I'm just begging for $65 at the end of Summer, of course if the rig count goes down to 600 or so, does it really matter?

+$55

Has it broken through? Hope so. But more oscillation is likely.

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are attempting to secure a break higher from consolidation, with a close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion exposing the 50% level at 61.45. Alternatively, a turn below rising trend line support at 56.32 targets the March 17 low at 52.55.

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http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/cross-market_technical_update/2015/04/15/Crude-Oil-Attempting-Breakout-SPX-500-Vulnerable-to-Weakness.html

My SLB, APA, and NBL have really been hot this past month or so. I thought I had bought too soon (and I did on Apache) but this is really a bright spot in what has been a pretty tough year so far!

Oil up to $56 today (about 5% up)

And my theory about less posts on this thread when oil is going up seems to be accurate. Guess it doesn't fit with the "Houston we have a problem" title.

I was down $22k a month or so ago, now I'm up $3k. Would have been a lot more but starting selling a week ago. Definitely lots of money to be made on these swings if you can guess them right, I unfortunately timed my first one terribly which put me in a hole. Luckily I averaged down.

I think it is going to go down again in the next month but it is all just a guessing game unless you are on the inside.

Linn Energy had some layoffs today. I don't know many details. Friend said they had a called meeting by Mark Ellis this morning. I believe he announce the closing of their Denver office and some Houston employees are being let go. Don't know the number....

Whoa! linn is an MLP. It's like an operator CD.

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Linn Energy had some layoffs today. I don't know many details. Friend said they had a called meeting by Mark Ellis this morning. I believe he announce the closing of their Denver office and some Houston employees are being let go. Don't know the number....

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No official number and correct on Denver.

over levered in this market = layoffs. Linn might be on the list of dead men walking.

All while their new office building is under construction here in OKC

Mark Ellis was one year behind me in pete and I thought he was the smartest guy in that class. But when I asked my professional investors about buying the stock, they articulated very good reasons for buying several other oil and gas stocks instead. They seemed scared of the stock and its performance since that time has been awful. I wish Mark and Linn Energy the very best but with our entire industry on sale I bought the O&G companies I thought were the very highest quality.

The problem with them is they embarked on a very aggressive growth strategy. They'd have their fairly large A&D group run an analysis in record time and chomp off a huge deal. After digesting the assets, they'd sell off the scraps. Of course these deals were heavily leveraged against PDP. At some point I figured they'd get caught with a hot potato. Surprised though...

Thanks Comeby.

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Oh I agree. But when many of these contractors are working exclusive contracts with an operator, drive in trucks with operator logos and wear operator uniforms, the lines get blurred. In more liberal parts of the US, you can bet the courts will favor the individual over the company.

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they get blurred because the contractors are idiots.

Every contract I have worked, I have been given a comp may computer, badge and sometimes a cell phone. But I am either paid a w2 by a 3rd party or a 1099 from the company. Only someone blinded by greed would be taken by surprise to not know they were a contractor.

They should be ashamed for taking this to court.

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A 1099 has no legal relevance on if someone is a contractor or not. It only represents what the business wants then to be. There are specific requirements that have to be met to be an independent contractor. I suspect someone drawing a w2 from a separate company has no claim.

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Thanks Comeby.

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What'd I miss?

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I'm a 34 yr industry veteran. IMHO I believe we have turned the corner on this downturn although it may take a few yrs for things to pick back up in a significant way. Advice for young people is take any industry job you can to show drive and passion for the o & g roller coaster and it will eventually pay off for you. Manage your finances conservatively in good times so you can survive the bad times.

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Good to hear. I have heard numerous opinions from money managers and economists who feel we will be around $70 by the end of the year. There has been some talk about another dip before the rise. I bought in a couple of weeks ago and am happy so far.

If oil does rise, a place to look at would be airlines and possibly cruise lines. They were making a killing in profits when oil was at $110. They are dipping as oil goes up. There is more to it than that, but it does look like an emotional knee jerk reaction that you could make a quick 10-20% on. Quick being 1 year.

This confuses me. Wouldn't lower oil prices mean lower fuel expense and result in higher margins/more profit for cruiselines and airlines? How do they benefit from higher crude?

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This confuses me. Wouldn't lower oil prices mean lower fuel expense and result in higher margins/more profit for cruiselines and airlines? How do they benefit from higher crude?

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They were making a killing in profits when oil was at $110. They are dipping as oil goes up. There is more to it than that, but it does look like an emotional knee jerk reaction that you could make a quick 10-20% on. Quick being 1 year.

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in his opinion, airlines were making a killing when oil was $110-and they are most certainly making a killing still now, but they are currently dipping...

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This confuses me. Wouldn't lower oil prices mean lower fuel expense and result in higher margins/more profit for cruiselines and airlines? How do they benefit from higher crude?

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Aggiemike is right. My company's analysts are saying airlines will probably go down as oil goes up. That is currently happening. My thought is buy the airlines as they dip because of their recent hitsory with profits on expensive oil. They made massive cuts to all kinds of costs, added extra fees, streamlined routes, and raised ticket prices when oil was high and the economy was slow.

Now, airline companies are flush with cash after the economy rose and oil dipped to $110. If oil goes up to $70, it is even more profitable than when oil was $110. It seems like traders are focusing on oil is at $50 good for airlines, oil at $75 is bad. It was only at $50 for a few months. It was at $110 for a long while.

The only costs I have seen the airlines start to do is raises for the workers and increase benefits. It didn't appear to be overboard, but it is something to look at.

Last thing - I am not an analyst, and our analysts are saying no to airlines for now. They are smarter than me, but I still think they are wrong. The stocks are down about 15% from they high and I would think that a buy would be wise soon.

Airlines hedge their fuel costs on short-term and long-term contracts. Most probably the reduction in oil prices has not yet impacted them significantly as they had locked in their fuel costs based on long-term deals. they will most probably now be seeing lower costs as they work through their existing contracts and replace them with lower costs fuel. But decreased fuel prices can mean increased price competition for market share which can impact the bottom line. I assume there is a sweet spot for jet fuel price.

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Airlines hedge their fuel costs on short-term and long-term contracts. Most probably the reduction in oil prices has not yet impacted them significantly as they had locked in their fuel costs based on long-term deals. they will most probably now be seeing lower costs as they work through their existing contracts and replace them with lower costs fuel. But decreased fuel prices can mean increased price competition for market share which can impact the bottom line. I assume there is a sweet spot for jet fuel price.

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Thanks for that. Another good reason to think of before jumping in. However, they all have started to increase their ticket prices, which is amazing to me. I am guessing that they lower prices when demand shrinks, not when they save money on oil, but who knows.

Al-Qaida captures major airport, oil terminal in south Yemen

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_YEMEN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-04-16-11-06-53

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Airlines hedge their fuel costs on short-term and long-term contracts. Most probably the reduction in oil prices has not yet impacted them significantly as they had locked in their fuel costs based on long-term deals. they will most probably now be seeing lower costs as they work through their existing contracts and replace them with lower costs fuel. But decreased fuel prices can mean increased price competition for market share which can impact the bottom line. I assume there is a sweet spot for jet fuel price.

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Thanks for that. Another good reason to think of before jumping in. However, they all have started to increase their ticket prices, which is amazing to me. I am guessing that they lower prices when demand shrinks, not when they save money on oil, but who knows.

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United's 10_k actually says they face increased competition (lower fares, more competition) when fuel prices are lower. This can result in lower revenues and decreased profits when fuel prices go back up because they cannot adjust fares as easily

Really expected a pullback today on the oil price but it seems to be holding and rising some. I'm sure Yemen has something to do with it to an extent.

Go Go Go!

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Airlines hedge their fuel costs on short-term and long-term contracts. Most probably the reduction in oil prices has not yet impacted them significantly as they had locked in their fuel costs based on long-term deals. they will most probably now be seeing lower costs as they work through their existing contracts and replace them with lower costs fuel. But decreased fuel prices can mean increased price competition for market share which can impact the bottom line. I assume there is a sweet spot for jet fuel price.

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I was going to post something similar. There was an article a couple of years ago how some analysts at SW Airlines helped save the company either several hundred million over a couple of years by taking certain positions on their fuel contracts.

SLB laying off another 11k

link