Pahdz said:

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For me, I'm 45, my grandma who lived with us until I was in HS, giant Astros fan, hate the Dodgers with a passion. Nobody likes the Yankees either, but couple that old Dodgers hate with all their actions since 2017, to me it's an easy decision.

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It is horrifying to hear you are 45, given that I knew you when you were 17/18.

The only good thing to come from a Dodgers WS win would be Shohei getting a ring.

That's about it

Only reason I'm hoping the Dodgers win is my son played HS ball with one of their players. He's a good guy and comes from a good family.

Sorry old man

tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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redline248 said:

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tjack16 said:

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TarponChaser said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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gambochaman said:

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Tucker and yordan need to bat 3/4

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I prefer 1/2.

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They were 42-24 with Bregman hitting second, 40-44 with either Tucker or Alvarez there.

They score 5.27 runs a game with Bregman 2nd, under 5 with the other 2.

What analytics are we talking about, because they're wrong

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Never understood Yordan batting 2nd

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Did you also not understand Ohtani batting 1st or 2nd all year? Witt hit 2nd all year. Freaking Kyle Schwarber bat leadoff all year, and he struck out 196 times while doing it.

Traditional way of looking at lineups aren't that important.

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Your argument doesn't really compute with Ohtani and Witt. Ohtani just stole 50 bases, and Witt is probably one of the fastest guys on his team. They both make sense as a leadoff or number two hitter.

Schwarber is the closest comparison, but I also think hitting leadoff would be bad for Yordan as well

I would've been a fan of Tucker hitting second and Yordan third. That's what I would've done.

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Soto? Correa? Seager? Tatis? Turner? Reynolds? Betts (when Ohtani wasn't). Not exactly a who's who of SB fiends in the 2 hole. All with arguments as the best hitter or one of the best few hitters in their team.

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All I said was, I don't understand it, and I personally wouldn't do it. Doesn't mean anybody is wrong and it doesn't mean anybody's right. Just simply stated I would not have done it. Also, the comparison was Ohtani, Witt and Schwarber. One of those is not like the others in terms of speed.

I would want Yordan up with as many people on base as possible given how we suck with runners in scoring position and he's one of the few clutch guys on the team.

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This is a good explanation. It's not an unjustified decision based on what everyone else is doing but is it right for the Astros and Yordan?

Yes it's only a one year data set but Yordan had his most AB's ever this year. His avg/obp/slg were in line with previous seasons. Hit 35 HR's, same as normal. K's and BB were in line with past years. But for his full seasons (since 2020) he had the fewest RBI and second lowest number of runs. We don't have Freeman, Hernandez, Smith and Muncy following him to drive in runs. He needed to be the guy to do that especially with Tucker out. I don't think he came up with enough runners on base in the 2 hole and others who don't drive the ball did.

Taxman90 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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redline248 said:

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tjack16 said:

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TarponChaser said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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gambochaman said:

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Tucker and yordan need to bat 3/4

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I prefer 1/2.

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They were 42-24 with Bregman hitting second, 40-44 with either Tucker or Alvarez there.

They score 5.27 runs a game with Bregman 2nd, under 5 with the other 2.

What analytics are we talking about, because they're wrong

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Never understood Yordan batting 2nd

---

Did you also not understand Ohtani batting 1st or 2nd all year? Witt hit 2nd all year. Freaking Kyle Schwarber bat leadoff all year, and he struck out 196 times while doing it.

Traditional way of looking at lineups aren't that important.

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Your argument doesn't really compute with Ohtani and Witt. Ohtani just stole 50 bases, and Witt is probably one of the fastest guys on his team. They both make sense as a leadoff or number two hitter.

Schwarber is the closest comparison, but I also think hitting leadoff would be bad for Yordan as well

I would've been a fan of Tucker hitting second and Yordan third. That's what I would've done.

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Soto? Correa? Seager? Tatis? Turner? Reynolds? Betts (when Ohtani wasn't). Not exactly a who's who of SB fiends in the 2 hole. All with arguments as the best hitter or one of the best few hitters in their team.

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All I said was, I don't understand it, and I personally wouldn't do it. Doesn't mean anybody is wrong and it doesn't mean anybody's right. Just simply stated I would not have done it. Also, the comparison was Ohtani, Witt and Schwarber. One of those is not like the others in terms of speed.

I would want Yordan up with as many people on base as possible given how we suck with runners in scoring position and he's one of the few clutch guys on the team.

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This is a good explanation. It's not an unjustified decision based on what everyone else is doing but is it right for the Astros and Yordan?

Yes it's only a one year data set but Yordan had his most AB's ever this year. His avg/obp/slg were in line with previous seasons. Hit 35 HR's, same as normal. K's and BB were in line with past years. But for his full seasons (since 2020) he had the fewest RBI and second lowest number of runs. We don't have Freeman, Hernandez, Smith and Muncy following him to drive in runs. He needed to be the guy to do that especially with Tucker out. I don't think he came up with enough runners on base in the 2 hole and others who don't drive the ball did.

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It is kind of a chicken or the egg paradox.

We all agree that 2022's offense was a little better than 2024. Yet why did we have 127 more PA with RISP in 24 than in 22? I think its as simple as more PAs for the good hitters. That is not just Yordan in the 2 hole some, but in the back of the lineup, resting guys, and PHing.

**** the Dodgers.

If had to pick between the Dodgers and Yankees, I lean LAD. I like Freeman and think it would be good for the sport if Ohtani is front and center on the world stage. I can't find a bright spot if the Yankees win.

I tend to agree. For all the whining both squads do, and the level of entitlement both franchises show, the Dodgers players on the whole rank slightly more tolerable to me.

Farmer1906 said:

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If had to pick between the Dodgers and Yankees, I lean LAD. I like Freeman and think it would be good for the sport if Ohtani is front and center on the world stage. I can't find a bright spot if the Yankees win.

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This

the #1 problem with the Dodgers or Yankees winning the title...

it's a big feather in the cap to the mega-contracts...and that's not good for baseball

I'd take NYY over the Dodgers. Already seen NYY win numerous titles...one more won't kill me

W said:

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the #1 problem with the Dodgers or Yankees winning the title...

it's a big feather in the cap to the mega-contracts...and that's not good for baseball

I'd take NYY over the Dodgers. Already seen NYY win numerous titles...one more won't kill me

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Yes and no for NY. They've given out huge deals, but only Stanton is on the backside of his.

The Yankees window is 2024. After this year, they'll have 9 free agents to pay with a payroll already about at the luxury tax. Soto will cost 500 M and their offense can't afford not to have him after the success with him. I think 35 M AAV is the floor for Soto. If they want to stay at the top of the AL, they're going to have to carry a 300 M payroll moving forward.

Yes, but they can do that. Their media revenue stream allows them that kind of flexibility.

And that's the rub. Everyone has a different media revenue stream. NYY and LAD can afford to give out insane contracts and they can afford to have some misses. Other teams can't.

True. They can. But recent history says they won't.

From 2018 on
179 91% of luxury tax
212 103%
250 120%
201 96%
245 107%
273 117%
302 125%

Over the last 7 years they have been around 108% of the tax and would occasionally reset it. Are they willing to commit to 120% plus moving forward? Even if they are, they're going to put themselves in a real ****ty spot on 26-28 when Cole, Judge, Rodon hit their mid 30s with no money to spend elsewhere.

I think this year proved that you don't have to spend crazy money on SP. There are effective ways to get around it. Just look at Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa, Milwaukee, and even LA with all those injuries. None have a traditional rotation. All are willing to play matchups. All near the bottom of SP innings yet near the top of the league ERA. I hope we start to embrace this. I still believe in my idea of a piggyback starting rotation.

This is like picking which Kardashian I'd rather get an STD from, but I don't want LA to have a chance at having a dynasty and don't think NY is a threat to pull off another one.

I think you're thinking too literally. Just because it didn't get you to a title, doesn't mean it didn't work well or can't be a part of a title team. DET scored an average of 2.6 runs per game vs Cleveland who is doing a similar process.

In a perfect world, you sign a bunch of aces and they all go 6-7 a night. But that isn't realistic and with how injury prone SP is, its a risky investment.

Here was my idea last offseason:

Quote:

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Rotation A
Verlander
Framber
Javier
Brown
France

Rotation B
Urquidy
Bielak
Arrighetti

Bullpen
Pressly
Abreu
Montero
Sousa
Coleman

Like normal, Rotation A goes every 5th day. They give you around 5 innings.

Rotation B isn't quite set in stone going every 5th day. Occasionally they rest 3 days, instead of 4.. They target 3 innings (once thru the order plus) and piggyback off the starter. They are used regularly. No skipping to overuse the bullpen.

Finally, the Bullpen is used as normal. Close-out games. Relieve the starter and finish the inning so rotation B can start in a fresh inning. Or when Rotation B isn't pitching they finish the last 3 to 4 innings.

When you want to ramp down for a key starter, they move from rotation A to B or are limited to 50-70 pitches in a few starts and the Rotation B arm is expected to ramp up from 40-50 piches to 60+ for a game. This takes advantage of how many starters we have, it limited pitches per outing to hopefully keep guys healthy, and avoids having guys push to a 3rd time thru the lineup when they're not on.

I quickly did the math and I don't think anyone role gets overused.

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The Astros could do something similar in 2025.

Rotation A
Framber
Brown
Blanco
Arrighetti
Kikichu (sign)

Rotation B
McCullers
France
Garcia
Javier (once he comes back and builds up)

Bullpen
Hader
Abreu
Pressly
Scott
best cheap lefty you can find

Rotation A sees the lineup 2x. The very first sign of trouble (even if its hard-hit outs), they're gone and a deliver who matches up best comes in.

Rotation B sees the lineup 1x, maybe a little more depending on the situation.

Baseball has already figured out how badly pitchers do when batters see them more than 1-2 times.

League Avg / Astros
1st Time
.305 / .307 wOBA
3.92 / 3.71 FIP

2nd Time
.316 / .290 wOBA
4.21 / 3.92 FIP

3rd Time
.330 / .310 wOBA
4.51 / 4.55 FIP

You replace the 3rd time through with an inning from rotation B which theoretically should be very good more like the 1st time thru. And you're able to keep guys fresher and healthier.

I've (we've?) always thought this to be true, interesting to see the data behind it.

The third-time-thru-the-order penalty guides a lot of decision making regarding SPs, but there's a postseason dynamic regarding bullpen arms we should also pay attention to. The more hitters see relievers in a series, they better they hit: pic.twitter.com/tNnvJMT5Qk

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) October 16, 2024

is the Y axis doing a lot of work here?

clearly a trend but still

This ump is horrendous