Yeah I think that's still Harris County. You can see it right off of I-10. I'm not sure who all of the suppliers are but Im sure the JV partners are involved

Surging US shale supply continues to replace OPEC cuts:
Prices Down Again
Shale 2.0

"EOG, part of Enron Corp. until 1999, now drills horizontal wells in West Texas more than a mile long in 20 days, down from 38 days in 2014. It has done it in as few as 10 days. It estimates it can get at least a 30% rate of return on wells at $40 a barrel, and that at $50 it can boost oil production at least 15% a year through 2020."

Any update on the results of the end of Q1 oil price is right game?

SC-AG said:

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Any update on the results of the end of Q1 oil price is right game?

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I'll post tonight once I get a chance. I'll be in meeting me until 7:30 or 8.

Lots of participation though, I think there were like 36 entries.

Closed at 50.60 I believe. In our group, it rallied enough for the winner to change in the final afternoon of trading...cutoff number was 50.31 I think.

Anyone going to the DUG happy hour at 5?

Skillet Shot said:

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Anyone going to the DUG happy hour at 5?

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I'll be there. Email is in my profile if you want to hit me up

Any out of work mud engineers with at least 2-3 years of field experience living around the Houston area?
I may have an opportunity...

ETA: if you're currently a mud engineer, fit the above description and are looking for a change, I'd like to talk.

If you had asked this 3 weeks ago I could've said yes. However I'm only consulting so I'd still be willing to hear about your opportunity.

What's a good email for you?

Thanks.

Email sent

Inventories Still rising. Doesn't appear OPEC cuts have had much impact. I think it is game over for OPEC.

Decades? Really?

Mexico running out of reserves??

techno-ag said:

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1876er said:

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Inventories Still rising. Doesn't appear OPEC cuts have had much impact. I think it is game over for OPEC.

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I suspect we're looking at years if not decades of cheap oil.

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Everyone in 2013 thought we'd never see oil below $80 again. Production is increasing quickly but so is demand. The developing world has tremendous upside potential in terms of energy demand and they're not gonna be jumping straight to Priuses and solar panels. The other major oil exporters are a backwards, repressive shariah state in the most unstable region in the world and a corrupt superpower run by a sociopathic former KGB despot who is pretty openly at odds with the west. Domestically, the heart of our pipeline and refining system as well as a large portion of our production is located in a Gulf that is long overdue for a hurricane. Supply ain't always such a sure thing either, fraccing or no.

Ag2012 said:

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techno-ag said:

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1876er said:

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Inventories Still rising. Doesn't appear OPEC cuts have had much impact. I think it is game over for OPEC.

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I suspect we're looking at years if not decades of cheap oil.

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Everyone in 2013 thought we'd never see oil below $80 again. Production is increasing quickly but so is demand. The developing world has tremendous upside potential in terms of energy demand and they're not gonna be jumping straight to Priuses and solar panels. The other major oil exporters are a backwards, repressive shariah state in the most unstable region in the world and a corrupt superpower run by a sociopathic former KGB despot who is pretty openly at odds with the west. Domestically, the heart of our pipeline and refining system as well as a large portion of our production is located in a Gulf that is long overdue for a hurricane. Supply ain't always such a sure thing either, fraccing or no.

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Why wouldn't they? Serious question.

I know they won't be able to completely bypass oil consumption, but with electric/hybrid car technology making the strides it is, and the growing global push for alternative energy generation, I'm not sure demand for oil from those developing countries is going to be like it was for other countries.

I think plastics and petrochemicals might be bigger drivers of oil demand in emerging markets over the next few decades than fuel uses, and I'm not nearly well versed enough in those aspects of the industry to know whether or not those segments can drive demand as strongly as fuel demand has in past decades.

Thoughts from people smarter than me?

I heard a presentation about a year ago from the P66 economist and he made a pretty good case for why the developing countries don't immediately go straight to high fuel efficient vehicles. I do not remember the details, but he certainly would agree with the assertion that developing countries do NOT go immediately to fuel efficient vehicles.

I would imagine due to lack of infrastructure for renewables, plus the unreliability of it delivering a steady energy supply.

Its not a choice for the developing world to choose between an F150 or prius. Its a choice between a 1950's version of a Fiat and a prius. No environmental or safety regulations.

cost wise new technology cant compete, and these are people just now getting disposable income.

Sorry, I'm not sure I explained my thinking clearly.

The biggest obstacle the developed world faces in embracing new energy is the fact that we have 100 years worth of infrastructure development geared towards fossil fuels. Like the gas stations on every corner, but very few car charging stations. And it's going to take a lot of tear-down, and re-build to change that.

For a country that is building up new infrastructure from scratch in most areas, I would think it would be designed, with new technologies in mind. And even if they arent used immediately, the switchover would end up being much easier. If I'm designing a highway system throughout India today, I'm absolutely going to do so with electric charging infrastructure in mind, even it I don't expect it to be used immediately.

Like China, who went all in on coal to get their economy off the ground, but is pivoting towards other fuel sources like wind and hydro now that they can. Emerging markets will still need oil in the beginning, but I'm not sure it's going to be a lasting demand, maybe only a decade or so, and then may end up beating us to the next step.

Ok, I'll hang up and listen.

On board with all of that, though things like wind and solar that are not constant suppliers are helped out a lot by the dispersion we're seeing in electric production. On the way out are the days of giant plants servicing large loads. Smaller plants scattered around that can spin up to meet production or not as required help make the less reliable sources like wind more tenable. When wind production is good, demand can be reduced from the other plants, and they can spin up on bad wind days. Panda is building these small plants like crazy.

Completely agree. You'll see much more of a distributed model. Hell, solar still works very well on a small scale already for low load applications.

This is generally even done at the static production site. For example, when you change rods out in a nuclear plant, you shut off the boiling water reactors. Replacing them are massive diesel generators.

Buck Compton said:

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Completely agree. You'll see much more of a distributed model. Hell, solar still works very well on a small scale already for low load applications.

This is generally even done at the static production site. For example, when you change rods out in a nuclear plant, you shut off the boiling water reactors. Replacing them are massive diesel generators.

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We're years out from buying our next house or having to replace a roof, but a few years of proofing the system in the marketplace and I think I'll be all in on the Tesla solar roof and home battery.

Buck Compton said:

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If anyone really wanted to put a hurt on fossil fuels, they would push for nuclear energy... Not renewables.

The historic problem with electricity is that it is unbelievably difficult to store. When you can store it, it takes some very disgusting chemicals and compounds to make it happen. These things do not come cheap. For transportation specifically, there is no solution to "car charging stations". You don't just swoop in and re-charge quickly.

You mention the alternative energies, but again, let's play the cost game. Solar and wind electricity just cannot compare to the efficiency of hydrocarbons. Even with massive subsidies many of these companies can't stay afloat. Again, the problem your grid faces is transmitting and storing energy from non-constant sources.

We have quite a few dams in the United States. We have pretty much dammed up all we can reasonably be expected to. That provides about 2.5% of our total electricity load. See the chart below for just how much more investment would need to be made in the United States.

A free market doesn't jump to renewables independent of pollution penalties and constraints because they just aren't economical compared to other sources.

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I appreciate the response.

New generation electric cars can actually get to ~80% charge in about 30 minutes, and I expect that will only get faster as the technology improves.

As for energy sources, I understand the current economics, but economies don't develop overnight. It will will be a 30 year process for countries that are currently set to emerge. How sure are we that hydrocarbons will continue to be the more economical choice for an emerging economy beyond the initial 5-10 years of development? Do you think increased demand for natural gas burned in power plants could be enough to offset a potential decrease in demand for gasoline/diesel as auto fuel, in terms of keeping the O&G industry rolling?

I don't mean to sound argumentative. I had one good year in O&G before prices crashed, I loved the work, and I would like to go back at some point, but I'm not sure how stable (or lucrative) the industry is going to end up being over the next few decades. Just trying to get some perspective from people who have been around longer than me, because it seems like some of the technological advancements we're seeing could be game changers.

I agree that the efficiency of solar/wind cannot compete with hydrocarbons, but if you can store electricity, this starts to become less of an issue. Nuclear efficiency blows HC's out of the water, if you look at the power per sq. ft.

In regards to technologies, look at telephones. In the US (and Europe) we built copper lines for telephone, then built up cell towers. Now we have competing interests as to what we do for phones and which takes priority. But in Africa/Asia, they never built copper lines. They skipped the 1st step and went to the 2nd (cellular). Lower costs (less infrastructure, plus they bought our 1st/2nd gen systems (while we installed 3rd/4th)) and quicker installation.

I could see electric cars making more of an impact in the future to developing countries. You have a car/charger system that is more or less 'self contained' and then it can be implemented around the world. Plus, a large portion of the developing world currently uses mopeds (think India) or three-wheeled taxis. Moving the mopeds to a car system would require a massive infrastructure (gas stations, pipelines, etc). If you are going to have to build the infrastructure (again, think India), why not build a dual purpose system (electrical system) vs. a single use system (HC pipeline). For example, India has a massively inadequate electrical grid. So by upgrading the electrical grid, they could help the population AND provide 'fuel' for the next generation vehicles.

~egon

Given they are already using mopeds and such, there is some semblance of a hydrocarbon distribution system. Probably not pipe, but more truck/train. Inefficient, yes. Undersized to meet demand of a growing vehicle base, yes.

In most of there countries, the electrical grid is inadequate for current needs and needs significant improvements without adding electric cars to the mix. That will be an impediment to a rapid adoption of plug in cars.

On the other hand, if you can bypass the grid altogether with an at home power generation system to charge the vehicle, that would bypass both issues assuming cost makes sense.

I doubt they skip gen 1 (HC) completely, but they will likely be ahead of US in adoption of gen 2 (electric) at least as a percent of new cars purchased. That assumes they purchase new cars rather than just get used HC vehicles from developed areas.

Also keep in mind that the lastest rapid charging battery tech is not likely to be in a locally made cost effective vehicle anytime soon for a lot of these places, whereas a cheap IC motor is certainly doable.

techno-ag said:

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1876er said:

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Inventories Still rising. Doesn't appear OPEC cuts have had much impact. I think it is game over for OPEC.

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I suspect we're looking at years if not decades of cheap oil.

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Population is growing, not declining. Oil/gas are still cheaper and more efficient than solar/wind etc. Demand will only increase over the years, not decrease. More abundant oil/gas still makes it very efficient to operate cars, trucks, etc. Out of a 42 gallon drum of crude, roughly 19 of it goes to make fuel, the rest for other things, so the need/demand will be there, just in different areas of consumption/use. Natural gas demand will rise as a very cheap source since there is a lot of it out there.