Dreigh said:
Premium said:
With OPEC cutting production, but the USA and others picking up the slack, OPEC may have no other choice but to try to put everyone out of business again by driving down the price. Wouldn't be surprised to see something in the 30's in the next 12 months. Can you imagine if the wars ended AND OPEC started producing more...
OPEC market flushing doesn't really work. I guess they could try again, but after years of measured rebalancing, it would be bizarre (and hilarious).
I understand the dooming and glooming though. Tough to stay positive sometimes!
The problem is the only OPEC country really willing to cut production is Saudi. How deep and how long are they really willing to cut. Besides cracks are really weak right now so you're going to eventually see refinery crude runs get cut at the marginal refiners. Libya's bbls still appear to be floating even though OPEC talked about delaying cuts... It's hard to see a bull case at the moment. And if OPEC does ultimately lift their cuts, the washout will be brutal. Just saying, it might be time to start buttoning down the hatches. If you assume OPEC pre-announced production ramps, it is a great opportunity for Permian producers to re-evaluate their capex plans. Real chance any wells drilling today will see IP with crude in the $50s or possibly even worse.
I just don't see how the market can clear 2MM bbls/day from Saudi without much lower prices and contango.