A consortium of US oil companies basically will have access to the Saudi Arabia of oil without major exploration spending. XOM made a new 52 week high oil in the 50s and trading a PE well above its historical average. US oil majors going to catch a huge bid.

This is largely overstated for Venezuela.

While you are probably right on their reserves being overestimated, there could also be a chance that these are underestimated, especially if you have more advanced and efficient (US) companies operating.

The gulf should benefit largely from this, right? The type of equipment you need to process their oil, isn't it pretty expensive, with only a few existing American refineries capable, mostly in the gulf? From what I've read, those refineries are already at capacity. But the oil is rich in ingredients that make a lot of high profit byproducts. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

My thinking is, let the dust settle, then short the **** out of Canadian oil. Bye bye crap Canadian oil.

txaggie_08 said:

---

---

Does that include all our federal leases and Alaskan and offshore that are currently off limits?

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

The gulf should benefit largely from this, right? The type of equipment you need to process their oil, isn't it pretty expensive, with only a few existing American refineries capable, mostly in the gulf? From what I've read, those refineries are already at capacity. But the oil is rich in ingredients that make a lot of high profit byproducts. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

My thinking is, let the dust settle, then short the **** out of Canadian oil. Bye bye crap Canadian oil.

---

Certain refineries / operators in the GC should benefit. Operators like Valero which have refineries that are capable of refining VZ heavy, sour crude - not all of the GC refineries are capable of doing so. Increase in the supply of VZ heavy, sour crude -> decrease in the input price (feedstock) for these refinery operators -> increase in margins if demand remains stable.

As of this post, WTI trading pretty dang green. Plenty of chop will make it's way in one way or the other (as always), but it should speak to the perceived downside risk to oil that was en vogue in regards to VZ over the weekend.

There are so many hoops to be jumped through and stars aligned in order to repair/update Venezuela's infrastructure and boost production, and that is assuming we are working with an amicable government there.

Hoping for it as it would be good for Texas in numerous ways aside from further depressing prices, but I'm not optimistic this early.

This meeting of oil execs with Trump is something.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

Sims said:

---

Hopefully Wirth and Chris Wright were elsewhere having serious discussions.

---

What serious discussion would Chris Wright be having?

Something about the next tweet Trump tells him to send?

Sims said:

---

Hopefully Wirth and Chris Wright were elsewhere having serious discussions.

---

They were.

Wirth is recovering from a knee replacement and couldn't travel

Ag CPA said:

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

---

It's too big of an agenda item for Trump. The majors will be in Venezuela faster than you think. Woods mentioned he was preparing a team to scope out the current condition of country infrastructure within two weeks. This administration isn't stupid, they understand the underlying conditions necessary to invest heavily in VZ. I will never bet against Trump when he really wants to get something done.

Ag CPA said:

---

La Bamba said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

---

It's too big of an agenda item for Trump. The majors will be in Venezuela faster than you think. Woods mentioned he was preparing a team to scope out the current condition of country infrastructure within two weeks. This administration isn't stupid, they understand the underlying conditions necessary to invest heavily in VZ. I will never bet against Trump when he really wants to get something done.

---

Well, it looks like the largest Major is already out and I'm sure XOM isn't going to lose any sleep over it; the have better options to deploy capital.

I support Trump but he is in over his head in this one.

---

Already out? Just cause Trump makes one petty comment because he didn't like one word from Woods, you think they're out of VZ?

The super majors are experts at dealing with the bribe games expected in third world countries. They've obviously outlasted Chavez, Maduro, Biden, Trump et al. They've had their assets seized multiple times and they're still standing. It's the devil you know to them at this point. The speed Trump is moving is very unsettling for those types of planners.

I'm hesistant to doubt Trump when he wants something done. He's a unique political figure in our lifetime and probably multiple lifetimes.

Woods is right though, there has to be something more than a unilateral declaration from Trump. Planning and execution is a window of time much longer than Trump's term.

Dreigh said:

---

La Bamba said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

La Bamba said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

---

It's too big of an agenda item for Trump. The majors will be in Venezuela faster than you think. Woods mentioned he was preparing a team to scope out the current condition of country infrastructure within two weeks. This administration isn't stupid, they understand the underlying conditions necessary to invest heavily in VZ. I will never bet against Trump when he really wants to get something done.

---

Well, it looks like the largest Major is already out and I'm sure XOM isn't going to lose any sleep over it; the have better options to deploy capital.

I support Trump but he is in over his head in this one.

---

Already out? Just cause Trump makes one petty comment because he didn't like one word from Woods, you think they're out of VZ?

---

Did you listen to the meeting? I think Exxon are out (more precisely...they were never in) because of what they said at the meeting...that Venezuela is currently uninvestible. In the past Exxon has had their VZ assets seized multiple times. They're not interested in pouring capital and personnel into a play located in a country with a proven track record of instability, volatility, and a brand of corruption that is so chaotic that no one can figure out how to thrive within it.

This is not about Trump and what he did or didn't say. It's about experts speaking the truth on a business matter they understand very, very well.

---

Losing the Sakhalin-1 asset in Russia is probably fresh on XOM's mind as well.

The risk/reward profile has to be pretty good to work on $billion+ multi-year projects in geopolitical tinderboxes.

cajunaggie08 said:

---

La Bamba said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

La Bamba said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

---

It's too big of an agenda item for Trump. The majors will be in Venezuela faster than you think. Woods mentioned he was preparing a team to scope out the current condition of country infrastructure within two weeks. This administration isn't stupid, they understand the underlying conditions necessary to invest heavily in VZ. I will never bet against Trump when he really wants to get something done.

---

Well, it looks like the largest Major is already out and I'm sure XOM isn't going to lose any sleep over it; the have better options to deploy capital.

I support Trump but he is in over his head in this one.

---

Already out? Just cause Trump makes one petty comment because he didn't like one word from Woods, you think they're out of VZ?

---

They aren't out because of Trump. They are out because they dont see it as a wise use of capital spending at this time. Then Trump had to get the last word and said he wouldnt allow them in after they said they are out.

The fact that you had the president telling the publicly-traded oil companies they should invest billions for the good of America should be a red flag that this isn't the best choice for shareholders.

---

They've never said they were out. They made their current position known and now Trump has to consider that. Trump's words are nothing but his usual public, 8th grade art of the deal crap. Trump claiming that they are responsible for their assets being seized is idiotic.

This is a work in progress.

La Bamba said:

---

Dreigh said:

---

La Bamba said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

La Bamba said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

---

It's too big of an agenda item for Trump. The majors will be in Venezuela faster than you think. Woods mentioned he was preparing a team to scope out the current condition of country infrastructure within two weeks. This administration isn't stupid, they understand the underlying conditions necessary to invest heavily in VZ. I will never bet against Trump when he really wants to get something done.

---

Well, it looks like the largest Major is already out and I'm sure XOM isn't going to lose any sleep over it; the have better options to deploy capital.

I support Trump but he is in over his head in this one.

---

Already out? Just cause Trump makes one petty comment because he didn't like one word from Woods, you think they're out of VZ?

---

Did you listen to the meeting? I think Exxon are out (more precisely...they were never in) because of what they said at the meeting...that Venezuela is currently uninvestible. In the past Exxon has had their VZ assets seized multiple times. They're not interested in pouring capital and personnel into a play located in a country with a proven track record of instability, volatility, and a brand of corruption that is so chaotic that no one can figure out how to thrive within it.

This is not about Trump and what he did or didn't say. It's about experts speaking the truth on a business matter they understand very, very well.

---

I listened to the whole thing. And what I'm saying is XOM won't be out if VZ takes off. Woods said un-investable at the current moment but I can absolutely guarantee you they want back in, they're just wanting assurances from the US government to make the conditions right. If Trump wants VZ bad enough he'll make the conditions right for the majors. It's too important for him not too.

There is too much to lose for XOM if VZ works out and Chevron becomes the US gov'ts golden child.

---

Yes, Woods said VZ is un-investable at the current moment. What, exactly and fully, is the road from un-investible to investible for XOM (or any other non-Chevron operator)? I can't pretend to know what all it will take, but I imagine a scope of overhaul and implementation of order that is pretty massive (and probably lengthy). The notion that if a president wants something bad enough he will absolutely get it is something I just can't cosign right now. And the notion that there is too much to lose for XOM if it works out? It implies a risk asymmetry that appears to totally overlook the downside risk to investing in VZ (which has already led to lost assets more than once!).

XOM has to look a bit beyond the agenda of this current administration and whatever assurances they may vocalize (which, in my opinion, is just cheap talk at this point with little to back it up...time will tell). What in the world will it look like to operate in VZ after this admin is over?

La Bamba said:

---

Dreigh said:

---

La Bamba said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

La Bamba said:

---

Ag CPA said:

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-venezuela-oil-executives-white-house-meeting.html

This looks like a raw deal for the producers, no support from the government besides "security guarantees" yet expected to spend $100B on marginal prospects at best. No potential recovery of settlement awards for COP or XOM.

Besides CVX ramping up incremental production I don't see this going anywhere, Trump will be gone before there is time to get the infrastructure rebuilt.

---

It's too big of an agenda item for Trump. The majors will be in Venezuela faster than you think. Woods mentioned he was preparing a team to scope out the current condition of country infrastructure within two weeks. This administration isn't stupid, they understand the underlying conditions necessary to invest heavily in VZ. I will never bet against Trump when he really wants to get something done.

---

Well, it looks like the largest Major is already out and I'm sure XOM isn't going to lose any sleep over it; the have better options to deploy capital.

I support Trump but he is in over his head in this one.

---

Already out? Just cause Trump makes one petty comment because he didn't like one word from Woods, you think they're out of VZ?

---

Did you listen to the meeting? I think Exxon are out (more precisely...they were never in) because of what they said at the meeting...that Venezuela is currently uninvestible. In the past Exxon has had their VZ assets seized multiple times. They're not interested in pouring capital and personnel into a play located in a country with a proven track record of instability, volatility, and a brand of corruption that is so chaotic that no one can figure out how to thrive within it.

This is not about Trump and what he did or didn't say. It's about experts speaking the truth on a business matter they understand very, very well.

---

I listened to the whole thing. And what I'm saying is XOM won't be out if VZ takes off. Woods said un-investable at the current moment but I can absolutely guarantee you they want back in, they're just wanting assurances from the US government to make the conditions right. If Trump wants VZ bad enough he'll make the conditions right for the majors. It's too important for him not too.

There is too much to lose for XOM if VZ works out and Chevron becomes the US gov'ts golden child.

---

VZ taking off would require their government and citizens being on board with global oil majors coming in. And by being on-board, i mean ACTUALLY on-board. Not reluctantly doing so because the US government/military is telling you to get on board. Based on the last election, it appears the majority of Venezuela is done with the Maduro regime. But that is still a far cry with them being ok with US based oil majors coming in. Like what was previously said, these oil majors are used to dealing with pay to play governments and locations where the local population isn't welcoming. But if the belief that the VZ government is only going to play nice for as long as a Trump admin is in place, then I can see them waiting to see how our november elections go before committing the money.

DVN and Coterra