My co is about to announce about $2B in cancelled projects.

I saw an article this morning that said Venezuela is already making noise about the price needing to go back up.

Unfortunately no one cares what Venezuela thinks. Going to need some OPEC members to get more vocal about it.

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Unfortunately no one cares what Venezuela thinks. Going to need some OPEC members to get more vocal about it.

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You do know Venezuela is an OPEC member, correct?

Why should OPEC cut, somebody else will just fill the void.

Venezuela is the retarded step brother that only gets invited because mom says you have to.

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Venezuela is the retarded step brother that only gets invited because mom says you have to.

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Venezuela is a ****ty backward ass country, but they they were a founding member of OPEC, and the 9th largest producer in the world

Venezuela is in OPEC, they are the 9th largest oil producer in the world, they are already politically unstable, the WSJ estimates that they need $120 oil to balance their budget, and they couldn't service their debt at $60 oil. It's exactly the kind of situation that could blow up and have a major impact on oil prices.

It might not be Venezuela in the end, but the top 15 or so oil producers is a who's who of screwed up countries that could blow up at any moment. It's not a matter of if, but when. Saudi is banking on being able to hold it together long enough to knock down the Americans (and probably the Iranians). They may be right, but even though they hold most of the cards there are a lot of jokers in that deck.

I'm aware of Venezuela's standing within OPEC. Doesn't change the fact that they are probably the most hated member of OPEC amongst themselves.

We're not talking about Venezuela going in and browbeating Kuwait and Saudi Arabia into cutting production, we're talking about a coup (or riots, or terrorism, or strikes, or any number of things) knocking out their production for six months and delivering a major shock to the market.

...at least, that's what I'm picturing.

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I'm aware of Venezuela's standing within OPEC. Doesn't change the fact that they are probably the most hated member of OPEC amongst themselves.

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OPEC is probably in precarious standing right now. Saudi is doing what Saudi wants and expecting the others to fall in line. If the other countries decide it makes more sense to not play nice, this may be the end of OPEC.

It doesn't matter if the majority hate Venezuela. They just need 1 or 2 ME countries on their side to stir crap up. OPEC is playing with fire right now.

Pretty sure we already did the thing with the government and that didn't work out well.

Would it be a bad thing if OPEC went away?

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Would it be a bad thing if OPEC went away?

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That's a nice organization you got there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.

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That's a nice organization you got there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.

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Tongue in cheek responses, but it was a serious question. What happens to the global oil market without OPEC to fix prices/supply?

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Tongue in cheek responses, but it was a serious question. What happens to the global oil market without OPEC to fix prices/supply?

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honestly in this moment, I don't think really anything. The saudi's aren't going to cut production, the other members aren't going to cut production. It's not like if Venezuela leads a massive OPEC revolt and the organization falls apart Saudi's gonna go "well I guess since we're not a member of OPEC we better cut production"

If OPEC blew up, they would all pump as much as possible and depress the price further and longer.

The notion that Venezuala is going to disrupt their own production is far fetched. They must produce as much as possible.

Without OPEC to regulate the price, oil would probably go from being a well controlled, stable commodity to a much more volatile one with violent price swings every 5-10 years....

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excuse my nativity

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I thought that was what Mary said when the shepherds arrived.

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somehow auto corrected from naivety, and i am a horribly speller

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If OPEC blew up, they would all pump as much as possible and depress the price further and longer.

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Ding ding

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Tongue in cheek responses, but it was a serious question. What happens to the global oil market without OPEC to fix prices/supply?

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I already said it earlier on this thread, OPEC going away isn't a bad thing. You would get closer to a true market price of oil, not this crap that's run by OPEC and speculators.

Agree

We can't even afford to it at these prices.

I've been wondering about that lately. You would think that a massive selloff would be the perfect time for us to really stock up. What does the process look like to make that happen? Would that help stabilize WTI?

SPR facts

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It wouldn't be a bad idea for U.S to increase the SPR at these low prices

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Capacity is 727 mmbbl...current storage is 691 mmbl....drop in the bucket to fill to capacity at this point

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SPR facts

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It wouldn't be a bad idea for U.S to increase the SPR at these low prices

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Capacity is 727 mmbbl...current storage is 691 mmbl....drop in the bucket to fill to capacity at this point

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i think he's talking about increasing the SPR, not just filling it up.

the SPR is typically very sour crude. Also, adding to it would make little to no dent in the overall global oil price. If they did decide to start buying reserves, the price would PROBABLY further drop.Psychologically because govt intervention is "needed" and everyone knows they are aloof with a lot of cash. Economically because the rush to fill the order will have the dogs eating each other alive to be the lowest cost supplier.

Adding to the SPR might make sense, but then again you could argue the overall value of the SPR is minimal since the increase US output. We don't have to worry about someone like OPEC turning off the tap and being SOL.

Todays oil report
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

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U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 387.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.

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Todays oil report
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

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U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 387.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.

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If I owned storage, wouldn't I be maxing it out due to the contango trade?

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html
Unusual conditions right now