Offensively, Blue Jays will stay flexible but people here at GM Meetings see the most likely spots for upgrade as corner OF, 2B & 3B in that order.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) November 5, 2024

Farmer1906 said:

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Offensively, Blue Jays will stay flexible but people here at GM Meetings see the most likely spots for upgrade as corner OF, 2B & 3B in that order.

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) November 5, 2024

"In the order" kind of takes TOR out of the Bregman sweepstakes too.

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Ben's Take
Bregman's MVP-contender days are probably over, but he still looks like a perennial All-Star to me, and he's somehow only 30 despite playing in the ALCS seven times already. But while his rsum is spectacular the Hall of Fame isn't out of the question, depending on how voters feel about the banging scheme a ton of red flags in his 2024 season have me lower on him than Adames on a going-forward basis.

His walk rate dropped by nearly half this year, and his contact quality also dipped slightly. He's never had sterling raw batted ball data, and without all the walks juicing his OBP, he's one-dimensional at the plate; his lift-and-pull approach is great for tucking homers into the Crawford Boxes, but it produces plenty of weak fly outs too. This was his worst offensive season other than two flukes: an injury-shortened 2021 and his abbreviated 2016 debut. He played his normal excellent defense at third, which acts as a nice value buffer, but he looks more like a complementary bat than the guy you build your offense around these days.

Maybe it's too simplistic of me, but I think Bregman will end up back on the Astros. He's part of the culture there, one of the few players who's been on the team for their entire run of excellence. They're at the tail end of a contention cycle, which fits well with his age. It fits with the team's goals, too; having your worst season in nearly a decade and then letting one of your best players go is a bad look. That's not to say there won't be another team that tries to get Bregman, but the path of least resistance involves a reunion with Houston.

Player Notes
From 2022-24, Bregman was one of the best third basemen in baseball. He might not have been peak juiced-ball Bregman, a player in the upper echelon of the sport at any position, but he was still among the best at the hot corner, delivering three straight four-plus win seasons. Bregman's appeal comes from being solid on both ends of the ball. His defense is very good (he just won his first Gold Glove and might boast some underappreciated versatility), he strikes out at a very low rate (94th-percentile strikeout rate), and he just posted a 118 wRC+. That mark was fifth among qualified third basemen in 2024 (and first among third base free agents), but it also constitutes a full-season career low. As Bregman enters free agency in advance of his age-31 season, what that offensive dip signals will be front and center. Is it a sign of the aging curve doing its work, or does Bregman's second half (134 wRC+) show he simply had to overcome some temporary early season struggles?

To answer that, I think you need to zoom in on the skill that has carried Bregman's offense during his long tenure in Houston: his success pulling the ball. Bregman's elite bat control has allowed him to take advantage of Houston's Crawford Boxes, but when you're heavily reliant on pull-side contact in the air, timing issues can impact your bat path and lead to the batted ball profile Bregman saw in April. Those issues aside, it seems like pulling the ball is still a skill he has in his bag. This season, his .492 wOBACON on pulled batted balls was in line with his 2023 (.486) and a tick behind his 2022 (.516). In the right park, he has a good chance of continuing his offensive prowess and providing top-of-the-position production. ER

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What we’re hearing about the Astros at the GM Meetings - https://t.co/beXcHmYrDX

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) November 6, 2024

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The Astros have had internal discussions about trading setup man Ryan Pressly, according to two people briefed on the conversations, perhaps a signal that Brown is exploring avenues to get further away from the luxury tax. Most outside approximations put the Astros around $10 million below the first threshold when accounting for their projected arbitration salaries.

Pressly will make $14 million next season, but his contract contains a full no-trade clause, giving him autonomy to veto or approve any potential deal. The situation would require both sides working together to find a suitable landing spot for Pressly, who turns 36 in December.

Asked on Tuesday afternoon whether he is exploring trading pieces of his major-league roster, Brown didn't dismiss the possibility.

"If we can use a major-league piece to get two pieces that will help us solve problems, I would welcome that if that deal shows up," Brown said. "But I don't want to trade major-league pieces and weaken the team. It has to make sense for the team and it has to feel like we're getting better."

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Dana Brown, also: “I don’t know if we should be in the business of blaming coaches for a lack of production, particularly when these same players have had success with these same hitting coaches." - https://t.co/CX6UCbQVi4

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) November 6, 2024

W said:

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$27 MM or $28 MM per season for Bregman seems like a very big risk -- after the first 2 years of the contract (post-2026)

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TRM said:

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Get your applications in.

https://www.teamworkonline.com/baseball-jobs/houstonbaseball/houston-astros/research-analyst-research-development-2076968

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• Bring back Breggy. (5/140 or 6/162) No explanation is needed. This deal eats up the large majority of the FA money.
• Sign Paul Goldschmidt to platoon at 1B with Singleton. He was just league-average last year, but he hit 134 wRC+ vs LHP (Singleton 124 vs RHP). He's already made 163 M. He's from the Woodlands. He's already 37. Come on home on the cheap.
• Being back Jason Heyward or Ben Gamel. Someone cheap and left-handed to play some corner OF.

• Bregman leaves and the market at 3B is dry. Like really dry.
• Sign Kim. (5/100 or 4/74) He plays elite anywhere in the INF. His offense is league avg, but we can't afford to have a hole in the lineup. We don't lose a step on defense and don't have to commit 160+ M.
• Sign Christian Walker to be the everyday 1B. (3/51 or 3/54) Above Avg on O. Pretty damn strong on D at 1B. Aging perfectly well.
• Same in the OF. Cheap LHH.

• Same as above (Bregman gone, Kim signed), but no Walker.
• Don't go cheap in the OF. Get Profar. (3/45) Broke out last year. Risk him being able to do it again.
• Platoon Dezenzo & Singleton at 1B.

• Bregman leaves. Make do with Dubon and minor leagues at 3B.
• Go get the Polar Bear. (7/140 or 5/125)
• Same in the OF. Cheap LHH.

• Bregman leaves. Make do with Dubon and minor leagues at 3B.
• Platoon Singleton & Dezenzo.
• Give Soto 600 M and let's ride. (12/576 or 13/585)
• Trade Tucker for prospects.

• Trade Pressly. Get the money off the books.
• Get more arms. Whoever we can project. Don't send crazy money.

Farmer1906 said:

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My offseason plans:

Plan A

• Bring back Breggy. (5/140 or 6/162) No explanation is needed. This deal eats up the large majority of the FA money.
• Sign Paul Goldschmidt to platoon at 1B with Singleton. He was just league-average last year, but he hit 134 wRC+ vs LHP (Singleton 124 vs RHP). He's already made 163 M. He's from the Woodlands. He's already 37. Come on home on the cheap.
• Being back Jason Heyward or Ben Gamel. Someone cheap and left-handed to play some corner OF.

Plan B

• Bregman leaves and the market at 3B is dry. Like really dry.
• Sign Kim. (5/100 or 4/74) He plays elite anywhere in the INF. His offense is league avg, but we can't afford to have a hole in the lineup. We don't lose a step on defense and don't have to commit 160+ M.
• Sign Christian Walker to be the everyday 1B. (3/51 or 3/54) Above Avg on O. Pretty damn strong on D at 1B. Aging perfectly well.
• Same in the OF. Cheap LHH.

Plan B.2

• Same as above (Bregman gone, Kim signed), but no Walker.
• Don't go cheap in the OF. Get Profar. (3/45) Broke out last year. Risk him being able to do it again.
• Platoon Dezenzo & Singleton at 1B.

Plan C

• Bregman leaves. Make do with Dubon and minor leagues at 3B.
• Go get the Polar Bear. (7/140 or 5/125)
• Same in the OF. Cheap LHH.

Plan D

• Bregman leaves. Make do with Dubon and minor leagues at 3B.
• Platoon Singleton & Dezenzo.
• Give Soto 600 M and let's ride. (12/576 or 13/585)
• Trade Tucker for prospects.

Parts of all the plans:

• Trade Pressly. Get the money off the books.
• Get more arms. Whoever we can project. Don't send crazy money.

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3. Alex Bregman: Seven years, $182MM

Tim: Blue Jays / Anthony: Astros / Darragh: Astros / Steve: Mariners

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13. Christian Walker: Three years, $60MM

Tim: Tigers / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Yankees / Steve: Astros

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35. Paul Goldschmidt: One year, $15MM

Tim: Astros / Anthony: Diamondbacks / Darragh: Tigers / Steve: Diamondbacks

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39. Michael Soroka: Two years, $14MM

Tim: Astros / Anthony: Brewers / Darragh: Dodgers / Steve: Dodgers

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Wabs said:

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I'd be ok with a 6 year deal for Breggy. Less money in the last 2 years.

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Farmer1906 said:

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Wabs said:

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I'd be ok with a 6 year deal for Breggy. Less money in the last 2 years.

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I could see that.

Something like:

12 signing bonus
28
28
24
24
20
20

Altuve is getting:

15 signing bonus
30
30
30
10
10

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