Eh, Downstream may not pay exactly what Upstream does, but it's not terribly far. Plus either pays more than your average industry.

A guy from upstream can't expect to come into a downstream job and make top rate. I know it doesn't work the other way around.

Like others said, they'll get paid pretty good so it really isn't a concern that they'll starve.

what a roller coaster the market has been the last few days

oil is down, everything is up a couple of percentage points, oil goes up and everything drops big.

wtf?

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They ceased being 'your folks' when you laid them off. Indeed.

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I havent laid off anyone, knucklehead.

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They ceased being 'your folks' when you laid them off. Indeed.

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I havent laid off anyone, knucklehead.

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I think he meant the upstream companies as a whole and not specifically you.

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They ceased being 'your folks' when you laid them off. Indeed.

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I havent laid off anyone, knucklehead.

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Who you calling knucklehead, pal?

Small rise in inventories. With summer travel winding down and refineries going into turnarounds in the Fall, oil is going to keep falling.

GS might be right with their $37 call

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They ceased being 'your folks' when you laid them off. Indeed.

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I havent laid off anyone, knucklehead.

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Who you calling knucklehead, pal?

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who you calling pal, friend?




also, in a somewhat related note, kinda nerve racking when oil and your company's stock is dropping and your boss's boss walks into your office, asks if you have a minute, and closes the door behind him...

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who you calling pal, friend?

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I ain't your friend palooka.

Well, how big a boy are ya?

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They ceased being 'your folks' when you laid them off. Indeed.

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I havent laid off anyone, knucklehead.

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Who you calling knucklehead, pal?

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who you calling pal, friend?




also, in a somewhat related note, kinda nerve racking when oil and your company's stock is dropping and your boss's boss walks into your office, asks if you have a minute, and closes the door behind him...

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You have an office still?

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They ceased being 'your folks' when you laid them off. Indeed.

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I havent laid off anyone, knucklehead.

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Who you calling knucklehead, pal?

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who you calling pal, friend?




also, in a somewhat related note, kinda nerve racking when oil and your company's stock is dropping and your boss's boss walks into your office, asks if you have a minute, and closes the door behind him...

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That's rough. So what happened?

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They ceased being 'your folks' when you laid them off. Indeed.

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I havent laid off anyone, knucklehead.

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Who you calling knucklehead, pal?

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who you calling pal, friend?




also, in a somewhat related note, kinda nerve racking when oil and your company's stock is dropping and your boss's boss walks into your office, asks if you have a minute, and closes the door behind him...

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You have an office still?

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you guys moved to that open floor cubicle concept, right? Do you at least get the same cube everyday?

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They ceased being 'your folks' when you laid them off. Indeed.

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I havent laid off anyone, knucklehead.

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Who you calling knucklehead, pal?

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who you calling pal, friend?




also, in a somewhat related note, kinda nerve racking when oil and your company's stock is dropping and your boss's boss walks into your office, asks if you have a minute, and closes the door behind him...

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That's rough. So what happened?

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turns out he just wanted to ask me if i would be good taking on a group of wells in South Texas while we were slow in Colorado which is the area I have been managing up to this point. Some way to start that convo though, by closing the door and opening with how things have slowed down so much...

Yea that's pretty crappy. I had a manager do something like that to me over 10 years ago. Had a big tablet with the letters RIF on it. He's now the president of C&J.I don't use them.

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Small rise in inventories. With summer travel winding down and refineries going into turnarounds in the Fall, oil is going to keep falling.

GS might be right with their $37 call

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God I hope you are wrong.

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you guys moved to that open floor cubicle concept, right? Do you at least get the same cube everyday?

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Yeah tiny cubes, but I do get my own at least.

are any deepwater projects out there viable at $55/barrel?

anyone in offshore here?

^^^yes. If there's a close facility to tie backi think $55 is doable. Shell just announced FID on their Appomattox facility. My guess is APC will do the same for Shenendoah in the next year or so. I doubt they are forecasting $55 oil when these things come on though

Shell says Appo breakseven at $55 in their release last week.

http://www.shell.com/global/aboutshell/media/news-and-media-releases/2015/shell-takes-final-investment-decision-appomattox.html

What's the cost on that project?

Shell cost on appomattox is probably 2.5 to 3 billion. They have other discovers that will tie back to the facility, eventually.

That's the high stakes poker section....

In the ultra deep water the cost to drill one well can be $250MM or more and the first well is typically p&a'd. D&C cost can be close to $400MM per well.

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Shell cost on appomattox is probably 2.5 to 3 billion.

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No.

Badass.

7200 feet and 175k bpd...I'm guessing around the $10B ballpark with drilling.

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In the ultra deep water the cost to drill one well can be $250MM or more and the first well is typically p&a'd. D&C cost can be close to $400MM per well.

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The article states there are 15 wells + injection wells. Based on your own estimates your previous guess is low.

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In the ultra deep water the cost to drill one well can be $250MM or more and the first well is typically p&a'd. D&C cost can be close to $400MM per well.

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The article states there are 15 wells + injection wells. Based on your own estimates your previous guess is low.

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My estimates are independent. To fabricate and install the facility could cost 2.5 to 3 billion alone, likely much more. That does not include the cost to D&C the wells.


My post about the D&C cost was in response to the post about the "high stakes table". Currently, the most expensive wells in the gulf are lower tertiary Wilcox wells. Shells appamatox facility and the other fields mentioned in the article are norphlet, which is cheaper to drill than wilcox. Lower pressueres, shallower depths.

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My estimates are independent. To fabricate and install the facility could cost 2.5 to 3 billion alone, likely much more. That does not include the cost to D&C the wells.

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Nice back track there.

What are the real forecasters stating on this oil crunch we are in. Do we see it continue to fall, has it bottomed out, and is there any hope for a recovery in the next 6 months?

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What are the real forecasters stating on this oil crunch we are in. Do we see it continue to fall, has it bottomed out, and is there any hope for a recovery in the next 6 months?

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Real forecaster are predicting all 3 possibilities. In the near term, no one knows for certain.

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Do we see it continue to fall

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Yes

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has it bottomed out

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Yes

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and is there any hope for a recovery in the next 6 months?

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Yes

I'm sure it's different on each project but for you guys in the know, how long do company's plan to get their money back on a project. On a normal well, I've seen 2-3 years until it becomes profitable, but how long for these mega projects like Gorgon.