It's a start. Most thought they would never come to an agreement back in October/November. The mere fact that they are doing this means they want to see prices edge north. Sure, they want market share, but they are starting to hurt for money as well.
Houston..we have a problem....
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Last: 3 hrs ago by TxAg20
So you dont see prices falling below 50? I am afraid US production is ramping up too quickly to make up for any OPEC cuts.nu awlins ag said:
It's a start. Most thought they would never come to an agreement back in October/November. The mere fact that they are doing this means they want to see prices edge north. Sure, they want market share, but they are starting to hurt for money as well.
Wink said:So you dont see prices falling below 50? I am afraid US production is ramping up too quickly to make up for any OPEC cuts.nu awlins ag said:
It's a start. Most thought they would never come to an agreement back in October/November. The mere fact that they are doing this means they want to see prices edge north. Sure, they want market share, but they are starting to hurt for money as well.
Prices may fall below 50 for the next 2 quarters but only briefly.
This ramp up won't matter once the summer driving season starts in May. Supply/ Demand will be in balance/ under supplied at that point.
One thing I heard was most ME countries/companies don't have service knowledge. When HAL/SCH/BH start going under, they lose the ability to maintain their oil production. So looking long term, they have to cut prices now to keep their actual 'brains' employed and in business.
Just a thought.
~egon
Just a thought.
~egon
I've heard the same thing. In fact, I've heard some countries in the MENA are going to start requiring all vendors to manufacture their goods and service in their respective countries. Of course, this includes hiring a certain percentage of natives to their workforce, as is custom.Dr. Doctor said:
One thing I heard was most ME countries/companies don't have service knowledge. When HAL/SCH/BH start going under, they lose the ability to maintain their oil production. So looking long term, they have to cut prices now to keep their actual 'brains' employed and in business.
Just a thought.
~egon
591 rigs? This is HALF of where we were a year or so ago, HALF. By the time the "ramp" up takes full effect, producing etc., the supply should almost be back in line with demand. Prices may dip below for a bit, but won't last long. Demand is bubbling and will only grow with time. The "ramp" up you read about is the EOG's of the world who have built storage facilities and dump oil when the price gets higher. It takes a month or two to drill and produce a well. These blowhards at Goldman's, etc., think these "shale drillers" just turn on a faucet and bam, there's 50,000 bpd. It is quick, but not like these guys want you to think.Wink said:So you dont see prices falling below 50? I am afraid US production is ramping up too quickly to make up for any OPEC cuts.nu awlins ag said:
It's a start. Most thought they would never come to an agreement back in October/November. The mere fact that they are doing this means they want to see prices edge north. Sure, they want market share, but they are starting to hurt for money as well.
Are you a service guy? You're talking about a complex situation from a service perspective
what does all of this mean for the overall state of the oilfield economy? That we're going to make more money? Also, what does this mean for the offshore OEMs and drillers? Thanks
any of yall doing the annual NAPE crawl this week?
I'll be at NAPE. I have a pretty significant prospect for which we are trying to find a partner. Booth 4734.jetch17 said:
any of yall doing the annual NAPE crawl this week?
What do yall do? I have contacts headed down from Marcellus-Utica region. I'm happy to send them your way
This is a conventional, onshore, gulf coast prospect with significant reserves and play potential.
We do conventional exploration. This is a new play/idea for us, but with the business taking a hit over the last year and a half or so, we don't have the budget to drill the well 100%.
We do conventional exploration. This is a new play/idea for us, but with the business taking a hit over the last year and a half or so, we don't have the budget to drill the well 100%.
I'll be at NAPE, not exhibiting just walking the floor and attending the happy hours. Expecting a better turnout this year than last year...
I've always heard/seen that. Heck, some have offices there, but then tend to be the 'token' office, with about 5 natives and 55 internationals (EU/USA).
I was talking more of 'whole'; if HAL goes down, Aramco lost a major service provider to their wells. Once things need work, that knowledge is hard, if not impossible, to regroup. So they (Aramco) made a short term gain, but overall long term loss.
My hope is that they start thinking longer than next quarter or next year.
~egon
I was talking more of 'whole'; if HAL goes down, Aramco lost a major service provider to their wells. Once things need work, that knowledge is hard, if not impossible, to regroup. So they (Aramco) made a short term gain, but overall long term loss.
My hope is that they start thinking longer than next quarter or next year.
~egon
kornut11 said:I'll be at NAPE. I have a pretty significant prospect for which we are trying to find a partner. Booth 4734.jetch17 said:
any of yall doing the annual NAPE crawl this week?
I'll stop by and check it out.
Yall send me pics!! I have a friend heading down, it's her first time to texas. Can I send her yalls way? Show her a great time
Talon2DSO said:
Yall send me pics!! I have a friend heading down, it's her first time to texas. Can I send her yalls way? Show her a great time
Has there ever been a rule 1 enforcement on this thread?
Great to meet you today, Comeby. Let's keep in touch.
kornut11 said:
Great to meet you today, Comeby. Let's keep in touch.
Absolutely. Will check back soon.
Talon2DSO said:
Yall send me pics!! I have a friend heading down, it's her first time to texas. Can I send her yalls way? Show her a great time
Great time meeting your contacts, especially after thier lunch of 'a ton of enchiladas'
Good turnout at NAPE, nice to have an upbeat show compared to the last couple years
Changing gears a little and, for those who are willing, would like to hear feedback on year end bonuses and raises in the industry. Our company (private, independent O&G company) does annual reviews in February so they are right around the corner.
Here's a summary of the last few years for our company:
-February 2015 (essentially end of 2014), small raise and bonus.
-February 2016 (essentially end of 2015), no raise or bonus but the positive was that there were no layoffs.
-February 2017 (essentially end of 2016), TBD
Here's a summary of the last few years for our company:
-February 2015 (essentially end of 2014), small raise and bonus.
-February 2016 (essentially end of 2015), no raise or bonus but the positive was that there were no layoffs.
-February 2017 (essentially end of 2016), TBD
Good luck man. Hope you find something soon
for those that made it through the various restructurings, bonuses and raises have come out as normal.
March 2015 (2014 Performance): No raises, small bonuses historically speaking, though still above "target"
March 2016 (2015 Performance): Small raises, decent bonuses
March 2017 (2016 Performance): Anticipating decent raises and were told bonuses will be stout.
No major layoffs, just losing people through attrition and a few gone due to performance.
March 2016 (2015 Performance): Small raises, decent bonuses
March 2017 (2016 Performance): Anticipating decent raises and were told bonuses will be stout.
No major layoffs, just losing people through attrition and a few gone due to performance.
Subsea EPC
March 2014 (2013 Performance): Average raises, average bonus to historical norm.
March 2015 (2014 Performance): No raises, tiny bonus below historical norm. Layoffs. Happy to keep my job.
March 2016 (2015 Performance): No raises, tiny bonus below historical norm. Promotion in title, no raise. Layoffs. Happy to keep my job.
March 2017 (2016 Performance): Anticipating No raises, tiny bonus below historical norm, hoping to keep my job.
6 or 8 rounds of layoffs so far with more expected this year. Financial, I came into oil and gas beginning of 2013 so I really need a raise. I may have to start looking which sucks because I really like working here.
March 2014 (2013 Performance): Average raises, average bonus to historical norm.
March 2015 (2014 Performance): No raises, tiny bonus below historical norm. Layoffs. Happy to keep my job.
March 2016 (2015 Performance): No raises, tiny bonus below historical norm. Promotion in title, no raise. Layoffs. Happy to keep my job.
March 2017 (2016 Performance): Anticipating No raises, tiny bonus below historical norm, hoping to keep my job.
6 or 8 rounds of layoffs so far with more expected this year. Financial, I came into oil and gas beginning of 2013 so I really need a raise. I may have to start looking which sucks because I really like working here.
Good luck. The offshore world is brutal right now and still looks to be going down.
Onshore Operator
2014 Review: 12% raise, 22.5% bonus
2015 Review: no raise, 15% bonus
Company Layoffs January 2016
2016 Review: no raise, bonus TBD in March (expecting 30%)
2014 Review: 12% raise, 22.5% bonus
2015 Review: no raise, 15% bonus
Company Layoffs January 2016
2016 Review: no raise, bonus TBD in March (expecting 30%)
Large 'independent'
No raise previous two year review cycles, average bonuses depending on grade level (~20% for me). This year small raise, average bonus again. Morale pretty low still, most just think we're getting the company ready for merger/purchase.
No raise previous two year review cycles, average bonuses depending on grade level (~20% for me). This year small raise, average bonus again. Morale pretty low still, most just think we're getting the company ready for merger/purchase.
Sales for a Manufacturer
2014 - Received a good Q1 bonus, promotion with small raise, and no bonus for rest of year.
2015 - Promotion with small raise, still no bonuses.
2016 - Promotion with average raise, still no bonuses.
2017 - Promotion with significant raise, bonus reinstated.
2014 - Received a good Q1 bonus, promotion with small raise, and no bonus for rest of year.
2015 - Promotion with small raise, still no bonuses.
2016 - Promotion with average raise, still no bonuses.
2017 - Promotion with significant raise, bonus reinstated.
International EPC
2014 - Raise and promotion (1st time)
2015 - nothing, layoffs at end of 2015
2016 - nothing, layoffs
2017 - nothing, layoffs
We get no bonuses, unless you are construction and finish the project. If you do all the design but never go out, you never see another dime (besides paycheck)
I think we are down about 50% or more in my department (max was about 215 people in 5 groups; now about ~100 in 4 groups) last I heard. Probably even more.
2014 - Raise and promotion (1st time)
2015 - nothing, layoffs at end of 2015
2016 - nothing, layoffs
2017 - nothing, layoffs
We get no bonuses, unless you are construction and finish the project. If you do all the design but never go out, you never see another dime (besides paycheck)
I think we are down about 50% or more in my department (max was about 215 people in 5 groups; now about ~100 in 4 groups) last I heard. Probably even more.
thank you. interesting piece.Dr. Doctor said:
And I found this today; for you OA 1976
Your 'eating the seed' comment
~egon
Saw something similar in one of the O&G journals a few weeks ago. This also happened in the 80's bust and had a very significant effect. many many did not return and when it was FINALLY time to grow there was little seasoned talent available.
But what really hurt the industry decades later was the lack of almost a generation of hiring. From 83-ish all the way thru the late 90's very very few new hires were brought on board. The result was by the later 2010's ( what the hell do we call the 00's and the 10's ?) we were faced with a lack of the mid-level types. We had a slew of us old farts who had the 30-40 years experience under our belts and knew the ins and outs how it was done for decades, we had a slew of bright young new guys ( mostly Aggies BTW) who really stepped up BUT we didnt have the 45ish guy who mentored under us and were ready to step into our positions and help navigate the company into the 21t century. Us old farts knew how to do it the old tried and true way and kept the place running using the skills and knowledge from the 70's 80's and 90's, the new kids were ready to learn and adopt new ways but we lacked the 45 year old who was still new enough to know and understand the new ways of the 21t century while understanding the need to keep the old ways running yet also seasoned enough to lead the transition to the modern manufacturing techniques and the ways of the 21st century. We missed hiring damn near an entire generation of engineers and other skilled professionals. This is still hurting the manufacturing side of our industry, especially the failing sweatshop I came from.
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