jake2011 said:

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BiochemAg97 said:

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jake2011 said:

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If you don't think Saudi could flood the market with oil again and cause the price to drop then you are too optimistic. Not to mention that the developed world is due for a recession (currently second longest recovery in US) which would hurt oil demand. Another significant decline in oil prices would hurt the US shale producers. Not saying it will happen but a double dip in oil prices could definitely happen coinciding with a recession in the U.S.

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Saudi can, but would they?

Second longest recovery means due for a recession is an interesting take. We certainly took a long time to get out of the last recession, so are you looking at time from bottom to top, bottom to bottom, or time from recovered to next bottom?

Not saying another recession in the US isn't likely. Fed is raising interest rates into potential weakness, we have an upcoming debt ceiling showdown, and Trump's budget that isn't exactly moving towards a balanced budget. However, the only predictor I would take from the Obama administrations missteps that slowed recovery from the last recession is that the federal government is more likely than not to make more missteps that negatively impact the US economy, regardless of who is in office.

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I'm just giving facts. Since World War II, this is the second longest expansion without a recession since the 90s expansion. No one knows when this expansion will end but it is long in the tooth historically speaking. Natural business cycles do exist no matter how much central banks have tried to suppress them the last several years with artificially low rates and QE. There will be unintended consequences from this worldwide monetary experiment. The Fed is behind the curve and is desperately trying to get a few interest rate increases in so they will have some ammo for the next downturn. No one knows exactly what they will be but they probably won't be good and a recession would hurt oil demand. This is coupled with the fact that the US is producing more oil than ever and now has a pro drilling president which will encourage more production down the line. Saudi can produce cheaper than us and a sustained double dip in the oil market would not be good for domestic E&P companies. All of those are potential future negatives for oil prices or at the very least argue against another big rise in oil prices in the near future.

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It's true that SA can produce oil at ~$10 a barrel, but they need prices at over $100 to sustain their economy at the standard of living their people are accustomed to. For almost two years, SA has been pulling billions a month out of their national currency reserves to offset their oil revenue losses. That can't go on for much longer without serious consequences, but every time they get prices to move upward, that just encourages idling US fracking to kick into gear and drive supply back up and prices back down. The larger point is SA is an oil dependent economy and we're not so, if anything, low energy prices probably work to stave off recession here.

So race to bankruptcy at these prices.

My fear with SA is that they are so dependent on oil to sustain their opulent standard of living, chaos will ensue once they are unable to sustain that way of life. The whole area becomes a post-apocalyptic world once their collective economies collapse. I feel, from a geopolitical perspective, we need them to not completely **** the bed and play nice

But if Saudi lowers production while everybody else maintains current production or increases production, Saudi loses even more money.

Saudi doesn't have the control they used to when it comes to cuts. Their people better start getting used to their new lifestyle or they will end up like Venezuela.

Starting to get restless job searching.... Any leads for ops/completions engineer? Currently in Houston but willing to relocate.

Vernada said:

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nu awlins ag said:

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US Bank Jefferies said that the market is undersupplied and if OPEC did extend cuts past June, draw down inventories would take place and the price could hit $60 by the end of the year. Very confusing, because in one sentence, the US is producing more adding to the supply thus driving down prices AS WELL they are saying the production cuts are working to bring the price up. Does not make a whole lot of since...

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Maybe they meant:

CURRENTLY supply is adding (at implied current demand)

BUT

IF Saudi maintains cuts in June (and implied increased summer demand) THEN draw downs would take place.


?? just kinda guessing.

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Sounds about right, but nothing in the article lead me to believe that. Again, these guys speak out of both sides of their mouths.

jaggiemaggie said:

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Starting to get restless job searching.... Any leads for ops/completions engineer? Currently in Houston but willing to relocate.

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Try Antero here in West Virginia. I've seen their HR rep advertise on Linkedin for engineers. Also take a look at EQT, Range, Eclipse, and Carrizo.

jake2011 said:

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OPEC countries don't have the discipline to cut anymore, they will pump at any price.

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It's less a lack of discipline and more like desperation since oil revenues are essential to their economies. Additionally, some of the biggest producers--Iraq, Iran, Libya, Venezuela--are trying to rebuild their countries after many years of war, sanctions or mismanagement and they can't get it done without selling a lot of oil.

Schlumberger and Weatherford are forming a joint venture called OneStim. Time to buy Weatherford stock for the inevitable Schlumberger buyout.

http://ir.weatherford.com/cs/wft_investorrelations/news/1413873150335/weatherford-and-schlumberger-to-form-onestim-joint-venture

Goose06 said:

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Who all plans to be at DUG Permian in a few weeks?

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Checking in. We'll have a booth as well.

cajunaggie08 said:

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Schlumberger and Weatherford are forming a joint venture called OneStim. Time to buy Weatherford stock for the inevitable Schlumberger buyout.

http://ir.weatherford.com/cs/wft_investorrelations/news/1413873150335/weatherford-and-schlumberger-to-form-onestim-joint-venture

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Makes sense in these times to share cost, etc. Both get what they are needing, "work", without having to spend a lot on infrastructure they don't have. Who knows what will happen down the road...

Talon2DSO said:

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My fear with SA is that they are so dependent on oil to sustain their opulent standard of living, chaos will ensue once they are unable to sustain that way of life. The whole area becomes a post-apocalyptic world once their collective economies collapse. I feel, from a geopolitical perspective, we need them to not completely **** the bed and play nice

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The whole ME is already a ****show. That ship has sailed. Whether the Saudis can maintain their opulent and decadent lifestyles is immaterial at this point because it's going to collapse. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

COP announces Canadian asset sale:

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2017/03/29/conoco-to-sell-canadian-assets-for-13-3-billion/

Did not expect that...

Shell bailed out as well, looking pretty grim for Alberta

oil sands just aren't profitable where we are now.

74OA said:

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jake2011 said:

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OPEC countries don't have the discipline to cut anymore, they will pump at any price.

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It's less a lack of discipline and more like desperation since oil revenues are essential to their economies. Additionally, some of the biggest producers--Iraq, Iran, Libya, Venezuela--are trying to rebuild their countries after many years of war, sanctions or mismanagement and they can't get it done without selling a lot of oil.

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Ha. There is no rebuilding or desperation. This is a pure money grab by those on top to either stay on top as long as possible or steal as much as quickly as possible.

sts7049 said:

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oil sands just aren't profitable where we are now.

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Good price for COP and what they are looking to achieve but the project itself is profitable even at today's prices. Don't fall into the trap of blind generalization.

Cenovus is a Calgary based company that was spun off from Encana when Encana thought it was smart to become a pure play natural gas company right before the bottom fell out on natural gas prices.

i'm going by what i've seen internally

Quote:

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COP announces Canadian asset sale:

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2017/03/29/conoco-to-sell-canadian-assets-for-13-3-billion/

Did not expect that...

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Don't they also have a lot of their natural gas assets in the L48 on the market?

Buying BG is probably another driver for selling off the Alberta assets, but I'm a downstream Shell guy so I'm certainly not knowledgeable on the upstream side of things

Does anyone here have insight (location, capacity, feedstock market) on the ethane cracker facilities being built?

What about locations or capacity of natural gas power plants?

tamuags08 said:

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Quote:

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COP announces Canadian asset sale:

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2017/03/29/conoco-to-sell-canadian-assets-for-13-3-billion/

Did not expect that...

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Don't they also have a lot of their natural gas assets in the L48 on the market?

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Yes, They're hoping for about $8B for L48 assets

Comeby! said:

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Does anyone here have insight (location, capacity, feedstock market) on the ethane cracker facilities being built?

What about locations or capacity of natural gas power plants?

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Exxon is building or should I say, planning on building one in my home town in south Texas. They were looking at 3 locations to do so. Two in Texas and 1 in Louisiana. Not sure of the capacity as I'm not sure that information was given out yet. They do plan on having somewhere around 400+ full time positions with an average pay of $90k, which in south Texas would go along way considering the cost of living is pretty cheap.

nu awlins ag said:

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Comeby! said:

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Does anyone here have insight (location, capacity, feedstock market) on the ethane cracker facilities being built?

What about locations or capacity of natural gas power plants?

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Exxon is building or should I say, planning on building one in my home town in south Texas. They were looking at 3 locations to do so. Two in Texas and 1 in Louisiana. Not sure of the capacity as I'm not sure that information was given out yet. They do plan on having somewhere around 400+ full time positions with an average pay of $90k, which in south Texas would go along way considering the cost of living is pretty cheap.

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I know they were considering corpus in a partnership with the saudis. Lyondell recently completed their expansion in corpus as well, I believe.

All the ethane crackers I've seen being built here in the states recently are just that, ethane crackers. I don't think they are capable of doing much else.

Goose06 said:

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nu awlins ag said:

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Comeby! said:

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Does anyone here have insight (location, capacity, feedstock market) on the ethane cracker facilities being built?

What about locations or capacity of natural gas power plants?

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Exxon is building or should I say, planning on building one in my home town in south Texas. They were looking at 3 locations to do so. Two in Texas and 1 in Louisiana. Not sure of the capacity as I'm not sure that information was given out yet. They do plan on having somewhere around 400+ full time positions with an average pay of $90k, which in south Texas would go along way considering the cost of living is pretty cheap.

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I know they were considering corpus in a partnership with the saudis. Lyondell recently completed their expansion in corpus as well, I believe.

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It was approved by the county commissioner and the school board, San Patricio, to go ahead with the project. My high school friend's father is the Commish.

I know of several CCGT power plants being built or pending regulatory approval in Louisiana and 1 in Texas.

LostInLA07 said:

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I know of several CCGT power plants being built or pending regulatory approval in Louisiana and 1 in Texas.

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Does anyone know where I can get a map. I Can PM details on why I'm asking.

Sure send me a PM

CP Chem should finish their ethane cracker at Cedar Bayou later this year. The polyethylene plant in Old Ocean should also finish this year.

I would expect Canadian tar sands to rebound about the same time as deepwater. Existing infrastructure that has large capital charges paid for will continue to operate. But new investment is going to be a long way away.

BPCAg05 said:

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CP Chem should finish their ethane cracker at Cedar Bayou later this year. The polyethylene plant in Old Ocean should also finish this year.

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That's in Harris county? Who do these companies ethane suppliers?