The 1.4 mm b/d in 2014 Iran exported is what we know about. The sanctions were supposed to limit it to 1 mm b/d.
Houston..we have a problem....
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Last: 9 days ago by insulator_king
GarlandAg2012
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quote:From what I have seen, it appears saudi's using their sovereign wealth fund to play a substantial short position in paper oil in June/July. If that was a successful effort to push the price down to try to drive out more competitors, they could reverse the trade and go long to drive up the price. As I understand it, Saudi sells oil by stating a price relative to Brent and will sell as much as they want/can to whomever will meet that price. Manipulating either the discount or Brent will change the amount people are paying for Saudi oil, and effectively adjust much of the international market.
Just listened to a great presentation from Dr. Mark Dotzour at the A&M Real Estate Center. A good chunk of his presentation was around oil and the global effects of bringing Iran onto the dance floor and the artificial propping up of the Chinese and Japanese economies (its expensive to keep trillion dollar markets supported for very long).
Shouldn't surprise anyone here, but the general sentiment is that US companies have gotten margins down to be profitable at $65 and that prior to the Iran announcement that we were on track to see stabilization and growth in the latter part of this year. As it is now, if China/Japan don't see honest market activity in the near term then global consumption is going to fall precipitously and if/when Iran comes back that could herald $30 within the year.
Side note, the prices needed to appease the peasants and hold off an 'arab spring' coming back is above $65-70 for Saudi. They completely underestimated the ability of the US to sustain sub $70 prices. The rhetoric sounds like they're reevaluating how to manipulate the market if the ayatollah comes back into play.
Short story: the global players have no idea what's going to happen since potus decided to come in with a left hook.
As I said before, the majors absolutely have to radically restructure. Trimming a billion here & a billion there isn't going to cut it.
This is a fundamental shift in how companies operate & remain profitable. It's just simply too easy for a lot of companies to access reserves now.
A lot more people will lose their jobs before this is over.
This is a fundamental shift in how companies operate & remain profitable. It's just simply too easy for a lot of companies to access reserves now.
A lot more people will lose their jobs before this is over.
quote:
As I said before, the majors absolutely have to radically restructure. Trimming a billion here & a billion there isn't going to cut it.
This is a fundamental shift in how companies operate & remain profitable. It's just simply too easy for a lot of companies to access reserves now.
A lot more people will lose their jobs before this is over.
BP sure made a radical change in the onshore lower 48. We're at roughly half of the headcount we had a year ago and our cash costs have fallen off dramatically as we re-design drilling processes and source equipment better suited for an onshore operating environment.
BP is also giving up operatorship in many areas.
As a man that currently makes his living in oil & gas I can't tell if I am genius or stupid for going back to school to get my MBA right now (starting classes in August, executive program so I can still work while I'm doing it).
I bet I won't figure that out for a few more years...
I bet I won't figure that out for a few more years...
A&M's program at CityCentre?
quote:
As I said before, the majors absolutely have to radically restructure. Trimming a billion here & a billion there isn't going to cut it.
This is a fundamental shift in how companies operate & remain profitable. It's just simply too easy for a lot of companies to access reserves now.
A lot more people will lose their jobs before this is over.
I've been manufacturing offshore gear , mostly capitol equipment, for the majors for over 35 years and I can honestly say that over 50% of our costs and therefor our prices are directly due to useless no value added no justification possible in many cases counterproductive crap we have to add/do/design/work around ......demanded over the last 5-10 years by the customers. From having to deal with unqualified sub moronic third party inspectors to inspection and test demands that serve zero purpose to material call outs akin to using titanium for a sign post it's insane . But they always push back with the " well it's probably really not needed but we will pay for it so go ahead and charge us !!"
quote:
A&M's program at CityCentre?
no sir, Tech's week block. It's the only program I could make work on my schedule.
point & laugh now...
I can't point and laugh. I'm strongly considering Baylor's online program because of my travel schedule.
I don't know what your schedule is but Tech has some pretty flexible programs & they are 75% on campus. I'm doing the week block, so I go to my first session August 10-15 & then don't go back until January. You do three classes in a week on campus, then one via correspondence between week blocks. It takes two years. Works perfect for me as I spend long periods in the field but I'm usually home for 10 days in a row when I'm off.
Something to consider.
Something to consider.
quote:
I can't point and laugh. I'm strongly considering Baylor's online program because of my travel schedule.
If you're considering an online MBA, Kelley is the only one with any sort of name recognition.
I did the UF program to accommodate my 2 week rotation
Very much similar to managers jockeying for headcount they don't really need to justify their budgets. Won't argue or disagree with your points as I have zero experience on that side of the house.
The big boys will lose metric crap loads of cash unless they snap out of their self-induced holier than thou, we're the Jones' act and operate lean and efficient.
The big boys will lose metric crap loads of cash unless they snap out of their self-induced holier than thou, we're the Jones' act and operate lean and efficient.
Well don't you just sound delightful to be around. Luckily there are people in this industry actually willing to teach young people and train them for the future.
I think he's just pointing out the number of manhours spent on show and tell.
I love show and tell days. I get to put on my shiny hard hat, clean boots, and get to feel like a real oilman for the day.
WTI sure is looking sick again.
quote:
I've been manufacturing offshore gear , mostly capitol equipment, for the majors for over 35 years and I can honestly say that over 50% of our costs and therefor our prices are directly due to useless no value added no justification possible in many cases counterproductive crap we have to add/do/design/work around ......demanded over the last 5-10 years by the customers. From having to deal with unqualified sub moronic third party inspectors to inspection and test demands that serve zero purpose to material call outs akin to using titanium for a sign post it's insane . But they always push back with the " well it's probably really not needed but we will pay for it so go ahead and charge us !!"
I'll bite. While I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that your seriously exaggerating for effect, your full of it.
There is no doubt that the majors could improve on their processes your statement is off base. It speaks to someone who has no understanding of how their equipment is actually used, nor of someone who has had to live with the failings of their suppliers.
It also speaks to someone who has no understanding of process safety events. These are events that while the likelihood is low, the consequence is large. Just ask Petrobras how they felt when one of their suppliers fixed a poor weld on cascade chinook which led to the chain failing and launching a bouyancy can and delaying a project.
it sounds like you don't have a very good relationship with your customers or you would have raised these issues with them and worked it out or understood what the real reason for the specs were. I know our relationship with our subsea hardware supplier is like that. We actively ask them to help us understand where our ITP(as an example), C&P processes and what we actiually specify is hurting them and us and work to improve that process.
We are not where we want to be, but in our journey we are making progress on both sides. But then we have a 20 year relationship with them that fosters trust so we can have these difficult conversations.
quote:
BP is also giving up operatorship in many areas.
We've had some good success lately when teaming up with smaller operators. All of our Eagle Ford plays are drilled and operated by Lewis. In the Gulf, I think we are trying to maximize the value of our four existing platforms before we move on to operating others.
He's over the top, but he is correct. We just sent two quotes for the first time ever on for a major's subsea project. What they specified and what was actually industry standard. The difference was almost half as in multi 9 figures different. We were tired of them threatening to take the work elsewhere because "we" were too expensive.
Let's just say the entire project is being reevaluated by their senior management.
Let's just say the entire project is being reevaluated by their senior management.
quote:
I think he's just pointing out the number of manhours spent on show and tell.
No he's not. He lacks perspective. Having the client send some young folks for a couple of days (cumulative) to look at their equipment which took 18-24 months to build (and how many man hours and millions of dollars) and say that is a problem?
Them saying "we are too expensive" is not sharing the burden. Just like understanding your market position and adjusting your bid to maximize your profit is not sharing the burden. To meet this new reality will take a partnership between everybody. There's plenty of "blame" to go around. But if your worried about "kids" God help you because you will not achieve what it will take to be competitive in this seemingly new reality.
quote:
He's over the top, but he is correct. We just sent two quotes for the first time ever on for a major's subsea project. What they specified and what was actually industry standard. The difference was almost half as in multi 9 figures different. We were tired of them threatening to take the work elsewhere because "we" were too expensive.
Let's just say the entire project is being reevaluated by their senior management.
Who developed the design and the specs? The end user or the engineering firm?
quote:
Them saying "we are too expensive" is not sharing the burden. Just like understanding your market position and adjusting your bid to maximize your profit is not sharing the burden. To meet this new reality will take a partnership between everybody. There's plenty of "blame" to go around. But if your worried about "kids" God help you because you will not achieve what it will take to be competitive in this seemingly new reality.
1) I said nothing about kids. I don't care if it is "kids" or the CEO. If they want to see their equipment, I'll roll out the red carpet. I chose to focus on the vast expanse of hardware sitting, collecting storage fees.
2). It had nothing to do with sharing a burden, but exposing wants and excess by operators that they complain are "our costs" to their management.
Rest.
Everyone on here is in this together. We are all getting nailed right now. Some of us will make it, some will not. Frustrating that the 'Great Shift Change' will happen and our seasoned warhorses will not get an opportunity to ride off into the sunset like they deserve. Frustrating that several young ones will finish college with a boatload of debt and nowhere to learn. All around a bad deal but remember Aggies stick together and help one another.
Everyone on here is in this together. We are all getting nailed right now. Some of us will make it, some will not. Frustrating that the 'Great Shift Change' will happen and our seasoned warhorses will not get an opportunity to ride off into the sunset like they deserve. Frustrating that several young ones will finish college with a boatload of debt and nowhere to learn. All around a bad deal but remember Aggies stick together and help one another.
quote:
So the truth comes out..... this page isn't the first evidence..... but anyway - negativity Nancy predicted an oil collapse. I'll bet the house he doesn't predict the next run up.
The first person to turn on the news the morning the Middle East implodes will predict the next run up. I personally hope this last at least five years so I can be the next Exxon.
quote:
So the truth comes out..... this page isn't the first evidence..... but anyway - negativity Nancy predicted an oil collapse. I'll bet the house he doesn't predict the next run up.
But give him credit. Lots of people talking about it he he put it down on paper early!
If you guys have the ability this is an interesting read.
http://www.ipaglobal.com/e-p-owner-s-cost-research.
quote:
Rest.
Everyone on here is in this together. We are all getting nailed right now. Some of us will make it, some will not. Frustrating that the 'Great Shift Change' will happen and our seasoned warhorses will not get an opportunity to ride off into the sunset like they deserve. Frustrating that several young ones will finish college with a boatload of debt and nowhere to learn. All around a bad deal but remember Aggies stick together and help one another.
This
quote:Well said.
Rest.
Everyone on here is in this together. We are all getting nailed right now. Some of us will make it, some will not. Frustrating that the 'Great Shift Change' will happen and our seasoned warhorses will not get an opportunity to ride off into the sunset like they deserve. Frustrating that several young ones will finish college with a boatload of debt and nowhere to learn. All around a bad deal but remember Aggies stick together and help one another.
quote:
Rest.
Everyone on here is in this together. We are all getting nailed right now. Some of us will make it, some will not. Frustrating that the 'Great Shift Change' will happen and our seasoned warhorses will not get an opportunity to ride off into the sunset like they deserve. Frustrating that several young ones will finish college with a boatload of debt and nowhere to learn. All around a bad deal but remember Aggies stick together and help one another.
Great post. I recently left Chevron because I saw the storm clouds on the horizon. It was a tough decision because I had planned to try to finish my career there. In any case, any engineers or project controls folks with onshore facility experience who end up on the wrong side of things (and who are in it are okay moving to the Houston area, New Orleans or Jackson) should please send me a PM as I may be able to help. No promises but we are hiring for certain positions.
quote:
Rest.
Everyone on here is in this together. We are all getting nailed right now. Some of us will make it, some will not. Frustrating that the 'Great Shift Change' will happen and our seasoned warhorses will not get an opportunity to ride off into the sunset like they deserve. Frustrating that several young ones will finish college with a boatload of debt and nowhere to learn. All around a bad deal but remember Aggies stick together and help one another.
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