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Houston..we have a problem....

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pfo
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In reply to Natasha Romanoff • 5:28p, 7/22/15
AG
quote:
The spread between supply and demand isn't a huge spread. Back during the initial drop, I think I read it was somewhere around 1-2% difference. We just got done hearing from our management and they made a comment I agree with - most people probably believe that the world is just floating in oil right now, and that isn't the case. Is there a supply glut? Yes. But it's not as huge as many people think.


Exactly correct! All commodities are priced at the margin. The last catfish, beach front property or barrel of oil that someone needs to sell to somebody that really doesn't have to have it. Vice versa when prices are going up. The cost of holding the commodity is an important number.
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Dan Scott
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11:32a, 7/23/15
AG
COP is down 4% today anything happening.
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to Natasha Romanoff • 11:43a, 7/23/15
AG
Natasha, I have consistently trusted your judgement on things like this and that's not going to change now. I hope you're right and my statement was more hyperbolic than anything else.
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aggiemike02
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In reply to Dan Scott • 11:48a, 7/23/15
AG
Normal day at the office so far...
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GEA89
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In reply to Talon2DSO • 12:00p, 7/23/15
AG
quote:
Natasha, I have consistently trusted your judgement on things like this and that's not going to change now. I hope you're right and my statement was more hyperbolic than anything else.
I concur. Thanks for your input Natasha.
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pfo
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In reply to aggiemike02 • 12:28p, 7/23/15
AG
quote:
Normal day at the office so far...


That's what my class of "78" PETE buddy said to me on his last day at Noble. Two hours later all his office stuff was in a cardboard box.
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tamuags08
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12:50p, 7/23/15
AG
It is my opinion the cuts at COP won't come until late September/October timeframe. At a minimum they'll wait until the interns leave.
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twilly
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1:34p, 7/23/15
AG
I wouldn't be so sure about waiting for the interns. Did my senior PETE intern stint with the old Conoco in '92. They announced the closing of the Lafayette office and laid off half the staff while I was there for the summer.
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LostInLA07
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2:53p, 7/23/15
AG
What are the chances of Brent crude dropping below $50?
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Token
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In reply to LostInLA07 • 2:54p, 7/23/15
AG
quote:
What are the chances of Brent crude dropping below $50?
our curves see that as a 15% chance happening at current conditions
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canadianAg
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4:59p, 7/23/15
AG
Heard similar rumors today on COP. About 3-4k cuts, selling all exploration leases. Possibility of selling all deepwater assets.
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LostInLA07
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In reply to canadianAg • 5:01p, 7/23/15
AG
quote:
Heard similar rumors today on COP. About 3-4k cuts, selling all exploration leases. Possibility of selling all deepwater assets.


Wow that's drastic
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El Mero Guero
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5:10p, 7/23/15
Bought a bunch of UCO earlier in the year at $9.02 ($45.10 adjusted for split). Never thought I'd see it go below $30 that's for sure.
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Dale Earnhardts Stache
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In reply to canadianAg • 5:20p, 7/23/15
AG
quote:
Heard similar rumors today on COP. About 3-4k cuts, selling all exploration leases. Possibility of selling all deepwater assets.


Yikes
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End Of Message
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In reply to canadianAg • 5:35p, 7/23/15
AG
quote:
Heard similar rumors today on COP. About 3-4k cuts, selling all exploration leases. Possibility of selling all deepwater assets.

Duck and cover
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aggiebonzo
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5:37p, 7/23/15
AG
How many employees does COP currently have?
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Ridge14
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In reply to aggiebonzo • 6:14p, 7/23/15
quote:
How many employees does COP currently have?
quote:

May 5, 2015

ConocoPhillips is the world's largest independent exploration and production (E&P) company, based on proved reserves and production of liquids and natural gas. Headquartered in Houston, Texas, we had operations and activities in 27 countries, approximately 18,800 employees worldwide and total assets of $110 billion as of March 31, 2015.

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RABAg04
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In reply to aggiebonzo • 6:14p, 7/23/15
AG
18,000.

The deep water stuff and drillship contract cancelation was announced last week.
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In reply to Natasha Romanoff • 7:13p, 7/23/15
aggie_wes
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In reply to El Mero Guero • 7:15p, 7/23/15
AG
quote:
Bought a bunch of UCO earlier in the year at $9.02 ($45.10 adjusted for split). Never thought I'd see it go below $30 that's for sure.


I bought in at 42 figuring I'd hold it for the long term, but when it got to 46 I sold thinking we were in for a big downturn. I'm planning to buy back in, just trying to find the bottom. It's at 29.63 today.
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aggie028
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8:11p, 7/23/15
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txaggie_08
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9:42p, 7/23/15
AG
I've heard Continental is current drilling subsequent wells in the Woodford, but not completing them currently. Waiting for prices to rise. Anyone heard this?

I'm curious if other companies are doing the same, which will basically keep prices down.
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IrishTxAggie
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9:49p, 7/23/15
AG
Is Hamm driving his stock price down just to screw his wife? It's lost over 50% from its 1yr high. I know that's not what he's actually doing, it just seems like he's been playing this downturn completely wrong and is stil grasping at the idea that oil will be back at $100 by years end.
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LostInLA07
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 11:08p, 7/23/15
AG
He sold all of his hedges shortly before prices crashed.
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to LostInLA07 • 11:14p, 7/23/15
AG
I remember. Got Continental something like almost $500MM at the time.
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Comeby!
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 11:59p, 7/23/15
AG
quote:
Is Hamm driving his stock price down just to screw his wife? It's lost over 50% from its 1yr high. I know that's not what he's actually doing, it just seems like he's been playing this downturn completely wrong and is stil grasping at the idea that oil will be back at $100 by years end.

You can't do that in a public company. The oil price dropped by 50% from this time last year.
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IrishTxAggie
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In reply to Comeby! • 12:11a, 7/24/15
AG
Yes, but how many other companies with similar exposure as Continental have taken the similar hits on valuation? I know he can't purposely drive the stock into the ground in a publically traded company. That was meant in jest. I guess I just don't quite understand Hamm personally.
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Comeby!
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In reply to IrishTxAggie • 1:08a, 7/24/15
AG
quote:
Yes, but how many other companies with similar exposure as Continental have taken the similar hits on valuation? I know he can't purposely drive the stock into the ground in a publically traded company. That was meant in jest. I guess I just don't quite understand Hamm personally.

Look at all the balance sheets. Most that are heavy in oil have.
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aggie028
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7:19a, 7/24/15
http://www.rbcrichardsonbarr.com

Don't have to wonder
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AgLA06
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In reply to aggie028 • 8:57a, 7/24/15
AG
quote:
Until our oil production conclusively declines, I can't see the price moving up much - $60 is the obvious new top. Everyone thought the drop would have happened by now with the drop in rigs.

Companies like EOG who deferred completions will be forced to complete them at some point - I am curious how significant the number of deferred completions is amongst all companies. I bet we see a "surprise" bump in production come late January after falling for the head fake of drastically slower development late in the year when budgets really tighten up.


Where do you think the rise in production is coming from if no one is drilling?
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LostInLA07
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In reply to AgLA06 • 8:58a, 7/24/15
AG
Wells already drilled but not completed?
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Cepe
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9:01a, 7/24/15
AG
I know in the Permian wells are getting better as the operators refine their kit and mix strategies. In addition some wells were drilled at only 5000 feet are now drilled at 7500/10000 feet laterals.

In combination you get better producing wells and higher production from fewer wells. The same number of wells we used to drill with six rigs only takes us 2 rigs to get the same or more production now.
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Satellite of Love
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9:21a, 7/24/15
Permian had an uptick in rig count when oil had a slight rebound to $60/bbl.

The Bakken area has turned over from its peak oil production. Permian and Eagle Ford still haven't made it over the hump. A lot of companies are still drilling but deferring completions until next year.
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BiochemAg97
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9:47a, 7/24/15
AG
Read an interesting report today that said there was evidence that Saudi and Kuwait sovereign wealth funds were shorting oil the last several weeks and that may be at least partially responsible for the recent drop. Saudi oil minister said they expect the current dip to be ending soon, maybe signaling an unwinding of the shorts.

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Comeby!
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In reply to aggie028 • 10:11a, 7/24/15
AG
quote:
http://www.rbcrichardsonbarr.com

Don't have to wonder
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