quote:

---

quote:

---

I can tell you that the Houston housing market has already been down for months. 2014 was not that good of a year for Housing

---

Compared to 2013 it might not have been as good, but 2014 was an extremely good year for Houston housing. Saying otherwise is crazy even if your wife is in the industry.

---

I'm in mortgage so I talk to and work with Realtors. Most I'm talking to closed less business in 2014 than in 2013 and some by a lot. That guy's wife is right.

http://www.vox.com/2014/12/16/7401705/oil-prices-falling


Saying some countries need $100/bbl is misleading. Yes, they might need $100/bbl to balance their budgets. but this figure assumes no budget cuts and it assumes they need to balance their budget. How many times has the US had a balanced budget in the last 50 years?

Also any dollar figure depends on how many barrels they sell. If these countries cut production to prop up the price then they don't really accomplish anything. US competitors will gladly make up the supply difference. And the US can supply plenty of oil at $60. So this becomes the ceiling until demand increases enough to overtake supply.

The US can borrow a lot easier than Nigeria. And they can only cut so much from their budgets...at a point MEND is going to become active again and I wonder how the Nigerian government will handle both Boko Haram and MEND at the same time along with drastically reduced revenues to fund payoffs and their military.

There was a nationwide strike for a couple weeks when Nigeria cut the fuel subsidy to balance their budget, and that was when oil was $100.

There are too many unstable governments starved for cash with brewing unrest among their populations. As others have observed, oil is not exactly widgets manufactured in an anonymous rust belt town subject only to supply, demand, and occasionally snow. Normal supply and demand only apply between crises... there is plenty of oil, but also plenty of crises.

quote:

---

Commercial real estate will probably feel the effects after the residential market gets hit.

---

I work for a large advisor. People tapped the breaks in Nov and slammed them on in Dec. Assets are being pulled across the board, and I know of several large trophy assets that we're killed at committee and either re-priced or were pulled. I think 10-15% adjustment has happened, but there's very little you can point to that supports that. Sellers don't need or have to sell so they're pulling from the market and will reassess later in the year. It's a little uglier on the development side.

quote:

---

quote:

---

quote:

---

I can tell you that the Houston housing market has already been down for months. 2014 was not that good of a year for Housing

---

Compared to 2013 it might not have been as good, but 2014 was an extremely good year for Houston housing. Saying otherwise is crazy even if your wife is in the industry.

---

I'm in mortgage so I talk to and work with Realtors. Most I'm talking to closed less business in 2014 than in 2013 and some by a lot. That guy's wife is right.

---

True and false. If you're talking Houston as a whole, yes. However, regionally across Houston there are neighborhoods that have seen unreel growth and value bumps. I don't doubt Katy or Sugarland or Memorial have slowed. Oak Forest, Lazy Brook, Westchase, energy cooridor, and the Woodlands exploded.

quote:

---

quote:

---

quote:

---

quote:

---

I'm in mortgage so I talk to and work with Realtors. Most I'm talking to closed less business in 2014 than in 2013 and some by a lot. That guy's wife is right.

---

---

---

True and false. If you're talking Houston as a whole, yes. However, regionally across Houston there are neighborhoods that have seen unreel growth and value bumps. I don't doubt Katy or Sugarland or Memorial have slowed. Oak Forest, Lazy Brook, Westchase, energy cooridor, and the Woodlands exploded.

---

We sold our home in Atascocita last summer and from what our realtor said, the Humble/Kingwood area was going gang-busters. I think she said she had 30 closings in June and it was looking like July was going to be higher.

Rig counts are catching up to the bad news. Layoffs are right around the corner. Right now I would wager everyone is trying to hold out for as long as possible before executing the RIFs. At somepoint the rig counts do not justify the head count and we find out how valued we really are at that point.

A smart guy friend at a very large oil service co. Tells me the rig count will be down 500 plus from the high last summer by June.

No idea what that means for jobs.

quote:

---

A smart guy friend at a very large oil service co. Tells me the rig count will be down 500 plus from the high last summer by June.

No idea what that means for jobs.

---

Hard count 35 people per location. Not including service companies. Realistically close to 60 or 70 people.

I work for one of the 4 or 5 largest O&G Services companies out there. I can confirm that we've already (quietly) implemented across the board 15% budget reductions for 2015. Compared to most companies, our financials are actually in pretty good shape but still not great. I think the 15% reduction will be 25% - 30% by the end of the first quarter.

Some of the more experienced folks I've talked to have said there will be two different types of services companies as the next 6 months unfolds:
1) The handful of big boys (and there truly are only a few now) who will either roll the dice on long term growth and use this market dip as an opportunity to acquire the little guys for nickels on the dollar; or go through major RIF's, keep debt low and hunker down with a plan to jump back in when the market picks up. This second group could be the most dangerous to the economy, obviously, as they will lay off en masse, not hire and not spend on anything other than keeping the lights on.
2) The little guys, most of whom are in debt up to their eyeballs, will almost certainly go bankrupt or sell themselves to the big boys because they'll have no choice. They all banked on $70-90 oil and borrowed accordingly. Of course consistent, healthy prices of $60-$80 could keep some of the afloat.

I've been with non-O&G companies in other industries that went from the top of the world to practically non-existent and others who reduced workforce by 70% in a year, so nothing would be shocking to me regardless of the company. It's the new normal.

What industry are you in now, so I can know to avoid it...

WTI at $45.93, how low will it go?

It still has a good ways to go.

Re: Halliburton... Heard from my contact in HR that cuts are coming to my building this week... think I will go ahead and pack up some of my desk today just incase...

Sorry to hear about all of this guys. I work for a super major and wonder what the next several months holds for us if prices keep falling. Lots of projects are already being deferred.

Slaughter house today in our office.

Long-term, lower-ranked employees axed all over the place.

Service company? Operator? EPC?

quote:

---

Slaughter house today in our office.

Long-term, lower-ranked employees axed all over the place.

---

More details please. Estimated numbers too.

Foamcows-

Which office are you in?

quote:

---

WTI at $45.93, how low will it go?

---

My prediction is $31

quote:

---

Slaughter house today in our office.

Long-term, lower-ranked employees axed all over the place.

---

I'm not business-savy at all but this sure seems like a quick reaction to the falling prices. I guess this is how corporate business operate? Go all in when times are good, hit the panic button the second things downturn.

Yes, and that's why working for "the man" is the suck

quote:

---

quote:

---

Slaughter house today in our office.

Long-term, lower-ranked employees axed all over the place.

---

I'm not business-savy at all but this sure seems like a quick reaction to the falling prices. I guess this is how corporate business operate? Go all in when times are good, hit the panic button the second things downturn.

---

Never let a crisis go to waste. If your stock amd employee moral is already getting beat to ****, take advantage of it and do unpleasant things.

quote:

---

quote:

---

WTI at $45.93, how low will it go?

---

My prediction is $31

---

Yeah but on which day?

quote:

---

quote:

---

Slaughter house today in our office.

Long-term, lower-ranked employees axed all over the place.

---

I'm not business-savy at all but this sure seems like a quick reaction to the falling prices. I guess this is how corporate business operate? Go all in when times are good, hit the panic button the second things downturn.

---

Depending on the company, its probably not very knee-jerk as the picture on pricing is becoming a bit clearer at least on the ceiling side. I'm sure there are quite a few companies who weren't prepared for anything near what they are now.

RE: Houston real estate

Its not some mystery that needs anecdotal evidence from individual realtors. The numbers for the total market are readily available. HAR puts out a report every month and every year with the number and value of transactions. Haven't seen December yet or the totals for 2014. But every single month so far in 2014 had more $ value sold in 2014 than 2013 and most months a double digit percentage increase and a few with 20+% increases. Every month but May was also an increase in number of properties sold.

In 2013 total value sold was under $21B and just under 90k properties.

Without any sales in December we are already over $21B sold in 2014 and 90k for 2014.

If the premise that the individual realtor struggled in 2014 is true then my only guess is that 2013 brought everybody else into the business in 2014 and so everybody got a smaller piece of the pie in 2014.

quote:

---

Im a Global Sales Director in the Oil & Gas industry (focus on subsea) living in Houston and my wife is a Realtor with Remax.

I can tell you that the Houston housing market has already been down for months. 2014 was not that good of a year for Housing. People freaked out last year with all the news of a housing shortage due to Exxon coming in. Most of the movement was with people already here just moving around because Exxon hasn't opened up yet. Homes became over-priced and buyers just simply decided to opt out of purchasing until prices came down.

What is interesting now is that mortgage rates are the lowest they have been since June of 2013. This will get people interested in buying if they can or doing a Refinance. Exxon is still moving into their digs in The Woodlands at the end of 2015. That is when you will see the market pick up. People will be moving into the area and the freeway projects for expanding Hwy 249; finishing most of the Grand Parkway will be done before the end of 2015 and Hwy 290 expansion will not stop.

Deepwater Subsea projects have a 20-25 year life cycle. The price of oil isn't going to kill off those projects because they plan for fluctuations in the price over the life of the field. There will be some belt-tightening in the Subsea world and there will be some lay-offs. But the companies with low-debt and borrowing power will make it through. It is really hard to find experienced help in the offshore/deepwater subsea field and you don't layoff people that you worked hard to find/train. You will need all those folks when the market has its natural bounce back.

It takes 18 months to 2 years to make a subsea X-mas tree and most of the major projects can take twice that long or longer just to go from the planning stage to first-oil. Over the life of a field there are many requirements for maintenance, intervention and repair of existing equipment on the sea floor. The need to keep the oil flowing in deepwater subsea doesn't stop because the price of oil is low.

---

I have a really warped sense of humor. But, 3 hours after I posted this on TexAgs, I got laid off!

Freaking Irony...I can't help but laugh a bit.

Time for me to find my next job.

Good luck to you.

I dare say a bunch of us will be in the same boat here in the next few weeks.

That sucks TBL, sorry to hear it. Try not to take it too hard. I was laid off for about 6 months in early 2010. In hindsight, it was a blessing in disguise that took me from a dead-end opportunity to the job I currently have with a far better work environment.

Thanks for sharing your situation with the rest of us. Time to test the power of the Aggie Network.

quote:

---

quote:

---

Im a Global Sales Director in the Oil & Gas industry (focus on subsea) living in Houston and my wife is a Realtor with Remax.

I can tell you that the Houston housing market has already been down for months. 2014 was not that good of a year for Housing. People freaked out last year with all the news of a housing shortage due to Exxon coming in. Most of the movement was with people already here just moving around because Exxon hasn't opened up yet. Homes became over-priced and buyers just simply decided to opt out of purchasing until prices came down.

What is interesting now is that mortgage rates are the lowest they have been since June of 2013. This will get people interested in buying if they can or doing a Refinance. Exxon is still moving into their digs in The Woodlands at the end of 2015. That is when you will see the market pick up. People will be moving into the area and the freeway projects for expanding Hwy 249; finishing most of the Grand Parkway will be done before the end of 2015 and Hwy 290 expansion will not stop.

Deepwater Subsea projects have a 20-25 year life cycle. The price of oil isn't going to kill off those projects because they plan for fluctuations in the price over the life of the field. There will be some belt-tightening in the Subsea world and there will be some lay-offs. But the companies with low-debt and borrowing power will make it through. It is really hard to find experienced help in the offshore/deepwater subsea field and you don't layoff people that you worked hard to find/train. You will need all those folks when the market has its natural bounce back.

It takes 18 months to 2 years to make a subsea X-mas tree and most of the major projects can take twice that long or longer just to go from the planning stage to first-oil. Over the life of a field there are many requirements for maintenance, intervention and repair of existing equipment on the sea floor. The need to keep the oil flowing in deepwater subsea doesn't stop because the price of oil is low.

---

I have a really warped sense of humor. But, 3 hours after I posted this on TexAgs, I got laid off!

Freaking Irony...I can't help but laugh a bit.

Time for me to find my next job.

---

Damn man.

Dang TBL. I work for an E&P in their deepwater GOM operations. Scares the you know what out of me

Cream rises to the top amigo, you'll land on your feet in no time.