concerning

Since you brought it up...Any scuttlebutt you heard lately?

Nothing new that I can share. Things have been fairly quiet- which doesn't mean things aren't happening obviously.

95% of trade deadline deals are executed in the final week of July- with most of those happening in the final 24 hours.

It would be nice to improve ASAP to effect more games, but its not typically the way that this goes.

Yup. Don't get comfortable. Go get help.

Here are the teams with ~10% or less chance to make the playoffs per FanGraphs:

• Pirates (10.6%)
• Cubs
• Rays
• Rangers
• Blue Jays
• Tigers
• Nationals
• Angels
• White Sox
• Athletics
• Rockies
• Marlins

From that list here are the top 10 arms per xFIP (min 30 IP)

• Mason Miller - too pricey and Hader wouldn't take the demotion well.
• Paul Skenes - not even close to being available
• David Robertson - Rangers would be dumb not to move him. Older, but he's been great. 11.5 M this year, mutual option next.
• Jack Flaherty - He's having a career year. 14 M this year, free agent next. Probably the #1 target for all playoff teams.
• Garrett Crochet - Young, nasty, and under control for '25, '26, & '27. Going to cost more than Miller. I hope we're willing to go all in here. He's the top of the rotation arm we need for the next 3 years.
• Kevin Kelly - Rays are a pitching factory. Not available since he's so cheap, but his emergence makes others available potentially.
• Tarik Skubal - not available. Stud.
• Hunter Harvey - Don't let the 4+ ERA fool you. He's good. Probably the exact type of arm we need to add to the bullpen.
• Will Vest - Not available & not great stuff.
• Kyle Finnegan - The opposite of Harvey on the Nats. Low 2 ERA. Probably regressing soon.

I think Flaherty & Crochet end up being too expensive for us. I would target the Rays. They're not making the postseason. They are so stacked with arms. In 2025, they will be 9 deep in the rotation between Eflin, Civale, Bradley, Littell, Pepiot, McClanahan, Rasmussen, Springs, & Baz.

• McClanahan, Rasmussen, Bardley, Pepiot, & Baz will be back too late & have too much cheap control.
• Eflin is the most expensive and thus most likely to be available (11 M in '24, 18 M in '25). He's also good, not great. He just refuses to walk anyone & gets you a ton of ground balls.
• Springs is who I want the most. He flashed a true breakout in shorten '23 after a strong '22. He's back on rehab assignments and looking good again. He's got 2.5 years left @ 5.25 M, 10.5 M, & 10.5 M. Less than market value but not free. He'd cost a ton in prospects but could be worth it. A less hyped Crochet.
• Littell & Civale are just guys. Both should be attainable without breaking the bank, but they're more back-end starts.

A couple other SP names that may work Eovaldi, Blackburn, Sandoval, & Mize.

Marvin said:

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Way too many walks issued by the Astros pitchers. Not too many strike out pitchers, either (I think), so need to keep getting those DP grounders.

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You're right, but we have shown a consistent improvement each month in walks.

I've actually heard the Astros linked to Hunter Harvey. Not sure if any progress was made but they were at the very least reaching out.

Farmer1906 said:

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June Pitching

• 3.54 ERA (5th)
• 4.29 FIP (21st)
• 4.09 xFIP (20th)
• 3.95 SIERA (20th)
• 14.1% K-BB% (18th)
• 1.21 WHIP (8th)
• -0.74 ERA-FIP (28th)
• 87.7 EV (2nd)
• 7.8% Barrel % (16th)
• 36.7% Hard Hit% (10th)

We had an outstanding month of pitching. We have improved in a lot of areas from Mar-May to June. BUT I worry it's not easily repeatable the rest of the season. See the large gap in ERA & FIP and overall average K-BB%. We're going to have to keep improving if we want to hope and keep the top 10 ERA & WHIP.

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The soft contact rate probably helps keep the WHIP down, and I would guess that is probably one of the easier things to continue. Obviously, fatigue on arms would hurt pitch control and could lead to more hard contact.

Couple Angels I don't see mentioned. It's within the division but the Angels are so far off from being competitive anytime soon it shouldn't inhibit a deal getting done for either side.

Tyler Anderson and Matt Moore

Anderson has been good and is in year 2 of a 3 year deal making $13 mil per.

Moore hasn't been all that great but he's a rental who could give you innings out of the pen and make a spot start here and there if needed. Not a huge piece but more a cheap innings eater.

it's amazing and shocking how many players are falling off cliffs nowadays

he lost it at age 30

and looking closer at Anderson's career stats...

one thing that really stands out -- he had a very low walk ratio

in his 2021 all-star season...he walked 22 times in 551 plate appearances

and for his career...only walked 150 times in over 4,000 plate appearances -- that is not easy to do

Ag_07 said:

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Couple Angels I don't see mentioned. It's within the division but the Angels are so far off from being competitive anytime soon it shouldn't inhibit a deal getting done for either side.

Tyler Anderson and Matt Moore

Anderson has been good and is in year 2 of a 3 year deal making $13 mil per.

Moore hasn't been all that great but he's a rental who could give you innings out of the pen and make a spot start here and there if needed. Not a huge piece but more a cheap innings eater.

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Both good pulls.

Christian Moore trash talking Cortez during the CWS reminded me of Anderson doing the same during the '21 ALDS in Houston. Just loudmouth foolishness.

It was pretty much only a matter of time

During the rain delay the other game they showed the game last year in Arlington that we were up 10-0 and ended up winning 12-11, I think. I remember watching that game and freaking out watching Javier give up like 6-7 runs and Dusty just leaving him in.

Regardless, I was in Galveston and think we swept that series against the rangers and will be back down there again this week. Hopefully we'll have another sweep!

W said:

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it's amazing and shocking how many players are falling off cliffs nowadays

he lost it at age 30

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I think it's just more only the best of the best continue to produce will into their 30s while the majority of MLB players reach their prime at 27 and drop off at 30 or a little afterward.

Basically, I don't think it's anything new in baseball and seems right in line to me.

What's the realistic timeline on his return? AA start, probably limited pitch count, and then at least another AA/AAA building that pitch count up. So we thinking he's 2-3 starts (10-15 days) assuming no setbacks?

right after the asb sounds good.

That's my guess. 10-15 days assuming no setbacks.

Needs to be in sugarland on the 4th.

Only because I'm going to that game and sitting by the dugout.

~egon

Vibes will hit 100 when Luis is back.

Source: Johnny Cueto has opted out of his minor league contract with the Rangers and is a free agent. https://t.co/utRiIfgTk3

— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) July 2, 2024