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I was waiting for the liar vs. lier. I didn't want to be a smartass and say I bet he enjoys a little recline every once and a while.

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But instead you continued with the incorrect word in your response to Buffet being a "lier".

Once and upon a time

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Dune Energy files Chp. 11. Houston based on shore TX and LA company.


CHP 11

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The oil price collapse did nothing more than accellerate this company's bankruptcy filing. They were extremely over levered at $100 oil.

XOM stock makes new 52 week low again today. I'm amazed at how resilient CXO is

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Noble having second layer of layoffs at months end.

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What are you considering the 1st layer?

And scheduled April 7th last I heard.

Looks like its going to be an ugly day for oil stocks.

The U.S. dollar is too strong

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Noble having second layer of layoffs at months end.

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What are you considering the 1st layer?

And scheduled April 7th last I heard.

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Are we talking about Noble Energy or Noble Drilling?

See last page.

"Is that Noble Energy or Noble Drilling?"

"Energy"

Looks like whiting petroleum is looking to try and sell themselves

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-09/whiting-petroleum-said-to-hire-adviser-to-pursue-potential-sale

If they don't, they are going BK. CWEI is going to have some issues too.

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CWEI is going to have some issues too.

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Do share.

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If they don't, they are going BK. CWEI is going to have some issues too.

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Whiting is going bankrupt? No. Not even close. Look at their fundamentals before making ridiculous statements like this.

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CWEI is going to have some issues too.

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Do share.

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If I were you I'd discount anything he says.

NCCTWD and they are in violation of multiple debt covenants. Think what you want.

Look at the yield spread between CWEI and other similarly rates bonds. Now take the spread of the 1 yr vs 3 mo tr. regress them against each other and you will see why I say CWEI is in trouble. They are losing both a lagging and leading indicator while trying to maintain their eps via taking on -NPV but accretive projects...its a long term value kill for short term +EPS manipulation. EPS doesn't take into account if the risk associated with new projects adequately compensates investors for taking them on. CWEI is a quintessential example. It's why their relative yield spread is so large when standardized.

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NCCTWD and they are in violation of multiple debt covenants. Think what you want.

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Multiple banks are relaxing their debt covenants. Some are even suspending.

What project is CWEI taking on? Seems like they have slowed to a halt, no?

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NCCTWD and they are in violation of multiple debt covenants. Think what you want.

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Multiple banks are relaxing their debt covenants. Some are even suspending.

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No kidding. It's probably faster to count the small E&P's that aren't in violation of their debt covenants than the ones who are.

Yep. I was amazed at some of the leniency terms.

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Yep. I was amazed at some of the leniency terms.

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Banks do not want to foreclose on oil and gas properties - especially if their customer is an operator. They will work with the E&P company as long as possible.

Relevant - I believe this was already mentioned, but there are unknowns how this will affect the reserves-debt-bonds-borrowing base once the new price is factored into balance sheets in April and May (they are not right now).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/oil-at-95-a-barrel-discovered-in-sec-rules-on-reserves

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Look at the yield spread between CWEI and other similarly rates bonds. Now take the spread of the 1 yr vs 3 mo tr. regress them against each other and you will see why I say CWEI is in trouble. They are losing both a lagging and leading indicator while trying to maintain their eps via taking on -NPV but accretive projects...its a long term value kill for short term +EPS manipulation. EPS doesn't take into account if the risk associated with new projects adequately compensates investors for taking them on. CWEI is a quintessential example. It's why their relative yield spread is so large when standardized.

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You're citing a bunch of equity-centric jargon that has no real relevance to the likelihood of CWEI going bankrupt. As others have said, look at what banks are doing to kick the can down the road (covenant relief, not dropping borrowing bases as aggressively as they could). Look at what type of capital has been raised (2nd lien, senior secured) to generate liquidity and buy time. Distressed companies are raising this capital left and right. If you think CWEI can't raise this same type of capital (if they even need to) then I don't know what to tell you.

Interesting. So there could be some lucrative short opportunities.

Which companies have the biggest ratio of assets as reserves that will be impacted the most by this?

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From CWEI Annual Report (2014)

The present value of our future net cash flows from proved reserves, before deductions for estimated future income taxes and asset retirement obligations, discounted at 10% ("PV-10"), totaled $1.4 billion at December 31, 2014 . The commodity prices used to estimate proved reserves and their related PV-10 at December 31, 2014 were based on the 12-month unweighted arithmetic average of the first-day-of-the-month prices for the period from January 2014 through December 2014 . The benchmark average prices for 2014 were $94.99 per barrel of oil and $4.35 per MMBtu of natural gas. These benchmark average prices were further adjusted for quality, energy content, transportation fees and other price differentials specific to our properties, resulting in an average adjusted price of $90.48 per barrel of oil, $31.54 per barrel of NGL and $4.27 per Mcf of natural gas over the remaining life of our proved reserves. Operating costs were not escalated.

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Source : http://b2i.api.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EdgarPro.dll?FetchFilingHTML1?SessionID=p4iq6y-6vH2Vo-9&ID=10525615#CWEI-123114X10XK_HTM_S67509C96B92AFD6C437F35316D0E1136

Netherland Sewell evaluates the reserves for a lot of companies - will most likely depend on their assessments to see what happens to the PV-10 and proved developed/undeveloped. Might be some surprises

Banks hate to call in loans in bad times. Big negative on the balance sheet to write down all those assets.

Look at their behavior when the housing market collapsed. They let people go without paying a mortgage for years in some cases. Better to have the owner living in the house than to try to sell it at a loss after foreclosure.

Similar behavior a few years back with respect to commercial real estate. Extend extend extend, as long as they could avoid for losing or writing off the asset.

It will be reflected in the bond yields/prices sold to pension funds before the banks act. The issue would be if a few of the companies have trouble rolling over their HY bonds if the borrowing rates get too high. Banks would be unlikely to expand their credit facilities if that was happening simultaneously.

Who knows, maybe they will and the Fed will bail them out...

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Banks hate to call in loans in bad times. Big negative on the balance sheet to write down all those assets.

Look at their behavior when the housing market collapsed. They let people go without paying a mortgage for years in some cases. Better to have the owner living in the house than to try to sell it at a loss after foreclosure.

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Yep, and Bank's really really hate the thought of foreclosing on oil and gas properties and any potential environmental issues they could inherit.

They already have and it's trading sub 75. If you don't think yield spreads are a strong indicator of future distressed equity and BK proceedings, you should ask for any MBA or business degree costs back.

I have that spreadsheet. PM me. I'd hate for golferag to get a hold of it and try and argue wood Mack data as flawed and equity centric

Beta assets = beta debt (Wd) x beta equity (We)

Golferag obviously doesn't understand that risk flows from assets to debt and equity and cash flows move from assets to debt and equity.

Yield spreads are not equity centric. They don't even carry an equity component.

The spread shows the debt movement relative to the industry and market. The accretive but -NPV projects are equity centric, and shows the value and cost drivers.

Therefore you have an analyzation of efficency given corporate structure and the effect of corporate structure on equity risk and cash flow discounting standardizing across industry DRPs.

Calling a regression of the covarisnce between yield spread to eps worthless shows a complete lack of understanding of how vulture funds operate.

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Yield spreads are not equity centric. They don't even carry an equity component.

The spread shows the debt movement relative to the industry and market. The accretive but -NPV projects are equity centric, and shows the value and cost drivers.

Therefore you have an analyzation of efficency given corporate structure and the effect of corporate structure on equity risk and cash flow discounting standardizing across industry DRPs.

Calling a regression of the covarisnce between yield spread to eps worthless shows a complete lack of understanding of how vulture funds operate.

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You can go ahead and believe that your analysis of all of these statistics means CWEI will file bankruptcy, but I'm going to go ahead and disagree with you and say the banks will kick the can down the road until CWEI shores up its balance sheet with junior capital (hell, they may even raise equity). There are enough dollars chasing yield in this space that it will get done. And when it does, they will likely have bought enough time to wait for prices to recover.

If prices fall further, different story obviously, but as it stands right now I wouldn't go around spouting that Whiting and CWEI are going bankrupt.

Short away though and be sure to tell us about your trades when you do.

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You forgot the laugh-cry emoticon. How can I take you seriously?

Has anyone heard the rumor that Exxon might be looking at Marathon? Could perhaps explain the deep cuts they took