For me, if you're a HOF today, then you're a HOF in 2 years, even if you're at the end of your career and not playing well.

I guess there is an argument to be made about Arenado. Playing in Colorado really makes it hard to judge. His ballpark-adjusted #s aren't special.

wOBA From 2014-2022 (Arenado's prime)
1. Bryant - .375
2. Arenado - .375
3. Bregman - .372
4. Turner - .371
5. Donaldson - .369
6. Rendon - .367
7. Ramirez - .361
8. Beltre - .360
9. Riley - .359
10. Devers - .358

wRC+ From 2014-2022 (Arenado's prime) - ballpark adjusted
1. Bregman - 139 (3474 PA)
2. Turner - 136 (4220)
3. Donaldson - 135 (4671)
4. Bryant - 134 (4019)
5. Rendon - 129 (4207)
6. Ramirez - 128 (4699)
7. Machado - 127 (5361)
8. Riley - 125 (1858)
9. Arenado - 125 (5317)
10. Muncy - 125 (2720)

If you're a back-end top 10 offensive player at your position during your prime, are you a HOFer? I think the voters will put him in quickly. They're not going to care about playing in Colorado and the defense is pretty damn elite.

While we're on the topic of 3B. We're going to have some fun discussions in the next 10 years. Current fWAR leaderboard.

1. Jose Ramirez - 58.5
Age 33
Just 1 more good year, and he's getting in even without a major award or milestone

2. Manny Machado - 57.6
Age 33
His flashes of greatness (20 and 22) were probably better than JRam, but a sustained prime isn't nearly as good. Started so young, he's going to hit some cool milestones. He's likely going to get in.

3. Nolan Arenado - 51.4
See above

4. Alex Bregman - 43.3
Age 32
He's still got some serious work to do. His '18-'19 top everyone else's peak on this list. But he's gotta stay good until 35/36 to have a chance. Something like 4 seasons of ~3 WAR. I think playing in Chicago at this point in his career is going to negatively impact him. He should have stayed in Boston if he wanted the HOF.

5. Matt Chapman - 35.1
Age 33
Hall of very good. I actually enjoyed his defense more than Arenado's.

6. Eungenio Saurez - 33.1
Age 34
Not gonna sniff Cooperstown, but I hope he keeps smashing HRs and gets to 400+.

Add in Muncy, too, and this has been quite the third base era. Borderline, 4 (more likely 3) 3B HOFers playing at the same time, along with several Hall of Very Good types. Looking ahead the next batch isn't nearly as fun. Devers moved off 3B. Paredes & Riley are solid. I guess the only real hope right now of an all-timer is Caminero, but it's entirely too early to know.

You know my feelings on Colorado. I don't think anyone who plays there for the main part of their career belongs in the HOF. The home/away splits for everyone are Grand Canyon wide. It takes a very good player and makes them look like a HOfer.

Helton and Walker are great examples. They are Babe Ruth at home and average away. It's not the altitude it's the massive OF gaps and where defenders have to play because of the carry.

Farmer1906 said:

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For me, if you're a HOF today, then you're a HOF in 2 years, even if you're at the end of your career and not playing well.

I guess there is an argument to be made about Arenado. Playing in Colorado really makes it hard to judge. His ballpark-adjusted #s aren't special.

wOBA From 2014-2022 (Arenado's prime)
1. Bryant - .375
2. Arenado - .375
3. Bregman - .372
4. Turner - .371
5. Donaldson - .369
6. Rendon - .367
7. Ramirez - .361
8. Beltre - .360
9. Riley - .359
10. Devers - .358

wRC+ From 2014-2022 (Arenado's prime) - ballpark adjusted
1. Bregman - 139 (3474 PA)
2. Turner - 136 (4220)
3. Donaldson - 135 (4671)
4. Bryant - 134 (4019)
5. Rendon - 129 (4207)
6. Ramirez - 128 (4699)
7. Machado - 127 (5361)
8. Riley - 125 (1858)
9. Arenado - 125 (5317)
10. Muncy - 125 (2720)

If you're a back-end top 10 offensive player at your position during your prime, are you a HOFer? I think the voters will put him in quickly. They're not going to care about playing in Colorado and the defense is pretty damn elite.

While we're on the topic of 3B. We're going to have some fun discussions in the next 10 years. Current fWAR leaderboard.

1. Jose Ramirez - 58.5
Age 33
Just 1 more good year, and he's getting in even without a major award or milestone

2. Manny Machado - 57.6
Age 33
His flashes of greatness (20 and 22) were probably better than JRam, but a sustained prime isn't nearly as good. Started so young, he's going to hit some cool milestones. He's likely going to get in.

3. Nolan Arenado - 51.4
See above

4. Alex Bregman - 43.3
Age 32
He's still got some serious work to do. His '18-'19 top everyone else's peak on this list. But he's gotta stay good until 35/36 to have a chance. Something like 4 seasons of ~3 WAR. I think playing in Chicago at this point in his career is going to negatively impact him. He should have stayed in Boston if he wanted the HOF.

5. Matt Chapman - 35.1
Age 33
Hall of very good. I actually enjoyed his defense more than Arenado's.

6. Eungenio Saurez - 33.1
Age 34
Not gonna sniff Cooperstown, but I hope he keeps smashing HRs and gets to 400+.

Add in Muncy, too, and this has been quite the third base era. Borderline, 4 (more likely 3) 3B HOFers playing at the same time, along with several Hall of Very Good types. Looking ahead the next batch isn't nearly as fun. Devers moved off 3B. Paredes & Riley are solid. I guess the only real hope right now of an all-timer is Caminero, but it's entirely too early to know.

---

I think you've got the line in the right spot....between Arenado and Bregman.

I don't think Bregman is too old to make up the ground I think he needs to to get into the group above

Mathguy64 said:

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You know my feelings on Colorado. I don't think anyone who plays there for the main part of their career belongs in the HOF. The home/away splits for everyone are Grand Canyon wide. It takes a very good player and makes them look like a HOfer.

Helton and Walker are great examples. They are Babe Ruth at home and average away. It's not the altitude it's the massive OF gaps and where defenders have to play because of the carry.

---

But Babe Ruth was Babe Ruth at the Polo Grounds and it's 258' RF wall

Looking back, it's weird how often they came in groups of three at third base.

late50s/60s (a little bit of a reach)

• Eddie Matthews: 52-68
• Brooks Robinson: 55-77
• Ron Santo: 60-74

Late 70s/80s prime

• Schmidt: 72-89
• Brett: 73-93
• Molitor: 78-98

80s/Early 90s

• Boggs: 82-99

Late 90s/00s prime

• Chipper: 93-12
• Rolen: 96-12
• Beltre: 98-18

10s/early 20s prime

• JRam 13-??
• Arenado 13-??
• Machado 12-??

I'm going to the White Sox v Diamondbacks next week. I hope I don't get to see him.

Kirby Puckett is the only HOF whose career started after I was born that I haven't seen play....there are a handful of more recent guys that I missed that probably will get in (Posey, Grienke, Utley) but I'm trying to limit that number!

I disagree with the mantra of "if you are a hall of famer now it doesn't matter what you do in the future" in regards to Arenado. (TLDR version, Coors complicates your statement)

I think there are really two ways into the hall of fame

1 - Sustained goodness with a bit of great sprinkled over an extremely long career that leads to you achieving some counting stats that make your case seem stronger than it actually is. These are guys like Biggio, who were really good ball players, but their case was solidified by longevity and counting stats. Biggio gets 3000 hits, in the hall pretty quickly with a 112 career OPS+, Jeff Kent finishes with 2400 hits, he has to get elected by the veteran's committee with a 124 career OPS+.

2 - A supernova prime that includes MVP awards, CYs, that is just so good that your counting stats don't really matter. This is Mike Trout, Sandy Koufax etc. guys who were just so great for a period of time that you don't care if they retire, get hurt or fall off a cliff statistically in the late part of their career.

Sometimes guys from category 2 stay good enough to fit in both categories, but the inverse is impossible. If Biggio had retired in 2001 (the last time he was a 3.0 WAR player) he finishes at 2100 hits and doesn't get in to the hall easily if at all. If Mike Trout retires today, he gets in first ballot with only 1700 career hits.

So all that said, for me Arenado is a category one guy that has to show sustained goodness. As you showed, he's at the bottom among his peers when you do ballpark adjusted numbers for him.

So the question is, does his time in Colorado significantly distort who he really is... His great year in StL in 2022 seemed to say no, but now he's stacked 4 straight terrible years after that.

Scott Rolen is actually a pretty good comp, and he had to wait 6 years on the ballot and that's without the Coors field question. I'm just saying, the longer he plays like crap, the more I see him as a defensive specialist who benefited mightily from Coors to make himself look like a HoF level player. Because for me RIGHT now, he's a borderline guy in my category 1, 2000ish hits, 350+ HRs, the defense... BUT if I and the voters start to question the value of the numbers he put up at Coors... now he hasn't yet done enough to get in... I need 2500 hits and 400 HRs for him to be in.

AgRyan04 said:

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Kirby Puckett is the only HOF whose career started after I was born that I haven't seen play....there are a handful of more recent guys that I missed that probably will get in (Posey, Grienke, Utley) but I'm trying to limit that number!

---

I actually saw Arenado last year on opening day in StL and he hit a homerun.

We've got a trip planned this year to go through Boston, Queens, Philly, Pittsburgh and I should be able to check off some more future HoF guys as long as they play.

Soto (trending as 1st ballot)
Lindor (probably)
Harper (probably)
Schwarber (won't get in, but might get consideration)
Skenes (trending the right direction)

We lived in Colorado and California before recently relocating to the midwest so I'm finally getting to see some of the parks in this area. We'll do Wrigley later this summer for the first time.

What has been fun for me looking back is uncovering players that I saw before I even considered them HOF candidates

I saw Mariano Rivera in '96, Roy Halliday in '02, David Ortiz in '02, Miguel Cabrera in '03, etc.

I have a full blown nerd spreadsheet on it....it's been fun as I've gotten back into the game over the last 4 or 5 years

The pitchers are the toughest....and relievers even more so. That's going to catch me in the next few years - guys like Chapman, Jensen, and Kimbrel

Three names I keep coming back to

Zach Wheeler

Jacob deGrom

Chris Sale

For me I think all 3 deserve to get into the hall of fame. All 3 are dominating again this year, and even though none of them are going to finish their careers with the kind of counting stats that usually get you into the hall of fame, I think they all deserve to be in.

Sale might be the easiest case to make, he's at 151 wins, and might be able to pitch a couple more years helping him get close'ish to 180-190 wins for his career. He's already at 60 WAR, and he's got a CY. His ERA+ is 141 for his career which is WAY higher than guys like Mussina (123) and Sabathia (116) that have recently gotten in.


Wheeler is a more complicated case because it took him several years to really figure it out. From 2013-2019 he dealt with injuries and was JAG eating innings. His ERA+ during that period was exactly 100... nothing to indicate what was about to happen. From 2020-now he's been incredibly dominant with a ERA+ of 146 over that span. This gives him a 7-year prime that is now clearly at a HoF level. He's only 35 years old so if he can maintain this for 3 more years, then that is now a 9 year run of dominance, and I think should get him in. His counting stats are woeful though, He's at 115 wins, so top end for him is finishing with like 160 and overall WAR is at 40.9 right now.

deGrom, as you all know is my passion project. He's perhaps the best by rate stat pitcher in baseball history but injuries have taken away his ability to add volume to his resume. Well, he put up 170 innings of sub 3.00 ERA ball last year and he's on pace to do that again this year. He has one more year on his contract with Texas, so he could in theory do that again. That'd get him up closer to 2000 IP for his career. His career ERA+ is 151 which is HIGHER than Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Justin Verlander, Walter Johnson etc. deGrom is 6th all time in ERA+ behind Rivera, two dead ball era guys, Pedro and Kershaw. deGrom has the second best WHIP of all time. The best K/BB rate in baseball history.

Basically, what got me thinking was that if these three guys can't get in to the HoF, who else is ever going to get in with the way starters are used now and with how prevalent injuries are.

I think Sale needs one more CY to get himself over the hump

For me

Sale is the biggest lock and has the best case. He could retire today, and I'd put him in.

deGrom has been heavily discussed. His peak is so so good, he's in for me. Now he's added some late-career bonus points.

Wheeler is worth a discussion. He's the #3 on his list for me by a fair margin. His HOF case has been built in his 30s. I think he will need to stick around a few more years and stay good to get in. He seems like the type who becomes the new bar for pitchers. Is your career better than Wheeler's? If yes, then you're in.

Edit: adding some Wheeler stats

Since 2010 (Wheeler started in 2013)

• 8th in WAR - 41.9 (behind Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Sale, deGrom, & Cole)
• 11th in ERA (min 1000 IP) - 3.27 (behind Kershaw, deGrom, Sale, Fried, Verlander, Snell, Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg, & Price)
• 10th in FIP (min 1000 IP) - (behind deGrom, Kershaw, Sale, Strasburg, Webb, Cole, Fried, Scherzer, Kluber)