I thought Stampede was sanctioned awhile ago and MD2 was sanctioned in the last month or two?
Houston..we have a problem....
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Last: 12 hrs ago by TxAg20
Wish the Israelis would hurry up with Leviathan.
MD2 is starting to procure long lead items just waiting on the partners to sign off before it is 100% official.
I am fairly certain stampede was sanctioned before the crash...
Appo was sanctioned in summer of 2015
LostInLA07 said:
I thought Stampede was sanctioned awhile ago and MD2 was sanctioned in the last month or two?
That is correct. Stampede shooting for first oil next year. MD Phase 2 (now known as Big Dog) is in the sanctioning process right now. A full build EPC with Samsung Heavy Industries in South Korea.
So much for that whole "BP cares about the US" bit.
Timmy John and entourage know of what they speak. Stampede, then Appo. Both are great projects and doing well but still have some challenges ahead.
The only surprise on MD2 is the top sides also being done in Korea. Normally for GOM projects those are done here and integrated at the Kiewitt yard outside Corpus. All the hulls are built overseas.
As bad as the market is I am almost positive BP could name their price and the Korean yard gladly accepted.
As bad as the market is I am almost positive BP could name their price and the Korean yard gladly accepted.
In general, they didn't get their cost down from naming their price. They got the price down by finally listening to what their suppliers were telling them regarding design, standardization, and specs.
I couldn't tell you regarding Korea.
I couldn't tell you regarding Korea.
There are obvious political reasons for building the topsides in the US but another reason they have always been built here is simply due to the fact that there were no ships capable of transporting large fully integrated FPUs... now there are two.
MD2 hull and top sides will be fabricated and integrated in Korea simply driven by price - no political influences here. BP has taken a lot of lessons from the industry; LLOG Who Dat may have been one of the most important by demonstrating Korean yard capability at cost competitive pricing.
Yeah, I'm struggling to come up with a single floater hull that was built in the US. Maybe an elderly tanker repurposed as an FPSO?tommyjohn said:
The only surprise on MD2 is the top sides also being done in Korea. Normally for GOM projects those are done here and integrated at the Kiewitt yard outside Corpus. All the hulls are built overseas.
As bad as the market is I am almost positive BP could name their price and the Korean yard gladly accepted.
Sorry, LLOG Delta House not Who Dat referencing previous post.
Last deep water facility in recent memory built in the states was BHP Neptune TLP IIRC.
After doing a couple of jobs with the Koreans, and working for BP early in my career, I can assure you the cost of the facility will be nowhere near whatever they are claiming today.
We will see how this experiment goes but LLog and BP are two very different companies.
We will see how this experiment goes but LLog and BP are two very different companies.
OCEN99 said:Yeah, I'm struggling to come up with a single floater hull that was built in the US. Maybe an elderly tanker repurposed as an FPSO?tommyjohn said:
The only surprise on MD2 is the top sides also being done in Korea. Normally for GOM projects those are done here and integrated at the Kiewitt yard outside Corpus. All the hulls are built overseas.
As bad as the market is I am almost positive BP could name their price and the Korean yard gladly accepted.
The recent Tubular Bells Spar hull was built at Gulf Marine Fabricators in Aransas Pass. Not a screaming success I might add.
The Koreans and Fins are truly the best at building hull structures. Topsides, not so much.
Yeah, the Finns have a lot of experience with spar hulls in particular. I know McDermott built a couple in Dubai and Batam but didn't get much momentum going on that front.Entourageag07 said:OCEN99 said:Yeah, I'm struggling to come up with a single floater hull that was built in the US. Maybe an elderly tanker repurposed as an FPSO?tommyjohn said:
The only surprise on MD2 is the top sides also being done in Korea. Normally for GOM projects those are done here and integrated at the Kiewitt yard outside Corpus. All the hulls are built overseas.
As bad as the market is I am almost positive BP could name their price and the Korean yard gladly accepted.
The recent Tubular Bells Spar hull was built at Gulf Marine Fabricators in Aransas Pass. Not a screaming success I might add.
The Koreans and Fins are truly the best at building hull structures. Topsides, not so much.
For all the guys still lucky to have a job but working on Christmas
A Toolpusher's Night Before Christmas
'Twas the night before Christmas,
when all through the rig,
Not a roughneck was stirring,
the moon was quite big.
The wireline was hung
from the derrick with care
In hopes that the service hands
soon would be there.
The company man was nestled
all snug in his bed,
While visions of hydrocarbons
danced in his head.
When out on the floor
there arose such a clatter
I sprang from the doghouse
to see what was the matter.
The mud pit was rising,
so lively and quick
I knew in a moment
it must be a kick!
More rapid than eagles
the driller's plans shaping,
He called to the floorhands,
down painting and scraping.
So up to the rig floor
the roughnecks they flew,
They closed in the rams,
the annular too!
Then down in the mud room,
my heart was a stopper,
We quickly dumped barite
into the hopper.
The mud weight was rising,
the pit level steady.
The kick was subsiding,
my relief was in ready.
When what to my wondering
eyes should appear,
But a miniature sleigh,
and eight tiny reindeer.
With a little old driver,
his eyes how they twinkled!
And a beard as white as snow,
his face drawn and wrinkled.
Once on the casing board,
he climbed out of the sleigh,
Then slid down the standpipe,
and to me made his way.
He spoke not a word,
but produced with great caring,
A suite of yule logs that
were hydrocarbon-bearing.
Then to my amazement,
he reached in his sack,
And gave me some targets
on a subsurface map.
As I stood there quite dazed,
he ran to his sleigh,
And before I could thank him,
they all flew away.
But I heard him exclaim,
as he rang a small bell,
"Merry Christmas to all,
and to all a good well!"
A Toolpusher's Night Before Christmas
'Twas the night before Christmas,
when all through the rig,
Not a roughneck was stirring,
the moon was quite big.
The wireline was hung
from the derrick with care
In hopes that the service hands
soon would be there.
The company man was nestled
all snug in his bed,
While visions of hydrocarbons
danced in his head.
When out on the floor
there arose such a clatter
I sprang from the doghouse
to see what was the matter.
The mud pit was rising,
so lively and quick
I knew in a moment
it must be a kick!
More rapid than eagles
the driller's plans shaping,
He called to the floorhands,
down painting and scraping.
So up to the rig floor
the roughnecks they flew,
They closed in the rams,
the annular too!
Then down in the mud room,
my heart was a stopper,
We quickly dumped barite
into the hopper.
The mud weight was rising,
the pit level steady.
The kick was subsiding,
my relief was in ready.
When what to my wondering
eyes should appear,
But a miniature sleigh,
and eight tiny reindeer.
With a little old driver,
his eyes how they twinkled!
And a beard as white as snow,
his face drawn and wrinkled.
Once on the casing board,
he climbed out of the sleigh,
Then slid down the standpipe,
and to me made his way.
He spoke not a word,
but produced with great caring,
A suite of yule logs that
were hydrocarbon-bearing.
Then to my amazement,
he reached in his sack,
And gave me some targets
on a subsurface map.
As I stood there quite dazed,
he ran to his sleigh,
And before I could thank him,
they all flew away.
But I heard him exclaim,
as he rang a small bell,
"Merry Christmas to all,
and to all a good well!"
I admit the past two christmases I was either working or stressed about work due to a big project hitting off in the new year so while I'm unemployed at least I can enjoy christmas.
There are no holidays in the oil patch.
Can confirm. Offshore now.
Having kids and missing important events is what sparked for me to end my field career and move into engineering/management. Still on call at all times but at least it's with my family; unless the sheet hits the fan.
For those of you guys in the industry, can you share either 2017 bullish/bearish thoughts on the following companies from a stock price perspective? Thanks!
Occidental
Pioneer
Comstock
Apache
Concho
Occidental
Pioneer
Comstock
Apache
Concho
OXY- bull: laggard in 2016. Bear: divi is still too big a % of cash flow, still outspending to support divi, valuation very expensive ... I'm a bear here
PXD: bull: still improving on their completions in the Permian, guidance looks beatable this year, they are vertically integrated so advantages when service prices turn. Bear: expensive on valuation, not as much upside to crude (hedged up to $60)... I'm a bull vs mega caps like Oxy. Bear v's mid caps
APA: Alpine High and Midland growth most important for the stock in 2017. Bull: apache is cheap Permian relative to PXD/CXO/Oxy. Bear: alpine high is too variable / unproven. Permian position is not as blocky v's peers, can't drill as many long laterals over time...
CXO: bull: bell weather Permian. Good execution company. Big frac and long laterals will lead to outperformance in 2017. Bears: question the companies ability to hit growth, valuation expensive
PXD: bull: still improving on their completions in the Permian, guidance looks beatable this year, they are vertically integrated so advantages when service prices turn. Bear: expensive on valuation, not as much upside to crude (hedged up to $60)... I'm a bull vs mega caps like Oxy. Bear v's mid caps
APA: Alpine High and Midland growth most important for the stock in 2017. Bull: apache is cheap Permian relative to PXD/CXO/Oxy. Bear: alpine high is too variable / unproven. Permian position is not as blocky v's peers, can't drill as many long laterals over time...
CXO: bull: bell weather Permian. Good execution company. Big frac and long laterals will lead to outperformance in 2017. Bears: question the companies ability to hit growth, valuation expensive
CXO just scratching surface in Wolfcamp in Northern DB.
They have a hard time with cost structure on the deeper (more expensive) targets versus shallower targets which have less casing strings and less drill time. Operating in New Mexico due to casing string regulations and other regulations inherently makes it more expensive to operate. Them and Devon need to bring down their D&C costs in the Northern DB to really exploit the Wolfcamp up there - they definitely have strong results in shallower lower EUR targets. CXO just recently started using frac crews besides Haliburton. A good question here is why did it take them so long to get other cheaper frac service providers. Fortunately they ended up getting new vendors in and everyone will benefit - except Hal.
They have a hard time with cost structure on the deeper (more expensive) targets versus shallower targets which have less casing strings and less drill time. Operating in New Mexico due to casing string regulations and other regulations inherently makes it more expensive to operate. Them and Devon need to bring down their D&C costs in the Northern DB to really exploit the Wolfcamp up there - they definitely have strong results in shallower lower EUR targets. CXO just recently started using frac crews besides Haliburton. A good question here is why did it take them so long to get other cheaper frac service providers. Fortunately they ended up getting new vendors in and everyone will benefit - except Hal.
CONGRATS to SC-AG. Looks like he is the winner of the contest. Stay tuned for your giganticgoid wondermous prize package....AgLA06 said:Buck Compton said:Here's how everyone on TexAgs guessed.GarlandAg2012 said:
I'm the one who is in a group with a bet. Unfortunately this quarter I have someone $.01 below me and $.13 above me so I have to be spot on to win.
Update.
There is a prize package?! I would have guessed if I knew I might win something.
I thought we were guessing Price is Right style. Highest without going over.
SC-AG
Joined:
Sep 14, 2005
Posts:
619
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Reminds me of a project I worked on years ago. Had a ton of data points, but the r^2 value was atrocious. The engineer wanted to throw out the data and start over because it was ugly. But if you just held the plot in front of you, your eyeballs could clearly see a directional trend. Sure, the slope was anybody's guess, but the trend was unmistakable.
What's funny here is that some high-paid planners went up to Mt Sinai, and delivered the oil prices for their 2017 budget numbers. I bet you the average guess of their employees would give a better number.
What's funny here is that some high-paid planners went up to Mt Sinai, and delivered the oil prices for their 2017 budget numbers. I bet you the average guess of their employees would give a better number.
94chem said:
Reminds me of a project I worked on years ago. Had a ton of data points, but the r^2 value was atrocious. The engineer wanted to throw out the data and start over because it was ugly. But if you just held the plot in front of you, your eyeballs could clearly see a directional trend. Sure, the slope was anybody's guess, but the trend was unmistakable.
What's funny here is that some high-paid planners went up to Mt Sinai, and delivered the oil prices for their 2017 budget numbers. I bet you the average guess of their employees would give a better number.
You can bet your ass they used strip or a bank deck. I don't know of any oil company that studies the macro economics of pinning the tail on the donkey and inserts it materially into any budget. Now they may have a hard leaning on where it'll go, which plays into the hedging decision.
Pretty amazing how a lot of stocks have far exceeded or near their summer 2014 highs before the collapse despite oil prices and profits still way down.
That's 1 point for the buy and hold crowd
That's 1 point for the buy and hold crowd
Why is the natural gas price down 11% today?
Weather forecasts now looking like a more normal winter for the next couple of weeks v's previous expectations of a polar vortex
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