http://www.4-traders.com/WTI-2355639/news/Royal-Dutch-Shell-A-Shell-Goes-on-a-Deep-Water-Drilling-Diet-24072168/

messed up the first one

interesting. some pretty detailed information in there, i wonder how they got access to it.

also the first i've heard of these "chief irritants" haha. wonder if that's something they're only doing in deepwater.

sts7049 said:

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is there a link to an article not behind a paywall?

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You really don't have a Journal subscription? I figured everyone still had one of those...

Thoughts?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/20/four-charts-make-the-case-that-crude-oil-has-bottomed.html

nope. never had one.

jbanda said:

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Thoughts?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/20/four-charts-make-the-case-that-crude-oil-has-bottomed.html

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Doubtful. It's more likely that the Saudis flood the market and drive the price down. They have shouldered almost the entire production cuts and haven't even put a dent in storage quantities. They aren't going to make any additional cuts while the rest of OPEC maintains their current levels.

I am extremely fortunate to be currently employed but it looks like our division is not getting any capital for the foreseeable future. I've been happy with my company but I feel like my career development is limited and am interested in exploring other options.

I would prefer to work in the greater Fort Worth area Denver or Houston.

We could have an opening In the near future. I work at an oilfield equipment manufacturer in Fort Worth.

EDIT: email received.

anyone here familiar with DOT regs related to rail? specifically, hazmat transport via rail? I could use some direction on upcoming conferences, classes, training. might even hire a couple people for this later this year.

PM me. Former BNSF hazmat specialist here.

jbanda said:

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Thoughts?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/20/four-charts-make-the-case-that-crude-oil-has-bottomed.html

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From the link:

Quote:

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Something similar looks like it's unfolding right now that could take the oil price back above $50 and then maybe as high as $55. So definitely like what we're seeing here, for at least a short- to intermediate-term trade and maybe a little longer

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I don't think oil going to $50-55/barrel in the short to intermediate-term is groundbreaking to anyone in the industry. A bullish announcement from Saudi or OPEC, an unexpected inventory draw, or drop in rig count could cause that in a day.

Who all plans to be at DUG Permian in a few weeks?

Goose06 said:

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Who all plans to be at DUG Permian in a few weeks?

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I'll be there, and we'll have a booth.

1876er said:

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jbanda said:

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Thoughts?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/20/four-charts-make-the-case-that-crude-oil-has-bottomed.html

---

Doubtful. It's more likely that the Saudis flood the market and drive the price down. They have shouldered almost the entire production cuts and haven't even put a dent in storage quantities. They aren't going to make any additional cuts while the rest of OPEC maintains their current levels.

---

It all hangs on the non-OPEC producers. They agreed to a 1.8 million barrel cut and have just about reached that goal. There has been talk that the demand for crude was expected rise faster than they thought to an average of about 1.2 million per day. Compiling all these numbers and getting accurate information is like trying to predict just how much the market will go up or down.

Goose06 said:

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Who all plans to be at DUG Permian in a few weeks?

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was going to, but it coincides with AAPG annual convention in Houston

nu awlins ag said:

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1876er said:

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jbanda said:

---

Thoughts?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/20/four-charts-make-the-case-that-crude-oil-has-bottomed.html

---

Doubtful. It's more likely that the Saudis flood the market and drive the price down. They have shouldered almost the entire production cuts and haven't even put a dent in storage quantities. They aren't going to make any additional cuts while the rest of OPEC maintains their current levels.

---

It all hangs on the non-OPEC producers. They agreed to a 1.8 million barrel cut and have just about reached that goal. There has been talk that the demand for crude was expected rise faster than they thought to an average of about 1.2 million per day. Compiling all these numbers and getting accurate information is like trying to predict just how much the market will go up or down.

---

The Permian is killing the Saudi's....
Just getting worse.......

SA flooded the world with cheap oil in a bid to maintain its dominant market share by pricing then inefficient US shale out of business. That move backfired as shale keeps getting cheaper and more competitive. Now SA has not only lost market share, but has also lost control of oil prices, as well. The law of unintended consequences is in full play here and Libya isn't even fully back on line yet.........

So oil is now around $47 a barrel

Do you guys in the industry expect this to be the new normal?

Anyone care to estimate a near and long term trading range?

jamey said:

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So oil is now around $47 a barrel

Do you guys in the industry expect this to be the new normal?

Anyone care to estimate a near and long term trading range?

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IMO there is no "normal" in O&G. Every time there's a boom everyone thinks they've seen the last bust, every time there's a bust everyone thinks they've seen the last boom. Sooner or later the current rock bottom CapEx is going to lead to a supply crunch or a hurricane tears up the Gulf and we're back at >$100/bbl and people are wondering if it'll ever be worth less than $80/bbl again. Rinse, repeat.

As for the Saudis, everyone is wringing their hands about them going right back to flooding the market to hold onto their share, but that battle has already been fought and they lost. What are they gonna do, drive the price back down to $30 just to blow through their foreign currency reserves to buy their citizens' loyalty while their Aramco IPO valuation plummets?

The new normal will eventually be around $60-$70 in my opinion. The demand will increase over time, but efficiencies in all things has made huge impacts on actual usage amount. Vehicles get better mileage today, there are now other sources for energy use, solar, wind, etc. that weren't there in large numbers 25+ years ago to heat and cool houses businesses. There will always be a need for oil, as it is still the best bang for your buck in terms of energy efficiency etc.

If you really want a deep look into future demand I think this is the best information available:
http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/outlook-for-energy/2017/2017-outlook-for-energy.pdf

I have no affiliation with ExxonMobil.

Very encouraging that Exxon anticipates that technical efficiencies will limit the growth in energy demand to ~25% by 2040, instead of 100% demand increase without such advances.

http://www.careerbuilder.com/job/J906B86CFWK880H9PW6

FTS is having a career fair tomorrow at the Hampton Inn in Fort Worth.


Hiring the following positions:

EQUIPMENT OPERATORS-Class A CDL required.
FIELD ENGINEERS
MECHANICS
ELECTRONIC TECHNCIANS

I always felt that the "normal" used to be what SA needed to balance their budget, give enough to the 'princes' so they can buy stuff and flaunt it.

Now that there is a shift in oil production to fields once though uneconomic, their ability to set a 'normal' (within variations) is lost.


I also feel that OPEC, much like the US, has lost the idea that together they are better than individuals. While OPEC cannot control every drop of oil (or effect the US), they could disrupt the market which would benefit them. If they could get in a room, demand that others drop production to get the price to come up AND follow through (much like the 70's), I could see OPEC regaining the upper hand. But with the era of cheating and countries once thought of as forever-importers (think South America), I think OPEC is done as a major force. Still something to contend with, but won't swing the axe around like they used too.


I also believe that SA is attempting to transition to a post-oil mindset. I can see that the younger people are aware that oil won't be the main economy of SA in the future. Will it play a role? Yes, but not the 90% of the budget role. I remember one of their ministers saying "We didn't end the stone age because we ran out of rocks". I think they are attempting to balance oil vs. their future economy.

~egon

Anyone on here have a handle on $/acre leasing costs in Glasscock Co, TX and Red River Parish, LA?

Comeby,
I am your guy. All our assets are concentrated in the Central Midland Basin and Haynesville/CV/Travis Peak. Send me a PM and I think I can point you in the right direction.

austinaggie2012 said:

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Comeby,
I am your guy. All our assets are concentrated in the Central Midland Basin and Haynesville/CV/Travis Peak. Send me a PM and I think I can point you in the right direction.

---

You don't have stars so I can't send a PM. Send me an email to my username at aggienetwork dot com.

nu awlins ag said:

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1876er said:

---

jbanda said:

---

Thoughts?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/20/four-charts-make-the-case-that-crude-oil-has-bottomed.html

---

Doubtful. It's more likely that the Saudis flood the market and drive the price down. They have shouldered almost the entire production cuts and haven't even put a dent in storage quantities. They aren't going to make any additional cuts while the rest of OPEC maintains their current levels.

---

It all hangs on the non-OPEC producers. They agreed to a 1.8 million barrel cut and have just about reached that goal. There has been talk that the demand for crude was expected rise faster than they thought to an average of about 1.2 million per day. Compiling all these numbers and getting accurate information is like trying to predict just how much the market will go up or down.

---

The problem is Saudi, Kuwait and Angola are the only countries complying with the cuts. Saudi and Kuwait can make money at prices much lower than the current price. None of the other countries can. Why would they continue to let the other countries cheat while they leave money on the table? Why would they agree to further cuts if none of the other countries are meeting current cuts?

jetch17 said:

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Goose06 said:

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Who all plans to be at DUG Permian in a few weeks?

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was going to, but it coincides with AAPG annual convention in Houston

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On that subject... who all will be at AAPG and should we schedule a takeover/happy hour?

jake2011 said:

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If you don't think Saudi could flood the market with oil again and cause the price to drop then you are too optimistic. Not to mention that the developed world is due for a recession (currently second longest recovery in US) which would hurt oil demand. Another significant decline in oil prices would hurt the US shale producers. Not saying it will happen but a double dip in oil prices could definitely happen coinciding with a recession in the U.S.

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Saudi can, but would they?

Second longest recovery means due for a recession is an interesting take. We certainly took a long time to get out of the last recession, so are you looking at time from bottom to top, bottom to bottom, or time from recovered to next bottom?

Not saying another recession in the US isn't likely. Fed is raising interest rates into potential weakness, we have an upcoming debt ceiling showdown, and Trump's budget that isn't exactly moving towards a balanced budget. However, the only predictor I would take from the Obama administrations missteps that slowed recovery from the last recession is that the federal government is more likely than not to make more missteps that negatively impact the US economy, regardless of who is in office.

US Bank Jefferies said that the market is undersupplied and if OPEC did extend cuts past June, draw down inventories would take place and the price could hit $60 by the end of the year. Very confusing, because in one sentence, the US is producing more adding to the supply thus driving down prices AS WELL they are saying the production cuts are working to bring the price up. Does not make a whole lot of since...

nu awlins ag said:

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US Bank Jefferies said that the market is undersupplied and if OPEC did extend cuts past June, draw down inventories would take place and the price could hit $60 by the end of the year. Very confusing, because in one sentence, the US is producing more adding to the supply thus driving down prices AS WELL they are saying the production cuts are working to bring the price up. Does not make a whole lot of since...

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Maybe they meant:

CURRENTLY supply is adding (at implied current demand)

BUT

IF Saudi maintains cuts in June (and implied increased summer demand) THEN draw downs would take place.


?? just kinda guessing.