For me, if you're a HOF today, then you're a HOF in 2 years, even if you're at the end of your career and not playing well.

I guess there is an argument to be made about Arenado. Playing in Colorado really makes it hard to judge. His ballpark-adjusted #s aren't special.

wOBA From 2014-2022 (Arenado's prime)
1. Bryant - .375
2. Arenado - .375
3. Bregman - .372
4. Turner - .371
5. Donaldson - .369
6. Rendon - .367
7. Ramirez - .361
8. Beltre - .360
9. Riley - .359
10. Devers - .358

wRC+ From 2014-2022 (Arenado's prime) - ballpark adjusted
1. Bregman - 139 (3474 PA)
2. Turner - 136 (4220)
3. Donaldson - 135 (4671)
4. Bryant - 134 (4019)
5. Rendon - 129 (4207)
6. Ramirez - 128 (4699)
7. Machado - 127 (5361)
8. Riley - 125 (1858)
9. Arenado - 125 (5317)
10. Muncy - 125 (2720)

If you're a back-end top 10 offensive player at your position during your prime, are you a HOFer? I think the voters will put him in quickly. They're not going to care about playing in Colorado and the defense is pretty damn elite.

While we're on the topic of 3B. We're going to have some fun discussions in the next 10 years. Current fWAR leaderboard.

1. Jose Ramirez - 58.5
Age 33
Just 1 more good year, and he's getting in even without a major award or milestone

2. Manny Machado - 57.6
Age 33
His flashes of greatness (20 and 22) were probably better than JRam, but a sustained prime isn't nearly as good. Started so young, he's going to hit some cool milestones. He's likely going to get in.

3. Nolan Arenado - 51.4
See above

4. Alex Bregman - 43.3
Age 32
He's still got some serious work to do. His '18-'19 top everyone else's peak on this list. But he's gotta stay good until 35/36 to have a chance. Something like 4 seasons of ~3 WAR. I think playing in Chicago at this point in his career is going to negatively impact him. He should have stayed in Boston if he wanted the HOF.

5. Matt Chapman - 35.1
Age 33
Hall of very good. I actually enjoyed his defense more than Arenado's.

6. Eungenio Saurez - 33.1
Age 34
Not gonna sniff Cooperstown, but I hope he keeps smashing HRs and gets to 400+.

Add in Muncy, too, and this has been quite the third base era. Borderline, 4 (more likely 3) 3B HOFers playing at the same time, along with several Hall of Very Good types. Looking ahead the next batch isn't nearly as fun. Devers moved off 3B. Paredes & Riley are solid. I guess the only real hope right now of an all-timer is Caminero, but it's entirely too early to know.

You know my feelings on Colorado. I don't think anyone who plays there for the main part of their career belongs in the HOF. The home/away splits for everyone are Grand Canyon wide. It takes a very good player and makes them look like a HOfer.

Helton and Walker are great examples. They are Babe Ruth at home and average away. It's not the altitude it's the massive OF gaps and where defenders have to play because of the carry.

Farmer1906 said:

---

For me, if you're a HOF today, then you're a HOF in 2 years, even if you're at the end of your career and not playing well.

I guess there is an argument to be made about Arenado. Playing in Colorado really makes it hard to judge. His ballpark-adjusted #s aren't special.

wOBA From 2014-2022 (Arenado's prime)
1. Bryant - .375
2. Arenado - .375
3. Bregman - .372
4. Turner - .371
5. Donaldson - .369
6. Rendon - .367
7. Ramirez - .361
8. Beltre - .360
9. Riley - .359
10. Devers - .358

wRC+ From 2014-2022 (Arenado's prime) - ballpark adjusted
1. Bregman - 139 (3474 PA)
2. Turner - 136 (4220)
3. Donaldson - 135 (4671)
4. Bryant - 134 (4019)
5. Rendon - 129 (4207)
6. Ramirez - 128 (4699)
7. Machado - 127 (5361)
8. Riley - 125 (1858)
9. Arenado - 125 (5317)
10. Muncy - 125 (2720)

If you're a back-end top 10 offensive player at your position during your prime, are you a HOFer? I think the voters will put him in quickly. They're not going to care about playing in Colorado and the defense is pretty damn elite.

While we're on the topic of 3B. We're going to have some fun discussions in the next 10 years. Current fWAR leaderboard.

1. Jose Ramirez - 58.5
Age 33
Just 1 more good year, and he's getting in even without a major award or milestone

2. Manny Machado - 57.6
Age 33
His flashes of greatness (20 and 22) were probably better than JRam, but a sustained prime isn't nearly as good. Started so young, he's going to hit some cool milestones. He's likely going to get in.

3. Nolan Arenado - 51.4
See above

4. Alex Bregman - 43.3
Age 32
He's still got some serious work to do. His '18-'19 top everyone else's peak on this list. But he's gotta stay good until 35/36 to have a chance. Something like 4 seasons of ~3 WAR. I think playing in Chicago at this point in his career is going to negatively impact him. He should have stayed in Boston if he wanted the HOF.

5. Matt Chapman - 35.1
Age 33
Hall of very good. I actually enjoyed his defense more than Arenado's.

6. Eungenio Saurez - 33.1
Age 34
Not gonna sniff Cooperstown, but I hope he keeps smashing HRs and gets to 400+.

Add in Muncy, too, and this has been quite the third base era. Borderline, 4 (more likely 3) 3B HOFers playing at the same time, along with several Hall of Very Good types. Looking ahead the next batch isn't nearly as fun. Devers moved off 3B. Paredes & Riley are solid. I guess the only real hope right now of an all-timer is Caminero, but it's entirely too early to know.

---

I think you've got the line in the right spot....between Arenado and Bregman.

I don't think Bregman is too old to make up the ground I think he needs to to get into the group above

Mathguy64 said:

---

You know my feelings on Colorado. I don't think anyone who plays there for the main part of their career belongs in the HOF. The home/away splits for everyone are Grand Canyon wide. It takes a very good player and makes them look like a HOfer.

Helton and Walker are great examples. They are Babe Ruth at home and average away. It's not the altitude it's the massive OF gaps and where defenders have to play because of the carry.

---

But Babe Ruth was Babe Ruth at the Polo Grounds and it's 258' RF wall

Looking back, it's weird how often they came in groups of three at third base.

late50s/60s (a little bit of a reach)

• Eddie Matthews: 52-68
• Brooks Robinson: 55-77
• Ron Santo: 60-74

Late 70s/80s prime

• Schmidt: 72-89
• Brett: 73-93
• Molitor: 78-98

80s/Early 90s

• Boggs: 82-99

Late 90s/00s prime

• Chipper: 93-12
• Rolen: 96-12
• Beltre: 98-18

10s/early 20s prime

• JRam 13-??
• Arenado 13-??
• Machado 12-??

I'm going to the White Sox v Diamondbacks next week. I hope I don't get to see him.

Kirby Puckett is the only HOF whose career started after I was born that I haven't seen play....there are a handful of more recent guys that I missed that probably will get in (Posey, Grienke, Utley) but I'm trying to limit that number!

I disagree with the mantra of "if you are a hall of famer now it doesn't matter what you do in the future" in regards to Arenado. (TLDR version, Coors complicates your statement)

I think there are really two ways into the hall of fame

1 - Sustained goodness with a bit of great sprinkled over an extremely long career that leads to you achieving some counting stats that make your case seem stronger than it actually is. These are guys like Biggio, who were really good ball players, but their case was solidified by longevity and counting stats. Biggio gets 3000 hits, in the hall pretty quickly with a 112 career OPS+, Jeff Kent finishes with 2400 hits, he has to get elected by the veteran's committee with a 124 career OPS+.

2 - A supernova prime that includes MVP awards, CYs, that is just so good that your counting stats don't really matter. This is Mike Trout, Sandy Koufax etc. guys who were just so great for a period of time that you don't care if they retire, get hurt or fall off a cliff statistically in the late part of their career.

Sometimes guys from category 2 stay good enough to fit in both categories, but the inverse is impossible. If Biggio had retired in 2001 (the last time he was a 3.0 WAR player) he finishes at 2100 hits and doesn't get in to the hall easily if at all. If Mike Trout retires today, he gets in first ballot with only 1700 career hits.

So all that said, for me Arenado is a category one guy that has to show sustained goodness. As you showed, he's at the bottom among his peers when you do ballpark adjusted numbers for him.

So the question is, does his time in Colorado significantly distort who he really is... His great year in StL in 2022 seemed to say no, but now he's stacked 4 straight terrible years after that.

Scott Rolen is actually a pretty good comp, and he had to wait 6 years on the ballot and that's without the Coors field question. I'm just saying, the longer he plays like crap, the more I see him as a defensive specialist who benefited mightily from Coors to make himself look like a HoF level player. Because for me RIGHT now, he's a borderline guy in my category 1, 2000ish hits, 350+ HRs, the defense... BUT if I and the voters start to question the value of the numbers he put up at Coors... now he hasn't yet done enough to get in... I need 2500 hits and 400 HRs for him to be in.

AgRyan04 said:

---

Kirby Puckett is the only HOF whose career started after I was born that I haven't seen play....there are a handful of more recent guys that I missed that probably will get in (Posey, Grienke, Utley) but I'm trying to limit that number!

---

I actually saw Arenado last year on opening day in StL and he hit a homerun.

We've got a trip planned this year to go through Boston, Queens, Philly, Pittsburgh and I should be able to check off some more future HoF guys as long as they play.

Soto (trending as 1st ballot)
Lindor (probably)
Harper (probably)
Schwarber (won't get in, but might get consideration)
Skenes (trending the right direction)

We lived in Colorado and California before recently relocating to the midwest so I'm finally getting to see some of the parks in this area. We'll do Wrigley later this summer for the first time.

What has been fun for me looking back is uncovering players that I saw before I even considered them HOF candidates

I saw Mariano Rivera in '96, Roy Halliday in '02, David Ortiz in '02, Miguel Cabrera in '03, etc.

I have a full blown nerd spreadsheet on it....it's been fun as I've gotten back into the game over the last 4 or 5 years

The pitchers are the toughest....and relievers even more so. That's going to catch me in the next few years - guys like Chapman, Jensen, and Kimbrel

Three names I keep coming back to

Zach Wheeler

Jacob deGrom

Chris Sale

For me I think all 3 deserve to get into the hall of fame. All 3 are dominating again this year, and even though none of them are going to finish their careers with the kind of counting stats that usually get you into the hall of fame, I think they all deserve to be in.

Sale might be the easiest case to make, he's at 151 wins, and might be able to pitch a couple more years helping him get close'ish to 180-190 wins for his career. He's already at 60 WAR, and he's got a CY. His ERA+ is 141 for his career which is WAY higher than guys like Mussina (123) and Sabathia (116) that have recently gotten in.


Wheeler is a more complicated case because it took him several years to really figure it out. From 2013-2019 he dealt with injuries and was JAG eating innings. His ERA+ during that period was exactly 100... nothing to indicate what was about to happen. From 2020-now he's been incredibly dominant with a ERA+ of 146 over that span. This gives him a 7-year prime that is now clearly at a HoF level. He's only 35 years old so if he can maintain this for 3 more years, then that is now a 9 year run of dominance, and I think should get him in. His counting stats are woeful though, He's at 115 wins, so top end for him is finishing with like 160 and overall WAR is at 40.9 right now.

deGrom, as you all know is my passion project. He's perhaps the best by rate stat pitcher in baseball history but injuries have taken away his ability to add volume to his resume. Well, he put up 170 innings of sub 3.00 ERA ball last year and he's on pace to do that again this year. He has one more year on his contract with Texas, so he could in theory do that again. That'd get him up closer to 2000 IP for his career. His career ERA+ is 151 which is HIGHER than Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Justin Verlander, Walter Johnson etc. deGrom is 6th all time in ERA+ behind Rivera, two dead ball era guys, Pedro and Kershaw. deGrom has the second best WHIP of all time. The best K/BB rate in baseball history.

Basically, what got me thinking was that if these three guys can't get in to the HoF, who else is ever going to get in with the way starters are used now and with how prevalent injuries are.

I think Sale needs one more CY to get himself over the hump

For me

Sale is the biggest lock and has the best case. He could retire today, and I'd put him in.

deGrom has been heavily discussed. His peak is so so good, he's in for me. Now he's added some late-career bonus points.

Wheeler is worth a discussion. He's the #3 on his list for me by a fair margin. His HOF case has been built in his 30s. I think he will need to stick around a few more years and stay good to get in. He seems like the type who becomes the new bar for pitchers. Is your career better than Wheeler's? If yes, then you're in.

Edit: adding some Wheeler stats

Since 2010 (Wheeler started in 2013)

• 8th in WAR - 41.9 (behind Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Sale, deGrom, & Cole)
• 11th in ERA (min 1000 IP) - 3.27 (behind Kershaw, deGrom, Sale, Fried, Verlander, Snell, Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg, & Price)
• 10th in FIP (min 1000 IP) - (behind deGrom, Kershaw, Sale, Strasburg, Webb, Cole, Fried, Scherzer, Kluber)

I'm all in on Schwarber train now. He's not a lock for 500 HRs quite yet, but he's still got 4 more years on his deal after this season and he's only going to have to average like 25 HRs a year to get to 500. If he maintains his current pace of 50 per season... then you start to think seriously about him hitting 600 for his career.

Outside of the steroid users, everyone with over 500 is in. This was the Adam Dunn argument back in the day, but he fell short of 500. I'm pretty sure Schwarber is going to get there. But he's going to get there with a WAR that is embarrassingly low because of his terrible defense when he does play the field and the WAR penalty assessed to DHs.

For a while, I was skeptical that just barely eclipsing 500 would be enough for him, but now I feel pretty confident that barring injuries he's going to end up at least in the 550 range. Add to that his status as an all time great teammate and his post season heroics, and his case starts to take shape.

Verlander has given up his quest for 300.

Will Randy Johnson be the last pitcher to win 300 games? Verlander will have pitched 21 seasons in the majors, but didn't manage it. His 162 game average shows 16 wins per 162 games, which would have been enough if he had made all his starts every year that he pitched - but dividing 556 appearances by 21 seasons yields only 24.47 appearances per year on average, well less than the 33 or 34 per if he was healthy all year every year.

With Verlander's retirement there were several stories about the impossibility of 300 in our new era.

When you do the math you realize just how unlikely it is we will see another one.

You could get there by being a 20 game winner for 15 straight years. So for pitchers that are drafted coming out of college like Skenes, that'd mean his whole career from 22 to 37 years old he'd need to win 20 per year.... well right now he's averaging 10 wins per year so he only needs to pitch 30 years to get to 300.

If we reset the number to 15 wins per year, that means for a full 20 years you have to win 15 on average. But even that seems unlikely with how the game is played now. There is only one guy in the league that has topped 15 wins the last 2 years (Rodon) and that streak will end this year.

Baseball loves round numbers, but I'm thinking something more like 225 makes sense as the new benchmark for wins.

I think the win benchmark goes out the window. DeGrom and Sale are coming soon. They'll be under 150 and 200 and get in easily. Cole has a shot at 200 but after him, I don't think anyone gets to 200 after him for a very very very long time.

Edit: Kershaw didn't even get to 225.

Adam Dunn should have received more consideration for the Hall of Fame...

because he was a player ahead of his time -- the original mister one-true-outcome of the 21st century

49% of his career plate appearances were home runs (462), walks (1,317), or strikeouts (2,379)

he paved the way for players like Schwarber to be accepted or appreciated despite all the K's

by the way...Dunn also had six 100-RBI seasons, so he did more than just hit home runs

Schwarber has some work to do to catch Dunn in career hits, runs, and RBI

Neither of them should sniff the HOF.

I think Adam Dunn is undersold for how good of a hitter he was. In his real prime from 21-30 years old he was a .903 OPS guy with a 133 OPS+ and 354 of his homers. His problem is that he fell off a cliff starting at his age 31 season and was retired by 34. Had he maintained his prime production even until he was 35 he would have reached 500 homers (finished at 462) and would have had a more compelling argument. The WAR was never going to be there because of how severely DHs are punished.

Schwarber is a bit different because his prime started a bit later and he lost essentially 2 full seasons (one to injury in 2016 and the other Covid year in 2020). But now he is just stacking monster offensive seasons. His age 28-33 seasons he's got a .874 OPS and a 137 OPS plus. During that spam he's averaging 48.8 homers per year. It's a big if, but if he keeps this up through his contract he's going to be deep into 500 homer territory with a chance to go for 600. And while he's a clear giant step below Jim Thome as a hitter, if he could end his career like Thome did hitting another 140 homers in his age 36-41 seasons, then 650 is in play for Schwarber.

All of these are big ifs, but if he keeps mashing the home run totals are going to be eye catching and that might be enough. If relievers can get in to the hall pitching 70 innings a year, surely we should have a pathway for DHs whose WAR is artificially held down by the DH penalty. Especially a DH like Schwarber who is going to remembered as the 2md best of his generation behind Shohei.

Oddity related to Justin Verlander that I came across today:

Tim Lincecum (b. 1984) is younger than Verlander (b. 1983).

Lincecum last played in 2016. Ten years ago.

shifting gears...

will there come a time when career slash lines are considered as important as career counting numbers for the Hall of Fame?

and the player this may benefit (or apply to) is Yordan

his career OPS is currently .974 -- which is phenomenal...especially outside the steroid era. His OPS will likely decline in his mid-30's, but probably stay above .900 -- which is still outstanding

however due to injuries, work stoppages, etc.., Yordan may not reach 400 career HR's or 2,000 career hits

is there hope for the Hall if he doesn't reach those milestones?

checking the all-time OPS career leaders...

the modern (non-steroid) player with the highest career OPS...who is not in the Hall of Fame is...

Lance Berkman at .943 career OPS

Carlos Delgado would be next at .929

then Joey Votto at .921

otherwise every player (non-roider) above career .900 OPS is in

How did Helton catch a stray being lumped with Raines?

I am very pro Berkman to be in the HOF. The disrespect to let him fall off after 1 year is wild. I am grown to think Delgato probably deserves to be in too. I think he compares well to McGriff and Helton.

It's impossible to know, but I don't think Helton is in without the Coors effect. At least with Larry Walker we have his Montreal days to let us know he could be an all star outside of Coors.

Helton had a career .855 OPS on the road and 1.048 at Coors. He also hit 80 more homers at Coors than on the road. I like Helton, but .855 OPS first basemen aren't usually good candidates for the hall. McGriff had to wait forever as an .888 OPS guy and Delgado has struggled to get in with a .929 OPS.

For comparison, Berkman was a .940 plus OPS guy at home and on the road. His only real split worth mentioning is that his OPS for his career was almost 1.000 batting left handed and only .797 batting right handed.

And just to back up my claim a bit more RE: Helton, John Olerud finished with a .860 OPS and didn't get in, Ryan Howard and Pete Alonso are also guys that hover around that number. It just depends on if you buy the Coors numbers being who he really is, or if the road numbers are who he is. I tend to think he's more .855. If that's who he is, then he's more like Mark Teixeira and Richie Sexson than a HoF'er.

Goldschmidt is at .880 and probably gets in eventually, but when you look at 1st basemen sorted by OPS, being above .880 is kind of a cut line of sorts where we start to see Killebrew, McCovey, McGriff, Freeman, Cabrera, Votto above that line.

But the only real reason I mentioned Helton is because he got in despite low volume counting stats and despite any bias against Coors. Lance's critical issue is being below 2000 hits due to his career ending early and his last 2 years being injury riddled. As dumb as it is, I think he's in if he had just surpassed 2000 hits. And this will always be my issue with the HoF, is it the hall of numbers? or the hall of great players? Sometimes those groups overlap, but sometimes you have to look at a player beyond their counting stats and decide if they are great or not. With Berkman, his .943 OPS slots him in ABOVE Willy Mays and Hank Aaron and right below Ty Cobb. He's a great hitter and should be in. Why have the threshold be 10 seasons of service time if what the hall really wants is 20 years of number accumulation?

Pete Alonso is trending toward being a very interesting case

already has 285 career home runs -- might reach 300 this season -- at age 31

his career OPS is .853 -- which is very good

he plays every day -- has four seasons with 160+ games played -- gets 600 at-bats per season

so 500 home runs is in play

kind of funny...

Alonso is a 5-time all-star. Bagwell was a 4-time all-star

but Alonso is nowhere near the all-around player that Bagwell was

career WAR is telling: 25.0 vs. 79.9

Yeah, Bagwell was a very complete player - and is criminally underrated. Hit for power and average, excellent patience at the plate, great baserunner, and a Gold Glover at 1B.

But all anyone really cares about now is power

Nolan Arrenado got hit 2,000 Monday. One of 6 players all time with 2,000+ hits, 10+ Gold Gloves and 350+ HR. He should get to 400+ HR.

Nolan is in as long as that career avg stays above .270, IMO.

Living in Phoenix and getting to watch him every day has opened my eyes on him. He's really a great 3B.

I don't think anyone is going to care if he's .273 or .267. He's going to get in for his dominance defensively while being an above average hitter with tons of pop.

I think Arenado has probably done enough even though the last 4 years he's been a replacement level player. I don't like the Coors field effect on his numbers either, but his top 3 MVP year in StL is probably enough for voters to be convinced that he would have been good in his prime outside of Coors as well.

I never think it's a good idea for guys who are kind of borderline to hang around for a long time once they decline, so we'll see what impact that has on his case if he does spend another year or two as a well below average player.

Another case that got brought up again yesterday was Salvy Perez, his manager called him "a hall of famer" which is nice of him to do, but I think he's going to fall short unless the sympathy vote for catchers really helps him out. His career WAR is at 35, and headed in the wrong direction as he's a negative WAR this year. I've said it a bunch on this thread, but my baseline in most cases is someone winning MVPs or at least finishing in the top 3 a few times to establish that they were in fact one of the top players of their generation. That's why Buster Posey doesn't bother me despite really low counting stats, but Salvy has never finished above 7th in the MVP voting, and he's only gotten votes three times in his career. (Posey got MVP votes 7 times including winning in 2012)