply to TxAg20 • 8:35a, 4/7/17
AG
TxAg20 said:
If you really want a deep look into future demand I think this is the best information available:
http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/outlook-for-energy/2017/2017-outlook-for-energy.pdf

I have no affiliation with ExxonMobil.
Great find. From the discussion here, few bothered to inform themselves by reading it, though.........
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DonaldFDraper
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 8:38a, 4/7/17
AG
Good luck and Godspeed!

You work at Range, correct?
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Skillet Shot
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11:39a, 4/7/17
welp, right when I thought we made it through the worst. If anyone is hiring engineers, please let me know.
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Legal Custodian
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 12:22p, 4/7/17
AG
Skillet Shot said:
welp, right when I thought we made it through the worst. If anyone is hiring engineers, please let me know.
We are hiring some different engineers here. Oil Field Service company.

What kind of engineering work are you looking for?
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Skillet Shot
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12:33p, 4/7/17
I have 3 years operations experience in production, completions and some drilling. Ideally I will land with another operator, but I am considering all options at this point.
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 1:40p, 4/7/17
AG
Just got an email yesterday from a recruiter looking for a Completions Engineer for a PE backed company out of N Dallas focusing on the Haynesville. Pretty sure it's Covey Park. If that strikes your interest I can get you contact info.
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Legal Custodian
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2:21p, 4/7/17
AG
Fair enough Skillet, let me know whenever you want to try the service route and I'll see what I can do to help out.

For what it's worth, I've heard great things about Covey Park as a company. They're definitely growing too.
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Ulrich
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In reply to RGV AG • 2:48p, 4/7/17
I don't think the RGV is technically third world.
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RK
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2:49p, 4/7/17
AG
it's a Whataburger away from being so...
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Skillet Shot
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In reply to BlackGoldAg2011 • 3:09p, 4/7/17
Very interested. Please pass along, thanks!

skilletshot.texags@gmail.com
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BlackGoldAg2011
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In reply to Skillet Shot • 3:41p, 4/7/17
AG
email sent
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Skillet Shot
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In reply to BlackGoldAg2011 • 4:37p, 4/7/17
Thanks
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nu awlins ag
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In reply to techno-ag • 9:55p, 4/7/17
AG
techno-ag said:
Demand should rise, and that's good. And I freely admit I'm just an observer and no expert. But from what I've seen, the technology resulting from being shut out of vast federal holdings is a huge paradigm shift in production. Producers keep finding ways to profit on cheap oil. There is no incentive to slow production when you can stay in the black at 40-50/bbl.

The days of consistent 80-100 are over from what I can see. Certainly spikes may occur, certainly a weak dollar or inflation can drive the price up. But the cat is out of the bag so far as production technology.
Well, for one thing it is not the "producers" finding ways, it's the service companies rather bringing the technology to the table. BP is basically going to go with what the service providers bring rather than their own
"in house ways" which was a lot more expensive to begin with and this comes from a mgr. in the GOM. Secondly, there has never been a consistent price of $80-$100. You are talking about a few years from 2011 or so to 2014 and 2007 to around 2009. These were exceptions. Before that, prices were in the $30-$40 range for years.
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techno-ag
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In reply to nu awlins ag • 10:26p, 4/7/17
AG
OK. So it's been cheap more so than expensive over the years. 1970s excluded.
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74OA
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In reply to nu awlins ag • 11:47a, 4/8/17
AG
nu awlins ag said:
techno-ag said:
Demand should rise, and that's good. And I freely admit I'm just an observer and no expert. But from what I've seen, the technology resulting from being shut out of vast federal holdings is a huge paradigm shift in production. Producers keep finding ways to profit on cheap oil. There is no incentive to slow production when you can stay in the black at 40-50/bbl.

The days of consistent 80-100 are over from what I can see. Certainly spikes may occur, certainly a weak dollar or inflation can drive the price up. But the cat is out of the bag so far as production technology.
Well, for one thing it is not the "producers" finding ways, it's the service companies rather bringing the technology to the table. BP is basically going to go with what the service providers bring rather than their own
"in house ways" which was a lot more expensive to begin with and this comes from a mgr. in the GOM. Secondly, there has never been a consistent price of $80-$100. You are talking about a few years from 2011 or so to 2014 and 2007 to around 2009. These were exceptions. Before that, prices were in the $30-$40 range for years.
Very true. People forget that $80+ prices are the anomaly, not today's prices which are a return to the historical norm. History
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drill4oil78
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In reply to 1876er • 6:34p, 4/8/17
AG
1876er said:
Aggielandma12 said:
techno-ag said:
Demand should rise, and that's good. And I freely admit I'm just an observer and no expert. But from what I've seen, the technology resulting from being shut out of vast federal holdings is a huge paradigm shift in production. Producers keep finding ways to profit on cheap oil. There is no incentive to slow production when you can stay in the black at 40-50/bbl.

The days of consistent 80-100 are over from what I can see. Certainly spikes may occur, certainly a weak dollar or inflation can drive the price up. But the cat is out of the bag so far as production technology.


Another middle east war appears to be brewing. If we attack Syria my guess oil jumps to $10 to $15 bucks in a week

A war in Venezuela appears to be brewing and it hasn't had much impact on prices. Syria won't even move the needle. Syria produces as much oil as Papua New Guinea and Austria, which isn't much.
PNG has one of the largest if not largest NG reserves in the world. Exxon now has control of most of the reserves now.
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1876er
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9:46a, 4/9/17
AG
I'm familiar with PNGLNG. They still don't produce much crude.
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drill4oil78
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In reply to 1876er • 12:50p, 4/9/17
AG
1876er said:
I'm familiar with PNGLNG. They still don't produce much crude.
They don't sell that much gas either considering their reserves, but their oil equivalent production well exceeds Syria. Exxon has the LNG plant and now controls the majority of reserves. I consulted for InterOil in PNG in 2015-2016, their last few years before Exxon gained control of them. InterOil had huge gas well discoveries that will also produce substantial condensate once these fields are developed.

Just saying don't classify PNG as a Syria type producer. PNG has big potential while Syria has zero.
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Motis B Totis
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7:20a, 4/12/17
AG
Oil prices are back up...and the thread goes quiet! I'm noticing a lot of movement now company to company of people that made it through layoffs.
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