R-Dog said:
Remember, it's the difference in run expectancy...not what actually ended up happening. So that missed call included the difference between nobody on and one out and a runner at 1st with nobody out.
And then you accumulate that difference for every one of those missed calls...so 0.2 is reasonable
No it's not. No outs and 1 on 1st versus no outs and no one on, that difference alone is .831 versus .243. That's 0.57 runs. And since Seager homered after it cleared the bases. The next difference between no one on and 0 outs versus no one on and 1 out is 0.461 versus 0.243. That's another .0.22 runs.
That one call all by itself is basically a 0.8 run expectancy call. It's just about the 1 real run they got off of Semien.