the O&G industry up in N Texas is largely corporate or the money side. There are not the massive numbers of " regular" employees there , mostly high paid overhead. If history holds these are the LAST ( even though they should be the FIRST ) jobs to be affected.
You MIGHT see a cheaper bottle of Chivas served at a luxo-box at Arlington stadium or perhaps they might not polish the gold elevator knobs at Neimans as often ...but thats about it for up there....

Work for a major OEM producer. Hope we hold our piss until a 2016 bounce back.

Like Ragoo said, maybe we can get rid of the fat... But the VPs will determine who that is.

quote:

---

company just sent out an email and message from ceo.

ceo took 15% cut
other execs 10%
office personnel 5%
boat crews - pay cuts of unmentioned amount.

---

are these the same bull**** cuts that my previous employer claimed?

i.e. they are cuts in salary and not in total compensation. so in reality they are closer to 1% for the ceo, 3% for the other execs and 4-5% for everyone else.

Is their any chance the equipment manufacturers will just hold steady, working through their backlog and get equipment deliveries back to a more reasonable timeframe?

Won't take too terribly long for that to happen with the pace of drilling dropping

quote:

---

Is their any chance the equipment manufacturers will just hold steady, working through their backlog and get equipment deliveries back to a more reasonable timeframe?

---

Hopefully if we don't see anymore cancelled orders. We have reduced production for certain products and were only ramping up to guaranteed orders in the backlog. If orders get cancelled... Then sure! We'll provide a happy quoted delivery date. Last thing we want is to shut down plants, though. The goal is to tighten/reduce our costs in 2015 per CEO.

The deliveries will come on time in a balance backlog and output. The backlog got really high this year for land rig equipment and we had some spikes causing our quotes to be crazy long. We have orders going out a year or two -like I said... I hope we keep our **** together and not start doing stupid stuff like letting people go you just hired two or three months ago.

We expect 300k job losses in the Houston area by mid Q1 of 2016. (O&G only). If you consider that O&G is a systemic risk factor though, the number jumps much higher.

Who is we?

Broker dealer

That number seems fairly steep...

That's 10% of the Houston workforce.

quote:

---

That's 10% of the Houston workforce.

---

No need to bring facts into this.

Easy to have happen. You will see a lot of the smaller E&P, service, and other companies that drove the boom go under. It's regressing back to pre-boom levels accounting for natural attrition.

Last figure I saw from the Railroad Commisioner stated that only 300K appeared on O&G industry payrolls.

Lee Tillman says 400K....

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/In-Texas-Oil-Boom-Job-Abound-Give-or-Take-5772992.php#/0

You might want to consider replacing whoever at your firm made that prediction......because that would be 51% of the total workforce in the United States for Oil & Gas.....

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18691

quote:

---

Overall, oil and natural gas production jobs in the United States increased from 292,846 annual jobs in 2003 to 476,356 in 2008, a 63% increase. Following the net loss of 54,323 oil and natural gas production jobs during the 2008-09 recession and relatively little national job growth, jobs in oil and natural gas production increased another 28% from 2009 to 2013, from 422,033 to 586,884.

---

Maybe he added an extra zero in that number?

quote:

---

You might want to consider replacing whoever at your firm made that prediction......because that would be 51% of the total workforce in the United States for Oil & Gas.....

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18691

quote:

---

Overall, oil and natural gas production jobs in the United States increased from 292,846 annual jobs in 2003 to 476,356 in 2008, a 63% increase. Following the net loss of 54,323 oil and natural gas production jobs during the 2008-09 recession and relatively little national job growth, jobs in oil and natural gas production increased another 28% from 2009 to 2013, from 422,033 to 586,884.

---

---

I think the 300k number includes the multiplier effect. Since most O&G jobs are relatively high paid jobs there is an estimate of a 3x to 4x multiplier for each O&G loss. This was easily seen in the 80's bust where hundreds of non-oilfield businesses shut down. Entire neighborhoods were damn near abandoned, home building stopped, massive numbers of retail and restaurants shuttered.. It was BRUTAL. I knew dozens of non O&G folks who lost EVERYTHING in the 80's bust and never worked a day in ANY O&G related job. I can see 300k lost if there is a significant number of O&G jobs lost in the Houston area.

^
This. The point being the "new" areas with a lot of O&G and industries tied to O&G are going to get hit hard. The hardest hit aren't going to be the people in O&G. They see what is coming. It's going to be the people that have no idea their company has exposure to the O&G industry. Real estate development, commercial lenders, etc. It's also going to pull a lot of capital out of midtown/oaklawn and the other areas around TC Jester (we think). Right now you've had a significant amount of overbuilding, and Perry Homes doesn't have a great record of sticking around when times get tough.

The issue is that Houston (In our opinion) isn't nearly as diversified as it looks on the surface. Plus, you have to realize the drop in energy helps basically everyone but Houston. When rates start rising, the developers and others that are already getting squeezed are going to get squeezed even harder. The rising rates will probably help the dollar strengthen against most international currencies making oil even cheaper. Basically, what is good for the US is not good for Houston.

quote:

---

This is NOT necessarily good for the nation. Short term gain as folks and energy intensive industries ( airlines) have a few more shekels in their pockets BUT remember this so-called economic recovery is a FARSE ! Other than the energy regions, virtually ALL of the so-called job growth has been government jobs and the burger flippers that support them. Just took a trip to the other "growth" region..the DC-Northern Va area. Not a DAMN single private job growth to be seen other than the service folks leeching off the government employees. The energy revolution, ALL DONE IN SPITE OF THAT kenyan maniac infesting the White House, has been the sole driving force in this jobless anemic fake "recovery" and without the energy sector this nation will likely fall back into another obama recession.

---

Preach

The agricultural sector had seen significant growth over the past 5-10 years. We got another huge bump after the ethanol subsidies started going down because our feed costs went down significantly.

quote:

---

quote:

---

You might want to consider replacing whoever at your firm made that prediction......because that would be 51% of the total workforce in the United States for Oil & Gas.....

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18691

quote:

---

Overall, oil and natural gas production jobs in the United States increased from 292,846 annual jobs in 2003 to 476,356 in 2008, a 63% increase. Following the net loss of 54,323 oil and natural gas production jobs during the 2008-09 recession and relatively little national job growth, jobs in oil and natural gas production increased another 28% from 2009 to 2013, from 422,033 to 586,884.

---

---

I think the 300k number includes the multiplier effect. Since most O&G jobs are relatively high paid jobs there is an estimate of a 3x to 4x multiplier for each O&G loss. This was easily seen in the 80's bust where hundreds of non-oilfield businesses shut down. Entire neighborhoods were damn near abandoned, home building stopped, massive numbers of retail and restaurants shuttered.. It was BRUTAL. I knew dozens of non O&G folks who lost EVERYTHING in the 80's bust and never worked a day in ANY O&G related job. I can see 300k lost if there is a significant number of O&G jobs lost in the Houston area.

---

Agreed. The o&g has a massive economic ripple effect in a number of regions. When o&g sneezes, the support and auxiliary industries take a real beating. Loss of jobs in o&g will mean major job losses elsewhere too. This will go beyond the vendors to banking, housing, retail, etc. Zero disposable income due to job loss will mean zero business transactions for folks down the supply chain.

quote:

---

We expect 300k job losses in the Houston area by mid Q1 of 2016. (O&G only). If you consider that O&G is a systemic risk factor though, the number jumps much higher.

---

While I get the ripple effect O&G has on every industry out there, it was not how it was stated.

And I still don't think you will see that many jobs lost in Houston total from this.

Isn't the GHA workforce about 3 million people?

So which is it? Is the 300k just oil and gas jobs as you said it does it include the trickle down jobs as you agreed earlier?

http://www.bauer.uh.edu/centers/irf/houston-updates.php
These folks seem to think overall jobs will net increase for houston but recognizes the loss of 50-60k (don't remember the exact number) of oil and gas jobs.

I think the analysis shown above is more reasonable. Also talks about the consolidation of field offices will like move jobs to houston.

I don't think an increase in Houston jobs is realistic but a 10% loss is a bit extreme unless oil drops another 50%.

Uh, government employed has declined dramatically under Obama.

quote:

---

Uh, government employed has declined dramatically under Obama.

---

You serious Clark?

Is natgas following Oil down the hole, broke $3?

I think US nat gas is going up long term once it's no longer stranded.

+1 for LostinLA.

Additionally, there's a lot downstream stuff coming online over the next few years that uses natty as feed stock. Dow, Exxon, and a few others have olefins / plastics plants under construction as we speak.

quote:

---

Uh, government employed has declined dramatically under Obama.

---

It all gets moved to firms

quote:

---

+1 for LostinLA.

Additionally, there's a lot downstream stuff coming online over the next few years that uses natty as feed stock. Dow, Exxon, and a few others have olefins / plastics plants under construction as we speak.

---

The article does address that. Read it. I think it gives a middle of the road prediction of what can happen. It doesn't imply that the jobs gained will be of the same variety as what will be lost.