TACO

Can we make just one thread not political?

Probably a really good day to open up a bull call spread on oil futures and look at September dates on the contracts. This whole issue is not priced in for how long the lingering effects will be around.

topher06 said:

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Can we make just one thread not political?

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What factors are affecting the price of oil and the industry at large? Do tell us.

techno-ag said:

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topher06 said:

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Can we make just one thread not political?

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OK. Why do you think the price of oil is going up and down?

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Duh, supply and demand.

Needing a few good Aggie Landmen...

Oil and Gas Landmen | TexAgs

Down to $83 this morning

Long time lurker, very rare poster coming to this thread for some advice.

My parents sold a 40 acre parcel in Leon County years ago and apparently retained 50% of the mineral rights. They just received a lease proposal (not from Comstock) and I would really appreciate some education, advice, and direction.

On the education front: Since they only own 50% of the minerals and not the surface rights, is it safe to assume the same company would also have to secure a lease from the other owner in order to put anything in production and generate any royalties? Is the "per net acre" fee for the lease that's quoted in the offer the actual number for my parent's 50% ownership or would that number be divided by two since they only own 50%?

Does anyone here have insight in to what "market rates" are for Leon county lease bonus and royalty percentages are these days? I looked at a map a couple months ago when the Comstock news broke and it looked like my parent's old place was just barely south of most active parcels but very close to them.

Lastly, since I am helping my parents with this, should I start with an O&G attorney who is familiar with the area or is there someone else that would be a more appropriate first step to better determine values and/or other companies to "pitch" a lease to? Any board recommendations for individuals or firms that would be helpful?

They aren't in a rush to get something done, but definitely want to pursue this opportunity as "bonus fun money" so getting something done with someone that actually has a chance to produce would be ideal.

Thank you!

FTAco07 said:

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On the education front: Since they only own 50% of the minerals and not the surface rights, is it safe to assume the same company would also have to secure a lease from the other owner in order to put anything in production and generate any royalties? Is the "per net acre" fee for the lease that's quoted in the offer the actual number for my parent's 50% ownership or would that number be divided by two since they only own 50%

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They don't necessarily HAVE to secure a lease from the other 50% mineral interest. They could carry that interest as an unleased cotenant if they have the appetite for it. I would assume they would give it every effort to lease the other 20 net acres, but it's not necessary to develop the minerals. You could own 1 net mineral acre and develop a tract.

The per net acre should be based on their 20 net mineral acres. So 20 acres * whatever amount they're offering as a bonus.

I don't have enough knowledge of Leon County to answer your other questions.

I do not know the market in Leon County, but will make a few comments.

Don't worry about the surface rights as the mineral rights are dominant which allows the mineral owner reasonable access.

Since you have 20 net mineral acres, which will have a fairly decent value, I would steer towards a oil gas attorney with knowledge of the activity in the area. I do not have any recommendations for this area.

Just my $0.02

No recs for an oil and gas attorney in Leon County. I would recommend not using Ty Wood or David Wallace which are often recommended on these forums for reasons I'll never understand.

I would recommend having an oil and gas attorney review any lease before your parents sign. When they sold the surface, there may have been a "no surface use" clause in the mineral reservation. If that is the case, their mineral lease will need a "no surface use" clause.

Thank you. Sending you a PM

txaggie_08 said:

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FTAco07 said:

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On the education front: Since they only own 50% of the minerals and not the surface rights, is it safe to assume the same company would also have to secure a lease from the other owner in order to put anything in production and generate any royalties? Is the "per net acre" fee for the lease that's quoted in the offer the actual number for my parent's 50% ownership or would that number be divided by two since they only own 50%

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They don't necessarily HAVE to secure a lease from the other 50% mineral interest. They could carry that interest as an unleased cotenant if they have the appetite for it. I would assume they would give it every effort to lease the other 20 net acres, but it's not necessary to develop the minerals. You could own 1 net mineral acre and develop a tract.

The per net acre should be based on their 20 net mineral acres. So 20 acres * whatever amount they're offering as a bonus.

I don't have enough knowledge of Leon County to answer your other questions.

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Having the stomach for it depends on if the lateral crosses their tract. The leases are pooled and the unleased are dropped completely.

You're on point though.

I can't offer on Leon county either. I'm all in reeves and that area.

techno-ag said:

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💚☕ pic.twitter.com/SKpuJ5LVlf

— Pepe Deluxe 🐸 (@deluxe_pepe) April 17, 2026

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Maybe an engineer or two can help me out. I think there is significant weight to this picture beyond the immediate feel goods.

If the Iran conflict carries on to the point where ME wells have to be shut in for maxed storage capacity issues, is there permanent damage to their recoverable amount of oil? Production rates?

I'm just thinking along the lines of water intrusion in the basins, scale buildup, asphaltene precipitation, compaction etc...

Are we running a parallel path where the US production (and more generally western hemisphere) becomes the dominant source in recoverable resources but also from a cost to lift standpoint? Seems like Permian/Oil Sands are getting cheaper and these issues appear to mean the ME could be regressing from a cost standpoint.

We'd have to solve the gas issue first.

Fair enough - let's assume the chance to be what I'm describing provides the motivation and capital to solve the gas issue.

Would those issues manifest to the degree that they could tip the balance in our favor?

It seems far fetched to think that whole ME would be shutin. I think SA said they had 60-80 days production of spare storage to go. I'm sure others are in similar situations. Maybe the more correct question would be...how long before Iran's production is permanently impaired?

Sims said:

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techno-ag said:

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💚☕ pic.twitter.com/SKpuJ5LVlf

— Pepe Deluxe 🐸 (@deluxe_pepe) April 17, 2026

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Maybe an engineer or two can help me out. I think there is significant weight to this picture beyond the immediate feel goods.

If the Iran conflict carries on to the point where ME wells have to be shut in for maxed storage capacity issues, is there permanent damage to their recoverable amount of oil? Production rates?

I'm just thinking along the lines of water intrusion in the basins, scale buildup, asphaltene precipitation, compaction etc...

Are we running a parallel path where the US production (and more generally western hemisphere) becomes the dominant source in recoverable resources but also from a cost to lift standpoint? Seems like Permian/Oil Sands are getting cheaper and these issues appear to mean the ME could be regressing from a cost standpoint.

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It is my understanding that the geology of the ME is far less impacted from shut ins that over here. Now it will take time to get stuff back up and running.

I think the other issue is more of demand destruction.

Think of using NG for power vs. solar power. Once I make the decision to switch to solar, while I still may use NG for power generation, all of the sudden, my demand will technically go down. Maybe I buy spot market LNG contracts or look at other investments to lower demand to not have to import energy. Or I look at other sources of power generation (Nuclear, coal, etc.)

But the longer this goes on, the greater the chance of demand destruction.

Another example is to look to Germany (and somewhat the EU) when Russia started the war; pains temporarily but now looking at alternative energy sources or more 'homegrown' sources (wind, solar, etc.)

~egon

New pipelines and export facilities for Permian LNG coming online in a year or so, too. More exports of Texas LNG to the rest of the world.

Since this is your first lease offer from Comstock, you are likely in Tier 3 or 4 acreage. It's a huge play, but they haven't ignored 40 acres in prime real estate.

Probably starting at $500 per acre with 20% royalty. Will likely bump up to $750 and 22.5%.

These are pooled wells. Comstock isn't going to be carrying 50%.

If you don't lease and your acreage isn't a wellbore tract? You get zero. After payout, you still get zero.

He said it wasn't Comstock. That being said, Comstock uses shell companies to lease for them as well.

Sims said:

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Fair enough - let's assume the chance to be what I'm describing provides the motivation and capital to solve the gas issue.

Would those issues manifest to the degree that they could tip the balance in our favor?

It seems far fetched to think that whole ME would be shutin. I think SA said they had 60-80 days production of spare storage to go. I'm sure others are in similar situations. Maybe the more correct question would be...how long before Iran's production is permanently impaired?

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Man, I'd love for there to be a standing energy policy in America that bridges administrations, but we haven't had one in decades. I just don't see how it happens here. We aren't state owned and the state, at best, leaves us alone.

PeekingDuck said:

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Sims said:

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Fair enough - let's assume the chance to be what I'm describing provides the motivation and capital to solve the gas issue.

Would those issues manifest to the degree that they could tip the balance in our favor?

It seems far fetched to think that whole ME would be shutin. I think SA said they had 60-80 days production of spare storage to go. I'm sure others are in similar situations. Maybe the more correct question would be...how long before Iran's production is permanently impaired?

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Man, I'd love for there to be a standing energy policy in America that bridges administrations, but we haven't had one in decades. I just don't see how it happens here. We aren't state owned and the state, at best, leaves us alone.

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I disagree. Sure there has been rhetorical differences between the parties, but in actual execution of political outcomes they have largely been the same (with the exception of the edges, exploration in Alaska and the Arctic). The export ban was Obama era move. The industry grew the most under Obama (2010-2014). Permitting on federal land that has been leased has been largely the same.


Administration wise, it's been business as usual regardless of who was in office. All of the political hurdles that really matter have been lifted by both parties. The only real influence has been the price of oil which has had a volatile 10-15 years.

I may be late to the party, missed another thread or just missed this discussion earlier in this thread. Currently what's happening in Iran has me questioning is Asia a generally oil barren area of the world? Alot of headlines focus on Iran selling oil to China, but I thought they actually have fields they produce from or at bare minimum know they exist. I understand planning/infrastructure/drilling/producing/refining can take enormous amounts of time, possibly decades depending on the scale you are wanting to get to. I think my perception of this area of the world as far as oil is concerned is wrong or at best skewed, can someone help me understand Asia as it pertains to oil? ELI5 is more than acceptable.

china produces something like 4-4.5 million barrels a day. but they have to import like 11 million barrels a day to have what they need.

most of their fields are late life or in the case of the shale fields, more difficult/costly than our shale fields in the US

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666759222000245

Here's a decent paper on Chinese shale oil.

So it paints a picture of reserves they know about, some they need to find out about, but the ones they know about consist of resources that aren't completely conducive to economical development. I guess I take for granted the kind of technology necessary for multi- well drilling on a single pad and RSS systems, this is all just another day technology here in the US. It mentioned that they MWD and RSS systems are heavily reliant on foreign expertise, but doesn't mention who.

I work for a major service co with strong presence in the RSS space including US unconventionals. Can confirm we have an opportunity pipeline in China unconventional development but it's not as simple as our tech solves x problem. Lots of issues in China.

Brent 126. FOMO traders out. Tweets don't work anymore. Reality setting in.